East Carolina Pirates

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East Carolina Pirates is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -3.4. East Carolina Pirates enters the season with a power rating of -3.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The East Carolina Pirates host App State next in Week 2. In 2025, East Carolina Pirates went 9-4 overall, 8-4-1 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.

Conference: American Athletic Conference
Stadium: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Power Rating (most current): -3.4
HFA Rating:2.4 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 0-1
2026 ATS: 0-1
2026 O/U: 1-0

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the East Carolina Pirates Power Rating of -3.4 is 3.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. East Carolina Pirates have logged 1,209 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,224 miles, ranking 103rd heaviest in the FBS.

East Carolina Pirates Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachBlake Harrell
Tenure1+ seasons
Record14-5
Offensive coordinatorJordan Davis
Defensive coordinatorsJordon Hankins, Roy Tesh

Offense

Mitch Griffis QB, Emory Williams QB, Brock Spalding WR, Landon Sides WR, Ja'Keith Hamilton WR, Ray Ray Joseph WR, TJ Engleman Jr. RB, Ashton Gray RB, Michael Allen OL, Brandon Best OL, Hayes Creel OL, Ethan Kramer OL, Bryce Weaver OL

Defense

Jasiyah Robinson DL, Rion Roseborough DL, Preston Carr DL, DJ Johnson Jr. LB, Crews Law LB, Kevon Merrell CB, Ashton Levells-Mitchell CB, Zyeir Gamble S

Special teams

Andrew Conrad K, Tomas O'Halloran P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS8-4-1 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-12-01-1
Week 32-13-01-2
Week 42-23-11-3
Week 53-24-11-4
Week 73-34-1-11-5
Week 84-34-2-12-5
Week 105-35-2-13-5
Week 116-35-3-14-5
Week 127-36-3-15-5
Week 137-46-4-16-5
Week 148-47-4-16-6
Postseason9-48-4-16-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +0.3 in the preseason and finished -3.4 after week 2, a move of -3.7 points. High +0.3 (the preseason), low -3.4 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from +0.3 to -3.4.

PreW2

East Carolina Pirates SP+ Profile

Offence+24.284 of 138higher is better
Defence+26.071 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.286 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.4 pts
HFA measured+2.0 pts
HFA applied+2.4 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
App State30-31-2
Old Dominion44-03-1
Rice10-10-1
Memphis53-22-3
Temple95-45-4
South Florida73-45-2
Charlotte31-20-3
Army21-12-0
Florida Atlantic33-03-0

No meeting on record since 2016: Alabama, North Carolina Central, UAB.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home29-3229-31-1 ATS · 61 games
On the road17-3827-27-1 ATS · 55 games
Neutral site4-04-0 ATS · 4 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

5,224 miles - ranked 103rd heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 5,224 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 05,224 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Alabama604 mi1,209 mi
Week 2App StateHome1,209 mi
Week 3Old Dominion107 mi1,423 mi
Week 4North Carolina CentralHome1,423 mi
Week 5-Bye
Week 6RiceHome1,423 mi
Week 7UAB557 mi2,536 mi
Week 8Memphis713 mi3,962 mi
Week 9TempleHome3,962 mi
Week 10South FloridaHome3,962 mi
Week 11Charlotte191 mi4,344 mi
Week 12Army440 mi5,224 mi
Week 13Florida AtlanticHome5,224 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

East Carolina Pirates Season Outlook

A brutal opener exposed the offensive line and run game

East Carolina opened the season with a 48-10 loss at Alabama, and the numbers were stark. The Pirates managed just 162 total yards, five first downs, and were 0 for 9 on third down. The running game was nonexistent, gaining only 2 yards on 22 carries, the fewest Alabama has allowed to an FBS opponent since 2021. Quarterback Mitch Griffis completed 10 of 16 passes for 137 yards with a touchdown and an interception, but he had little help from a rebuilt offensive line that featured transfers Brandon Best, Hayes Creel, and Ethan Kramer. The line was expected to be a work in progress after losing multiple starters, and Alabama's elite front seven made that clear. The lone touchdown came after a 66-yard pass to Tyler Johnson set up a 1-yard score by Jeremiah Melvin, but sustained drives were almost nonexistent.

Quarterback competition may not be settled after Week 1

Mitch Griffis got the start against Alabama and played the majority of the game, but the lopsided score and lack of production could reopen the quarterback debate. Emory Williams, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound transfer from Miami, was expected to push Griffis throughout the season. Head coach Blake Harrell did not name a starter until the opener, and the offense's struggles in Tuscaloosa were not entirely Griffis's fault, given the pressure he faced. Still, with a home game against Appalachian State next, the coaching staff may give Williams a longer look if Griffis continues to struggle. The quarterback who can best handle pressure and make quick decisions will be critical, especially with a deep receiving corps that includes Brock Spalding, Landon Sides, and Ja'Keith Hamilton.

Defense showed resilience but was overwhelmed by Alabama's athletes

East Carolina's defense, coordinated by Jordon Hankins, was expected to be aggressive and create negative plays, but Alabama's offense was too much. The Crimson Tide rolled up 480 yards and 27 first downs, with quarterback Keelon Russell accounting for 335 yards and a touchdown. The Pirates did force a fumble, but they could not get off the field on third down, allowing Alabama to sustain drives. The front seven, which lost most of its starters from a unit that ranked 26th nationally in rushing defense last year, struggled to contain Alabama's running game, which totaled 227 yards. Jasiyah Robinson, the only returning starter up front, and linebacker DJ Johnson Jr. will need to lead a more consistent effort against less talented opponents. The secondary, featuring transfers Ashton Levells-Mitchell and Zyeir Gamble, was tested deep and gave up several big plays, including a 58-yard catch.

Home opener against App State is a critical bounce-back opportunity

East Carolina returns home to face Appalachian State in Week 2, a game that should be far more competitive than the Alabama matchup. The Pirates are favored by 7 points, and the prediction market gives them a 74% chance to win. App State is 1-0 but has a lower power rating, and the Pirates will have the advantage of playing in Greenville, where they have been strong under Blake Harrell. This game will be a true test of whether the offense can function against a less dominant defense, and whether the running game can get on track. The coaching staff will likely simplify the game plan and lean on the deep receiving corps to create explosive plays. A win would restore confidence and keep the season on track, while a loss would raise serious questions about the team's ability to compete in the American Athletic Conference.

Season outlook hinges on offensive line development and quarterback play

The rest of the season will depend on how quickly the offensive line can gel and whether the quarterback position can provide consistent play. The Pirates have a favorable schedule after the Alabama game, with several winnable conference matchups, but they cannot afford to be one-dimensional. The running back duo of TJ Engleman Jr. and Ashton Gray, who combined for solid production last year, needs more opportunities and better blocking. The receiving corps is deep and talented, but they need time to get open downfield. Defensively, the Pirates must generate more pressure and create turnovers to compensate for any offensive struggles. Head coach Blake Harrell has a 14-5 record and a history of bowl success, but this team is young and still finding its identity. If the line improves and the quarterback settles in, East Carolina could surprise in the AAC. If not, it could be a long season in Greenville.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is East Carolina Pirates's against-the-spread record in 2026?

East Carolina Pirates is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is East Carolina Pirates's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

East Carolina Pirates holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -3.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is East Carolina Pirates's home field advantage rating?

East Carolina Pirates's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is East Carolina Pirates's 2026 win total?

East Carolina Pirates's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +125 over and -155 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does East Carolina Pirates travel in 2026?

East Carolina Pirates travels 5,224 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 103rd heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

East Carolina Pirates: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -3.4 (2026 records).