East Carolina Pirates is 3-4 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -6.0. East Carolina Pirates's games are hitting the under at 71% this season (5-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The East Carolina Pirates host Temple next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the East Carolina Pirates Power Rating of -6.0 is 6.0 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. East Carolina Pirates have logged 3,962 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,224 miles, ranking 103rd heaviest in the FBS.
East Carolina Pirates Coaching Staff and Key Players
Head coachBlake Harrell
Tenure1+ seasons
Record14-5
Offensive coordinatorJordan Davis
Defensive coordinatorsJordon Hankins, Roy Tesh
Offense
Mitch Griffis QB, Emory Williams QB, Brock Spalding WR, Landon Sides WR, Ja'Keith Hamilton WR, Ray Ray Joseph WR, TJ Engleman Jr. RB, Ashton Gray RB, Michael Allen OL, Brandon Best OL, Hayes Creel OL, Ethan Kramer OL, Bryce Weaver OL
Defense
Jasiyah Robinson DL, Rion Roseborough DL, Preston Carr DL, DJ Johnson Jr. LB, Crews Law LB, Kevon Merrell CB, Ashton Levells-Mitchell CB, Zyeir Gamble S
Special teams
Andrew Conrad K, Tomas O'Halloran P
2025 Season in Review
Record9-4ATS8-4-1O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
After
Record
ATS
O/U
Week 1
0-1
1-0
0-1
Week 2
1-1
2-0
1-1
Week 3
2-1
3-0
1-2
Week 4
2-2
3-1
1-3
Week 5
3-2
4-1
1-4
Week 7
3-3
4-1-1
1-5
Week 8
4-3
4-2-1
2-5
Week 10
5-3
5-2-1
3-5
Week 11
6-3
5-3-1
4-5
Week 12
7-3
6-3-1
5-5
Week 13
7-4
6-4-1
6-5
Week 14
8-4
7-4-1
6-6
Postseason
9-4
8-4-1
6-7
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics'
own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season
to the next - see
most underrated and
overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
2026 Power Rating Trajectory
Opened +0.3 in the preseason and finished -6.0 after week 8, a move of -6.3 points. High +0.3 (the preseason), low -6.0 (week 8).
PreW8
East Carolina Pirates SP+ Profile
Offence+24.284 of 138higher is better
Defence+26.071 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.286 of 138higher is better
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the
systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip
Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower
figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for
that.
How Confident Is This Rating?
Sources blended5
Source spread±3.4 pts
HFA measured+2.0 pts
HFA applied+2.4 pts
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
Record Against 2026 Opponents
Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025.
Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
Slow start, steady climb: ECU has clawed back to .500
East Carolina opened with a 48-10 loss at Alabama and a 27-24 home defeat to App State, but has since won three of four to reach 3-3. The Pirates are 1-1 in American Conference play after a 28-12 win over Rice and a 30-17 overtime loss at UAB. The offense has found its footing after a disastrous start, and the defense has shown it can flip games with takeaways. The next test is a road trip to Memphis, where the Pirates will try to avoid falling below .500 in conference play.
Ground game has become the offense's engine
After managing just 2 rushing yards on 22 carries at Alabama, ECU has leaned on its running backs and rebuilt offensive line. Ashton Gray ran for 99 yards on 16 carries against App State, TJ Engleman Jr. had 99 yards on 16 carries at Old Dominion, then 129 yards on 10 carries with an 88-yard score against North Carolina Central, and 136 yards with a 43-yard fourth-quarter touchdown against Rice. Engleman added 104 yards on 26 carries at UAB. The line, featuring transfers Brandon Best, Hayes Creel, and Ethan Kramer, has gelled after a rocky start, and the run game has given quarterback Emory Williams manageable third downs and play-action opportunities.
Takeaway-driven defense is finding its identity
The preseason scouting report emphasized ECU's aggressive run fits and back-end pressure, but early on the defense struggled to generate turnovers. That changed in Week 3: Ayden Duncanson's 67-yard pick-six tied the Old Dominion game, and he added a 20-yard interception return for a touchdown against North Carolina Central. Julien Davis's interception against Rice set up a touchdown that made it 28-9. The Pirates have forced turnovers in bunches during their winning stretch, and that has masked some of the yardage they allow. The defense still gives up big plays, but its ability to create short fields for the offense has been a key swing factor.
Red-zone execution remains the biggest swing factor
ECU's red-zone woes cost it the App State game: a fumble in the red zone led directly to a Mountaineers touchdown, and an interception at the App State 9-yard line with 2:16 left could not be converted into points until it was too late. Against Rice, the Pirates scored touchdowns on three of four red-zone trips, including a 12-yard Emory Williams run and two Ray Ray Joseph touchdown catches. But at UAB, they settled for a field goal and then threw a late pick-six in overtime. Finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers is the difference between comfortable wins and narrow losses. Andrew Conrad's leg is reliable, but the offense needs to stop settling.
Schedule and travel will test the Pirates down the stretch
ECU has already logged 1,268 travel miles, including a 604-mile trip to Alabama and a 557-mile journey to UAB on a short week. The Pirates are 0-3 against the spread on the road and have not covered in any away game this season. The upcoming trip to Memphis is another 713 miles, and the Tigers are 5-2 with a power rating well above ECU's. The Pirates have been competitive at home, where they are 3-1, but their road struggles and the wear of travel could limit their ceiling in conference play. The next month will reveal whether ECU can translate its home success into road wins and contend in the American.
What is East Carolina Pirates's against-the-spread record in 2026?
East Carolina Pirates is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
What is East Carolina Pirates's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?
East Carolina Pirates holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -6.0, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
What is East Carolina Pirates's home field advantage rating?
East Carolina Pirates's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
What is East Carolina Pirates's 2026 win total?
East Carolina Pirates's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +125 over and -155 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
How many miles does East Carolina Pirates travel in 2026?
East Carolina Pirates travels 5,224 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 103rd heaviest in the FBS.
How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
East Carolina Pirates: 3-4 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -6.0 (2026 records).
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