Florida State Seminoles

Florida State sits at 3-3 after six games, with wins over New Mexico State, Central Arkansas, and Virginia, and losses to SMU, Alabama, and Louisville. The Seminoles have yet to cover a spread in a loss and have covered just twice all season (2-3-1 ATS). The offense has shown it can score in bunches, putting up 30 or more points in four of six games, but the defense has been a sieve against quality quarterbacks. The team's power rating has fluctuated from a high of 8.69 after Week 0 to a low of 5.44 after the Alabama loss, settling at 9.76 after the Louisville game. This is a team that can dominate inferior opponents but has yet to prove it can consistently compete with Power 4 programs.

Quarterback Ashton Daniels has been a dual-threat revelation at times, setting a Florida State record with five rushing touchdowns in the 38-7 win over Virginia, where he ran for a career-best 136 yards. However, his passing has been erratic, particularly under pressure. In the loss to SMU, he completed just 12 of 23 passes for 125 yards and failed to convert on the first 10 third-down attempts. Against Louisville, he threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed an interception. Daniels has shown he can function when protected, as evidenced by his 224-yard, two-touchdown performance against Central Arkansas, but the offensive line's struggles have made clean pockets a rarity. His ability to make plays with his legs has been a saving grace, but his inconsistency through the air remains a major concern.

Ousmane Kromah has been the most consistent weapon for Florida State, rushing for at least 80 yards in all five games he has played, including back-to-back 100-yard efforts to open the season (115 yards vs. New Mexico State, 116 vs. SMU). He has scored at least one touchdown in every game and has five total on the year. Samuel Singleton Jr. has been a versatile threat, contributing as a runner, receiver, and kick returner, with a 65-yard reception against Alabama and a 39-yard touchdown catch against SMU. The depth at running back, including Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner, gives the Seminoles a reliable ground game that can control the clock and keep opposing offenses off the field. This group will need to continue producing to take pressure off Daniels and the passing game.

Florida State's defense has been torched by every competent quarterback it has faced. New Mexico State's Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards and converted 10 of 16 third downs in the opener. SMU's Kevin Jennings carved up the Seminoles for a career-best 430 yards and three touchdowns. Even in the win over Virginia, the Cavaliers managed just 168 passing yards, but that was more a function of Virginia's ineptitude than Florida State's coverage. The transfer linebackers, Chris Jones and Mikai Gbayor, have not solved the issues over the middle, and the secondary, led by Ja'Bril Rawls and Ashlynd Barker, has been picked apart by lesser passers. On the other side, the rebuilt offensive line has allowed 16 sacks in five games and has struggled to protect Daniels consistently. The line's inability to create clean pockets has made the passing game one-dimensional and predictable. Until these two areas improve, the Seminoles will remain vulnerable against quality opponents.

Florida State's remaining schedule is daunting, starting with a trip to undefeated Miami, which boasts a 5-0 record and a power rating of 26.29. The Seminoles are 21-point underdogs and have just an 8 percent chance to win according to the prediction market. After that, they still have ACC matchups against Louisville, Virginia Tech, and others, plus a second bye. The team has not won a road game in over two years, a streak that will be tested mightily in Coral Gables. To have any chance at a bowl game, Florida State must find a way to steal a game or two on the road and protect its home field. The offense needs to lean on its running game and hope Daniels can make enough plays through the air, while the defense must tighten up its coverage and generate more pressure. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the Seminoles' postseason hopes hang in the balance.