Florida State Seminoles is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +6.8. Florida State Seminoles enters the season with a power rating of +6.8, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Florida State Seminoles host SMU next in Week 1. In 2025, Florida State Seminoles went 5-7 overall, 5-7 against the spread, and 5-7 on totals.
In Week 0 of 2026 the Florida State Seminoles Power Rating of +6.8 is 6.8 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Florida State Seminoles have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,071 miles, ranking 86th heaviest in the FBS.
Ashton Daniels QB, Duce Robinson WR, Micahi Danzy WR, Quintrevion Wisner RB, Ousmane Kromah RB, Samuel Singleton Jr. RB, Jasen Lopez WR, Devin Carter WR
Chris Jones LB, Mikai Gbayor LB, Darryll Desir DL, Mandrell Desir DL, Daniel Lyons DL, Rylan Kennedy EDGE, Ja'Bril Rawls CB, Ashlynd Barker S
Gabe Panikowski K, Daniel Hughes P, Caleb Bowers LS
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Week 11 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +12.9 in the preseason and finished +17.6 after the postseason, a move of +4.7 points. High +17.7 (week 15), low +11.2 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.5 is regressed to +3.0 before it is applied, a difference of 1.5 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Alabama | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Virginia | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1-1 |
| Louisville | 8 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Miami | 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Clemson | 9 | 1-8 | 2-6-1 |
| Boston College | 8 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| NC State | 8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Florida | 9 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: New Mexico State, Central Arkansas.
Week 06,071 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | New Mexico State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 1 | SMU | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | - | Bye | |
| Week 3 | Alabama | 270 mi | 540 mi |
| Week 4 | Central Arkansas | Home | 540 mi |
| Week 5 | Virginia | Home | 540 mi |
| Week 6 | Louisville | 542 mi | 1,624 mi |
| Week 7 | Miami | 396 mi | 2,415 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Clemson | Home | 2,415 mi |
| Week 10 | Boston College | 1,097 mi | 4,609 mi |
| Week 11 | Pittsburgh | 731 mi | 6,071 mi |
| Week 12 | NC State | Home | 6,071 mi |
| Week 13 | Florida | Home | 6,071 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Florida State opened 2026 with a 34-17 win over New Mexico State, but the performance did little to silence concerns about a rebuilt offense. Quarterback Ashton Daniels, a transfer from Auburn via Stanford, threw for 202 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and also ran for a score. The offensive line, which was replaced entirely for the second straight year, showed signs of inconsistency against a weak opponent. The running back committee, however, looked like a genuine strength: Ousmane Kromah broke a 52-yard run and finished with 115 yards on 14 carries, while Samuel Singleton Jr. added 42 rushing yards, 54 receiving yards, and a 46-yard kickoff return. The group's depth and explosiveness could carry the offense while the passing game and protection find their footing.
One of the few clear positives from the opener was Florida State's efficiency inside the 20. The Seminoles scored on all six red-zone trips, with four touchdowns and two field goals. That is a sharp turnaround from 2025, when they converted just 59.6% of red-zone possessions into touchdowns, ranking near the bottom of the FBS. The improvement is encouraging, but it came against a New Mexico State defense that was not expected to offer much resistance. The real test will come against SMU and Alabama, where the Seminoles will need to prove they can finish drives against stiffer competition.
Despite the comfortable win, Florida State's pass defense had clear issues. New Mexico State quarterback Trey Hedden completed 26 of 42 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns, with the Aggies converting 10 of 16 third-down attempts. The Seminoles struggled to defend the middle of the field, a concern that was not supposed to linger after the addition of transfer linebackers Chris Jones and Mikai Gbayor. The defense did hold New Mexico State to just 47 rushing yards on 23 carries, which is a positive sign, but the inability to get off the field on third down against a lower-tier offense is a red flag heading into ACC play.
Florida State's schedule does not get easier. After hosting SMU on Labor Day, the Seminoles travel to Alabama, and they have not won a road game in over two years. The team's 7-18 record since the 2023 College Football Playoff snub has put head coach Mike Norvell firmly on the hot seat. The opener was at home, where Florida State has been more competitive, but the upcoming stretch will test whether this revamped roster can handle adversity away from Doak Campbell Stadium. With two-game road trips later in the season, the Seminoles will need to break their road losing streak to have any chance at a bowl berth.
Florida State welcomed 62 new players this season, and the opener showed that some of the newcomers could make an impact beyond the starting lineup. Samuel Singleton Jr. was a standout on special teams, returning a kickoff 46 yards to set up a scoring drive. The return game also features dynamic threats like Micahi Danzy, Jasen Lopez, and Devin Carter, giving the Seminoles a chance to flip field position. The kicking game, with transfer Gabe Panikowski and punter Daniel Hughes, is still unproven, but the early returns on returns are promising. If the offense struggles to sustain drives, special teams could be the difference in close games.
Florida State Seminoles is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Florida State Seminoles holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +6.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Florida State Seminoles's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Florida State Seminoles's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +140 over and -180 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Florida State Seminoles travels 6,071 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 86th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Florida State Seminoles: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +6.8 (2026 records).
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