Missouri State Bears is 2-5 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -16.2. Missouri State Bears holds a power rating of -16.2, placing them in the weaker tier of the FBS and typically entering games as a significant underdog. The Missouri State Bears host Sam Houston next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Missouri State Bears Power Rating of -16.2 is 16.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Missouri State Bears have logged 4,377 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,532 miles, ranking 60th heaviest in the FBS.
Henry Belin IV QB, Skyler Locklear QB, Jmariyae Robinson WR, James BlackStrain WR, Makai Cope WR, Mekhi Miller WR, Ramone Green Jr. RB, Jambres Dubar RB, Jeron Askren TE, Dillon Hipp TE, James Rexroat TE, Isaiah Villanueva OL, Sebastian Espinoza OL, Makhete Gueye OL, Logan Scrivner OL
Jared Lloyd LB, Kellen Lindstrom EDGE, Jalile Elliott EDGE, Josh Lukusa EDGE, Caden Wiest EDGE, Tim Brantley Jr. DL, Markell Chapman DL, Cooper Roy LB, Austin Yelder LB, Jashawn Cooper LB, Martavis Blackmon LB, Dylan Dixson S, Christian Ford S, Joel Kpassou CB, Joel Boamah CB
Yousef Obeid K, Stewart McDonald P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 1-5 |
| Week 9 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 1-6 |
| Week 10 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 1-7 |
| Week 11 | 6-3 | 6-3 | 1-8 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 7-6 | 5-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -15.7 in the preseason and finished -16.2 after week 8, a move of -0.4 points. High -15.0 (week 5), low -18.3 (week 7).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| SMU | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Western Kentucky | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kennesaw State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Florida International | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| New Mexico State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Liberty | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Texas A&M, Lindenwood, Delaware, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State.
Week 07,532 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Texas A&M | 487 mi | 974 mi |
| Week 2 | Lindenwood | Home | 974 mi |
| Week 3 | Marshall | Home | 974 mi |
| Week 4 | SMU | 360 mi | 1,694 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Western Kentucky | 377 mi | 2,448 mi |
| Week 7 | Kennesaw State | Home | 2,448 mi |
| Week 8 | Delaware | 965 mi | 4,377 mi |
| Week 9 | Sam Houston | Home | 4,377 mi |
| Week 10 | Florida International | 1,094 mi | 6,566 mi |
| Week 11 | New Mexico State | Home | 6,566 mi |
| Week 12 | Jacksonville State | 483 mi | 7,532 mi |
| Week 13 | Liberty | Home | 7,532 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Casey Woods takes over in his first season, bringing experience from SMU, and has installed a system that blends returners with transfers. The offense has shown flashes of explosiveness, particularly in the run game, but consistency has been elusive. The defense, led by linebacker Jared Lloyd and safeties Dylan Dixson and Christian Ford, has struggled against high-powered passing attacks. The Bears are 2-4 overall and 1-1 in Conference USA play, with both wins coming at home.
The Bears have alternated between Henry Belin IV (Duke transfer) and Skyler Locklear (UTEP transfer) without settling on a full-time starter. Locklear was efficient in a 48-14 win over Lindenwood (17-of-20, 258 yards, 1 TD) but struggled under pressure at Western Kentucky (12-of-24, 89 yards, 1 INT). Belin provided a spark off the bench in that game and then delivered a career-high 300 passing yards and two touchdowns in the 24-21 win over Kennesaw State. The rotation remains the biggest swing factor for the offense.
Missouri State rushed for six touchdowns in the Lindenwood win, with Ramone Green Jr. scoring twice, Breezy Dubar and Isaiah Myers adding scores, and Connor Lair and Belin also finding the end zone. However, the ground game has been largely absent since, managing just 67 total yards at Texas A&M and struggling to establish itself against SMU and Western Kentucky. The rebuilt offensive line, relying on transfers Isaiah Villanueva and Sebastian Espinoza and returnees Makhete Gueye and Logan Scrivner, must generate push for the Bears to control tempo.
The Bears have faced some of the nation's best passing attacks and have been torched at times. They allowed 505 yards to Texas A&M, 592 yards to SMU (464 passing yards to Kevin Jennings), and 30 points to Marshall. The secondary, featuring portal corners Joel Kpassou and Joel Boamah and safeties Dylan Dixson and Christian Ford, has had mixed results. The front seven, anchored by Jared Lloyd, has not generated consistent pressure against quality offensive lines. Improvement on this side is crucial for the Bears to compete in conference play.
Kicker Yousef Obeid has been reliable, hitting a 35-yard field goal at SMU and the game-winning 20-yard field goal as time expired against Kennesaw State. Punter Stewart McDonald returns, and Jmariyae Robinson contributes in the return game. The Bears have shown an ability to create turnovers, such as Joel Boamah's 60-yard interception return for a touchdown at SMU, but they must limit mistakes (like Robinson's muffed punt against Texas A&M that led to a safety) to win close games.
Missouri State Bears is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Missouri State Bears holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -16.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Missouri State Bears's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Missouri State Bears's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at +125 over and -160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Missouri State Bears travels 7,532 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 60th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Missouri State Bears: 2-5 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -16.2 (2026 records).
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