Missouri State Bears

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Missouri State Bears is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -16.1. Missouri State Bears enters the season with a power rating of -16.1, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Missouri State Bears host Lindenwood next in Week 2. In 2025, Missouri State Bears went 7-6 overall, 7-6 against the spread, and 5-8 on totals.

Conference: Conference USA
Stadium: Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO
Power Rating (most current): -16.1
HFA Rating:2.5 pts
2026 Win Total:4.5
2026 Record: 0-1
2026 ATS: 0-1
2026 O/U: 0-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Missouri State Bears Power Rating of -16.1 is 16.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Missouri State Bears have logged 974 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,532 miles, ranking 60th heaviest in the FBS.

Missouri State Bears Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachCasey Woods
TenureFirst season
Offensive coordinatorMark Cala
Defensive coordinatorJack Curtis

Offense

Henry Belin IV QB, Skyler Locklear QB, Jmariyae Robinson WR, James BlackStrain WR, Makai Cope WR, Mekhi Miller WR, Ramone Green Jr. RB, Jambres Dubar RB, Jeron Askren TE, Dillon Hipp TE, James Rexroat TE, Isaiah Villanueva OL, Sebastian Espinoza OL, Makhete Gueye OL, Logan Scrivner OL

Defense

Jared Lloyd LB, Kellen Lindstrom EDGE, Jalile Elliott EDGE, Josh Lukusa EDGE, Caden Wiest EDGE, Tim Brantley Jr. DL, Markell Chapman DL, Cooper Roy LB, Austin Yelder LB, Jashawn Cooper LB, Martavis Blackmon LB, Dylan Dixson S, Christian Ford S, Joel Kpassou CB, Joel Boamah CB

Special teams

Yousef Obeid K, Stewart McDonald P

2025 Season in Review

Record7-6 ATS7-6 O/U5-8
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-11-0
Week 21-11-11-1
Week 31-22-11-2
Week 42-23-11-3
Week 52-33-21-4
Week 73-33-31-5
Week 94-34-31-6
Week 105-35-31-7
Week 116-36-31-8
Week 127-37-32-8
Week 137-47-43-8
Week 147-57-54-8
Postseason7-67-65-8

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2025 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -14.5 in the preseason and finished -9.9 after the postseason, a move of +4.6 points. High -9.9 (the postseason), low -16.8 (week 0).

Line chart of the 2025 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 18 points, from -14.5 to -9.9.

PrePost

Missouri State Bears SP+ Profile

Offence+16.7122 of 138higher is better
Defence+34.9121 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5123 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.9 pts
HFA measured+2.5 pts
HFA applied+2.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Marshall11-01-0
SMU10-11-0
Western Kentucky10-10-1
Kennesaw State10-10-1
Florida International11-01-0
New Mexico State11-01-0
Liberty11-01-0

No meeting on record since 2016: Texas A&M, Lindenwood, Delaware, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home3-34-2 ATS · 6 games
On the road4-23-3 ATS · 6 games
Neutral site0-10-1 ATS · 1 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

7,532 miles - ranked 60th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 7,532 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 07,532 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Texas A&M487 mi974 mi
Week 2LindenwoodHome974 mi
Week 3MarshallHome974 mi
Week 4SMU360 mi1,694 mi
Week 5-Bye
Week 6Western Kentucky377 mi2,448 mi
Week 7Kennesaw StateHome2,448 mi
Week 8Delaware965 mi4,377 mi
Week 9Sam HoustonHome4,377 mi
Week 10Florida International1,094 mi6,566 mi
Week 11New Mexico StateHome6,566 mi
Week 12Jacksonville State483 mi7,532 mi
Week 13LibertyHome7,532 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Missouri State Bears Season Outlook

New staff, new quarterbacks, new identity

First-year head coach Casey Woods takes over a Missouri State program that went to the transfer portal late to fill key spots. The quarterback battle is between Duke transfer Henry Belin IV and UTEP transfer Skyler Locklear, both of whom bring different styles but are expected to fit the new offensive scheme. The Bears also added Tulsa transfer receiver Mekhi Miller and Boise State transfer running back Jambres Dubar to complement returning playmakers. The offense will look different from last year, but the coaching staff has a track record of scheming around available talent, as one opposing CUSA assistant noted.

Playmaking depth at receiver and tight end

Jmariyae Robinson returns after leading the team with 44 receptions and seven touchdown catches in 2025, giving the new quarterback a reliable top target. James BlackStrain and Makai Cope are also back, and Mekhi Miller adds another option from the portal. At tight end, Jeron Askren, Dillon Hipp, and James Rexroat give the Bears a deep group that can help in both the passing game and run blocking. This is the most experienced and talented position group on the roster, and it should be the focal point of the offense regardless of who is under center.

Offensive line is the biggest question mark

The Bears lost significant experience on the offensive line and will rely on transfers Isaiah Villanueva and Sebastian Espinoza to step in alongside returnees Makhete Gueye and Logan Scrivner. Depth is a concern, and the unit's ability to protect Belin or Locklear will determine whether the playmakers can be effective. The schedule opens with road trips to Texas A&M and SMU, which will be a brutal test for a rebuilt front five. If the line holds up, the skill positions should produce; if not, it could be a long season.

Defense has a star at linebacker and edge depth

Jared Lloyd returns as the centerpiece of the defense after tying for the team lead in tackles in 2025, and head coach Casey Woods has praised his offseason leadership. The edge group is deep with transfers Kellen Lindstrom, Jalile Elliott, and Josh Lukusa joining returnee Caden Wiest, who had two sacks last season. Tim Brantley Jr. anchors the defensive tackle spot, with Iowa State transfer Markell Chapman adding size. The safety duo of Dylan Dixson and Christian Ford combined for 102 tackles last year and are both back, giving the secondary a solid foundation. The cornerback position is less proven, with transfers Joel Kpassou and Joel Boamah expected to start.

Brutal early schedule will test the Bears before CUSA play

Missouri State opens with road games at Texas A&M and SMU, two Power Four opponents that will be heavy favorites. Those games will serve as a measuring stick for how far the new staff and roster have come, but they also risk exposing weaknesses, especially on the offensive line and at cornerback. After that, the Bears begin Conference USA play, where they will face more evenly matched opponents. The early nonconference slate could be demoralizing if the Bears get blown out, but it also gives the coaching staff a chance to evaluate and adjust before the games that matter most for the conference standings.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Missouri State Bears's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Missouri State Bears is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is Missouri State Bears's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Missouri State Bears holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -16.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Missouri State Bears's home field advantage rating?

Missouri State Bears's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Missouri State Bears's 2026 win total?

Missouri State Bears's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at +125 over and -160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Missouri State Bears travel in 2026?

Missouri State Bears travels 7,532 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 60th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Missouri State Bears: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -16.1 (2026 records).