Week 11
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Fresno State @ Texas State , Week 11, Nov 14, 2026

0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: -3.9
0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: -2.2

Is there value in the Fresno State vs Texas State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TXST -5.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors FRESfavors TXST ▸
TXST
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TXST
no impact
TXST
no impact
TXST
1 FRES1 TXST2 FRES2 TXST3 FRES3 TXSTModel: TXST -5.2

Texas State (power rating: -2.2) holds a 1.7-point advantage over Fresno State (-3.9) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Texas State's home field adds 2.9 points to that advantage at Bobcat Stadium (TX). Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from Fresno State's trip and the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Fresno State vs Texas State at Bobcat Stadium (TX)?

The latest reading for Bobcat Stadium (TX) shows Partly Cloudy, 81°F, heat index 84°F with winds of 14 mph. Gusts reaching 25 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Fresno State and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-2.2) over Fresno State (-3.9) by 1.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Texas State -5.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2026 Preliminary

Partly Cloudy

81°F

Rain9%
Precip0.00"
Humidity62%
Wind14 mph SSE
Gusts25 mph
Heat index84°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Fresno State at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the SSE at 13.9 mph, gusting to 24.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CST
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Fresno StateAway Texas StateHome
This week1,346 miles0 miles
Last week1,090 miles3,428 miles
Season total5,126 miles8,549 miles
Body clock13:0015:00
Rest6 days6 days

Fresno State travels 1,346 miles to this game, a significant road trip. Fresno State arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.