Louisville Cardinals

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Louisville Cardinals is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +12.8. Louisville Cardinals is covering at just 40% since the start of last season (8-12), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Louisville Cardinals host Stanford next in Week 9.

Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference
Stadium: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Power Rating (most current): +12.8
HFA Rating:3.3 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 6-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Louisville Cardinals Power Rating of +12.8 is 12.8 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Louisville Cardinals have logged 2,359 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,934 miles, ranking 119th heaviest in the FBS.

Louisville Cardinals Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJeff Brohm
Tenure3 seasons
Record at school28-12
Career record94-56 (12 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorBrian Brohm
Defensive coordinatorsSteve Ellis, Mark Ivey

Offense

Lincoln Kienholz QB, Davin Wydner QB, Isaac Brown RB, Tre Richardson WR, Lawayne McCoy WR, Brody Foley TE, Eryx Daugherty OL, Evan Wibberley OL, Jackson Voth WR

Defense

Clev Lubin EDGE, Tyler Thompson EDGE, Demeco Kennedy DL, T.J. Capers LB, Antonio Watts LB, Stanquan Clark LB, Koen Entringer S, Tayon Holloway CB

Special teams

Carson Hilbert K, Nick Keller K, Jacob Baker P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS4-9 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-11-0
Week 22-00-21-1
Week 43-00-32-1
Week 54-01-33-1
Week 64-11-43-2
Week 85-12-43-3
Week 96-12-54-3
Week 107-13-54-4
Week 117-23-65-4
Week 127-33-75-5
Week 137-43-85-6
Week 148-44-85-7
Postseason9-44-96-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +11.6 in the preseason and finished +12.8 after week 8, a move of +1.2 points. High +13.9 (week 4), low +10.1 (week 6).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +11.6 to +12.8.

PreW8

Louisville Cardinals SP+ Profile

Offence+30.636 of 138higher is better
Defence+19.726 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.254 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±1.5 pts
HFA measured+5.7 pts
HFA applied+3.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +5.7 is regressed to +3.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Ole Miss10-10-1
SMU20-20-2
Wake Forest74-34-3
NC State74-33-4
Florida State84-45-3
Syracuse75-25-2
Stanford10-10-1
Georgia Tech42-21-3
North Carolina11-01-0
Pittsburgh53-23-1-1
Kentucky93-63-6

No meeting on record since 2016: Villanova.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home43-2232-33 ATS · 65 games
On the road22-2620-27-1 ATS · 48 games
Neutral site8-74-11 ATS · 15 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

3,934 miles - ranked 119th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 3,934 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 03,934 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Ole Miss151 mi303 mi
Week 2VillanovaHome303 mi
Week 3SMUHome303 mi
Week 4Wake ForestHome303 mi
Week 5NC State423 mi1,149 mi
Week 6Florida StateHome1,149 mi
Week 7Syracuse605 mi2,359 mi
Week 8-Bye
Week 9StanfordHome2,359 mi
Week 10Georgia Tech315 mi2,989 mi
Week 11North Carolina403 mi3,795 mi
Week 12PittsburghHome3,795 mi
Week 13Kentucky69 mi3,934 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Louisville Cardinals Season Outlook

High-Powered Offense Led by Kienholz

Louisville's offense has been explosive, averaging 38 points per game. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, a transfer from Ohio State, has thrown for over 300 yards in multiple games and added a rushing threat. He became the first Louisville quarterback to throw for 300+ yards in his first two starts. The Cardinals have scored 38, 59, 41, 27, 28, and 44 points. They rank among the nation's best in total offense, with 537 yards against Florida State. The running game, led by Isaac Brown, has been inconsistent but showed signs of life with Brown's 235-yard outburst against Florida State. The offensive line, rebuilt with transfers, has struggled at times but has protected Kienholz well enough to produce big numbers.

Defensive Concerns: Secondary and Penalties

The Cardinals' defense has been vulnerable to explosive passing plays, surrendering 351 passing yards to Ole Miss, 225 to Wake Forest, and 373 to NC State. New safety Koen Entringer and corner Tayon Holloway have been beaten deep repeatedly. The pass rush, led by Clev Lubin and Tyler Thompson, has been inconsistent. Penalties have been a major issue, with Louisville committing 11 for 110 yards against SMU and nine for 90 yards against Wake Forest. These penalties have extended drives for opponents and killed Louisville's own drives. The defense has shown playmaking ability with interceptions (Kaleb Beasley had two against SMU) but needs to be more consistent.

Inconsistency and Costly Losses

Louisville has been inconsistent, suffering two straight losses to Wake Forest and NC State after a 2-1 start. Both losses were winnable games where the Cardinals made critical mistakes. Against Wake Forest, they missed a late field goal and had a punt blocked. Against NC State, they turned the ball over on downs and had a fumble. The team has yet to put together a complete game against a quality opponent. However, they bounced back with a dominant 44-20 win over Florida State, showing resilience. The Cardinals are 3-3 overall and 2-2 in ACC play, with a chance to build momentum.

Key Players and Emerging Stars

Isaac Brown has emerged as a big-play threat, rushing for 235 yards and two touchdowns against Florida State, including a 97-yard run. He leads the team in rushing despite a slow start. Keyjuan Brown has also contributed, with a 163-yard game against SMU. Receiver Tre Richardson had 117 yards against NC State, and Lawayne McCoy has been a deep threat. Tight end Jaleel Skinner has made big plays. On defense, Kaleb Beasley has been a ballhawk with multiple interceptions. The kicking game has been shaky, with Carson Hilbert missing a key field goal against Wake Forest and Nick Keller having a kick blocked.

Looking Ahead: Opportunity to Build Momentum

Louisville has an opportunity to get back on track with a favorable schedule ahead. They play at Syracuse next, a team with a 2-3 record and a low power rating. The Cardinals are 14.5-point favorites. After that, they have winnable games against teams they match up well with. The key will be cleaning up penalties, protecting the football, and getting more consistent play from the secondary. If they can do that, they have the talent to finish strong and potentially reach a bowl game. The offense is capable of carrying the team, but the defense must improve for Louisville to contend in the ACC.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Louisville Cardinals's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Louisville Cardinals is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Louisville Cardinals's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Louisville Cardinals holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +12.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Louisville Cardinals's home field advantage rating?

Louisville Cardinals's home field advantage rating is 3.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Louisville Cardinals's 2026 win total?

Louisville Cardinals's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Louisville Cardinals travel in 2026?

Louisville Cardinals travels 3,934 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 119th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Louisville Cardinals: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +12.8 (2026 records).