Louisville Cardinals is 0-1 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +12.9. Louisville Cardinals enters the season with a power rating of +12.9, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Louisville Cardinals host Villanova next in Week 2. In 2025, Louisville Cardinals went 9-4 overall, 4-9 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Louisville Cardinals Power Rating of +12.9 is 12.9 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Louisville Cardinals have logged 303 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,934 miles, ranking 119th heaviest in the FBS.
Lincoln Kienholz QB, Davin Wydner QB, Isaac Brown RB, Tre Richardson WR, Lawayne McCoy WR, Brody Foley TE, Eryx Daugherty OL, Evan Wibberley OL, Jackson Voth WR
Clev Lubin EDGE, Tyler Thompson EDGE, Demeco Kennedy DL, T.J. Capers LB, Antonio Watts LB, Stanquan Clark LB, Koen Entringer S, Tayon Holloway CB
Carson Hilbert K, Nick Keller K, Jacob Baker P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Week 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 4-1 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Week 8 | 5-1 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-1 | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 7-1 | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 3-6 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 4-9 | 6-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +11.6 in the preseason and finished +12.9 after week 2, a move of +1.4 points. High +12.9 (week 2), low +11.6 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +5.7 is regressed to +3.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| SMU | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Wake Forest | 7 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| NC State | 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Florida State | 8 | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Syracuse | 7 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Stanford | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Georgia Tech | 4 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| North Carolina | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 3-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Kentucky | 9 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Villanova.
Week 03,934 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Ole Miss | 151 mi | 303 mi |
| Week 2 | Villanova | Home | 303 mi |
| Week 3 | SMU | Home | 303 mi |
| Week 4 | Wake Forest | Home | 303 mi |
| Week 5 | NC State | 423 mi | 1,149 mi |
| Week 6 | Florida State | Home | 1,149 mi |
| Week 7 | Syracuse | 605 mi | 2,359 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Stanford | Home | 2,359 mi |
| Week 10 | Georgia Tech | 315 mi | 2,989 mi |
| Week 11 | North Carolina | 403 mi | 3,795 mi |
| Week 12 | Pittsburgh | Home | 3,795 mi |
| Week 13 | Kentucky | 69 mi | 3,934 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Lincoln Kienholz, making his first career start after three seasons at Ohio State, showed exactly why Jeff Brohm brought him to Louisville. He threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns while adding 69 rushing yards, including a 7-yard scoring run that tied the game with 1:28 left against Ole Miss. The Cardinals ultimately lost 41-38 on a last-second field goal, but Kienholz's mobility and arm talent were on full display. The challenge now is consistency: he faced a top-10 defense in his debut, and the schedule ahead offers chances to build rhythm, but the Ole Miss game proved he can keep Louisville competitive in shootouts.
Isaac Brown, who led the nation averaging 8.8 yards per carry in 2025, was held to just 36 yards on 16 carries against Ole Miss. The Rebels' defensive front dominated the line of scrimmage, and Louisville's rebuilt offensive line, featuring transfers Eryx Daugherty and Evan Wibberley, struggled to open lanes. The Cardinals' passing game compensated, but the inability to run the ball is a red flag. With a home game against Villanova next, the line has a chance to regroup, but the long-term concern remains: if Brown can't get going against Power Four opponents, Louisville's offense becomes one-dimensional.
Louisville's defense forced key turnovers early, including an interception by Stanquan Clark and a fumble recovery, but Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss torched them after halftime. Chambliss threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns, including two 62-yard scores, and added a rushing touchdown. The Cardinals' pass rush, led by All-ACC edge Clev Lubin and Tyler Thompson, had moments but couldn't consistently pressure Chambliss. The secondary, featuring Iowa transfer Koen Entringer and corner Tayon Holloway, was exposed on deep throws. This unit has playmakers, but it must tighten coverage and limit big plays to keep Louisville in games against stronger offenses.
A botched punt snap set up Ole Miss's first touchdown, and the Cardinals' inability to execute in critical moments was a recurring theme. Louisville had chances to win, tying the game late, but the defense couldn't get a stop on the final drive, allowing the game-winning field goal. The kicking game, with Carson Hilbert and Nick Keller competing for the job, wasn't tested in a high-pressure moment, but the special teams miscue was a glaring error. Jeff Brohm emphasized learning from the loss, and cleaning up these mistakes will be essential as the season progresses.
Louisville's schedule offers a reprieve after the Ole Miss loss, with a home game against FCS opponent Villanova as a 36.5-point favorite. This is a chance to build confidence, get Kienholz more reps, and establish the running game. The Cardinals avoid Miami and Virginia in ACC play, which could help their conference record, but they'll need to show improvement in all phases. The early-season test against a top-10 team revealed both the team's potential and its vulnerabilities. If the offensive line gels and the defense cuts down on explosive plays, Louisville could be a factor in the ACC race. The next few weeks will determine whether the Ole Miss game was a sign of progress or a warning of inconsistency.
Louisville Cardinals is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Louisville Cardinals holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +12.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Louisville Cardinals's home field advantage rating is 3.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Louisville Cardinals's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Louisville Cardinals travels 3,934 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 119th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Louisville Cardinals: 0-1 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +12.9 (2026 records).
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