Marshall Thundering Herd is 4-3 on the season, 2-5 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -14.5. Marshall Thundering Herd holds a power rating of -14.5, placing them in the weaker tier of the FBS and typically entering games as a significant underdog. The Marshall Thundering Herd head to Old Dominion next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Marshall Thundering Herd Power Rating of -14.5 is 14.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Marshall Thundering Herd have logged 2,172 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,064 miles, ranking 105th heaviest in the FBS.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson QB, Jo'Shon Barbie RB, TJ Lester RB, De'Andre Tamarez WR, Adrian Norton WR, Owen Sweeney WR, Christian Hamilton WR, Toby Payne TE, Robby Martin OL, Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw WR
Javae Gilmore LB, Kelvon McBride LB, Mickel Williams DL, Daytione Smith S, Josh Pierre-Louis CB, Charles McCartherens CB, Eddie Pleasant III CB, Brayden Hall CB
Jorge Diaz Nicolas K, Cooper Heimbach P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 4-4 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 4-5 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 7-5 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -6.0 in the preseason and finished -14.5 after week 8, a move of -8.5 points. High -6.0 (the preseason), low -14.5 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.4 is regressed to +1.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee | 7 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gardner-Webb | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| James Madison | 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| South Alabama | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Old Dominion | 9 | 8-1 | 5-4 |
| Georgia Southern | 4 | 2-2 | 2-1-1 |
| App State | 6 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Georgia State | 4 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| UL Monroe | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Penn State.
Week 05,064 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Penn State | 294 mi | 588 mi |
| Week 2 | Middle Tennessee | Home | 588 mi |
| Week 3 | Missouri State | 600 mi | 1,787 mi |
| Week 4 | Gardner-Webb | Home | 1,787 mi |
| Week 5 | James Madison | 193 mi | 2,172 mi |
| Week 6 | Coastal Carolina | Home | 2,172 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | South Alabama | Home | 2,172 mi |
| Week 9 | Old Dominion | 352 mi | 2,876 mi |
| Week 10 | Georgia Southern | 416 mi | 3,708 mi |
| Week 11 | App State | Home | 3,708 mi |
| Week 12 | Georgia State | Home | 3,708 mi |
| Week 13 | UL Monroe | 678 mi | 5,064 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Marshall opened the season with a 45-0 loss at Penn State, managing only 147 total yards and crossing midfield three times. The offense, led by quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, couldn't sustain drives, and the defense allowed 271 passing yards and four touchdowns. Head coach Tony Gibson called the performance 'embarrassing all the way around.' The Herd followed with a narrow 28-26 home win over Middle Tennessee, needing a fourth-quarter fumble recovery in the end zone and a late TJ Lester touchdown to survive. They failed to cover as a double-digit favorite. A 30-24 road win at Missouri State and a 36-35 home escape against Gardner-Webb (FCS) followed, but the team failed to cover large spreads in both. The pattern of playing down to inferior opponents has been consistent.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is the centerpiece of Marshall's offense, a dual-threat quarterback who led the team in rushing last season. The offense relies heavily on his legs, but his passing volume has been low and inconsistent. He threw for 102 yards on 25 attempts against Penn State, then 92 yards on 8 attempts against Middle Tennessee, with a 69-yard touchdown to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw accounting for most of the production. He exploded for a career-high 386 yards and three touchdowns against Gardner-Webb, showing what the offense can do when it opens up. Running backs Jo'Shon Barbie and TJ Lester share carries, and receivers De'Andre Tamarez and Adrian Norton are the top targets, but the passing game has yet to consistently create separation against quality coverage. The offensive line has been uneven, struggling to establish the run against stronger fronts.
Marshall's defense was among the worst in the Sun Belt last season and lost three of its top four sack leaders and top three tacklers. New coordinator Brad Lambert has integrated transfers like Kelvon McBride and Mickel Williams, but the results have been mixed. The Herd have allowed 24 or more points in every game, including 45 to Penn State, 26 to Middle Tennessee, 24 to Missouri State, 35 to Gardner-Webb, 45 to James Madison, and 27 to Coastal Carolina. The run defense has been gashed repeatedly, and the secondary has allowed explosive plays. Javae Gilmore is the only returning starting linebacker, and the unit has yet to hold an FBS opponent under 24 points. The defense's inability to get off the field has put pressure on the offense and contributed to the team's 1-5 ATS record.
Special teams have been a major weakness all season. The Herd lost All-MAC kicker Lorcan Quinn to Alabama and replaced him with transfer Jorge Diaz Nicolas, who had never attempted a college kick. True freshman punter Cooper Heimbach has been average at best. Tony Gibson called the unit 'embarrassing all the way around' after the Penn State loss. While Diaz Nicolas did hit a game-winning 32-yard field goal against Gardner-Webb, the kicking game has generally not flipped field position or provided points. In close games, this weakness has narrowed Marshall's margin for error and contributed to several narrow escapes against inferior opponents.
At 3-3 overall and 0-2 in Sun Belt play, Marshall has shown flashes but has been plagued by inconsistency. The offense can move the ball when Del Rio-Wilson is efficient, but the defense struggles to get stops, and special teams remain a liability. The team has a bye before hosting South Alabama on October 20, a crucial conference matchup. With a 46% win probability per the prediction market, the Herd will need to clean up turnovers (six against Coastal Carolina) and find a way to stop opposing offenses to reach a bowl game. The remaining schedule offers opportunities, but the margin for error is slim. The biggest question is whether the defense can improve enough to support a potent but inconsistent offense.
Marshall Thundering Herd is 2-5 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 29% of games.
Marshall Thundering Herd holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -14.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Marshall Thundering Herd's home field advantage rating is 1.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Marshall Thundering Herd's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +115 over and -150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Marshall Thundering Herd travels 5,064 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 105th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Marshall Thundering Herd: 4-3 overall, 2-5 ATS, power rating -14.5 (2026 records).
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