Navy Midshipmen is 2-4 on the season, 2-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -4.8. Navy Midshipmen is covering at just 37% since the start of last season (7-12), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Navy Midshipmen host North Texas next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Navy Midshipmen Power Rating of -4.8 is 4.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Navy Midshipmen have logged 9,030 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,779 miles, ranking 24th heaviest in the FBS.
Braxton Woodson QB, Vic Listorti RB, Charles Robinson SB, Luke Hutchison WR, Hoke Smith II OL, Isaiah Bryant SB
MarcAnthony Parker LB, Coleman Cauley LB, Giuseppe Sessi S, Phillip Hamilton S, Nick Bell CB, Irabonoise Oniha CB
Jacob Carlson P, Justin Welch K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 5-0 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 6-0 | 2-4 | 5-1 |
| Week 9 | 7-0 | 2-5 | 6-1 |
| Week 10 | 7-1 | 2-6 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 2-7 | 7-2 |
| Week 12 | 8-2 | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Week 14 | 9-2 | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Week 16 | 10-2 | 4-8 | 8-4 |
| Postseason | 11-2 | 5-8 | 8-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +3.2 in the preseason and finished -4.8 after week 8, a move of -8.0 points. High +3.2 (the preseason), low -6.1 (week 6).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.7 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| UAB | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Air Force | 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Tulsa | 8 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| North Texas | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Notre Dame | 9 | 1-8 | 2-6-1 |
| Temple | 9 | 5-4 | 3-6 |
| Memphis | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Charlotte | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Army | 10 | 4-6 | 3-6-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Towson, UTSA.
Week 010,779 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Towson | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Florida Atlantic | 894 mi | 1,787 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | UAB | 687 mi | 3,161 mi |
| Week 5 | Air Force | 1,519 mi | 6,199 mi |
| Week 6 | Tulsa | Home | 6,199 mi |
| Week 7 | UTSA | 1,415 mi | 9,030 mi |
| Week 8 | North Texas | Home | 9,030 mi |
| Week 9 | Notre Dame | 349 mi | 9,729 mi |
| Week 10 | Temple | Home | 9,729 mi |
| Week 11 | - | Bye | |
| Week 12 | Memphis | Home | 9,729 mi |
| Week 13 | Charlotte | 345 mi | 10,418 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | Army | 181 mi | 10,779 mi |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Navy's rushing attack is still the engine of the team, even as the passing game has struggled. The Midshipmen opened the season with 506 rushing yards against Towson, with 14 different players carrying the ball, and quarterback Braxton Woodson ran for 200 yards and three scores. When Jackson Gutierrez took over at quarterback, the ground game didn't skip a beat: he ran for 232 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Tulsa, and added 139 rushing yards and two scores at UTSA. For the season, Navy has consistently moved the ball on the ground, and that remains the most reliable path to victory.
The aerial attack has been nearly nonexistent for most of the season. Braxton Woodson completed just 3 of 11 passes for 47 yards with an interception in the Florida Atlantic loss, and the Midshipmen completed only six passes as a team in that game. Even with Jackson Gutierrez at the helm, Navy has remained run-heavy: he threw for 95 yards on 5 of 7 passing against Tulsa and 104 yards on 4 of 13 at UAB. The lack of a consistent passing threat has allowed defenses to load the box and challenge the Midshipmen to beat them through the air, which they have yet to do consistently.
Navy's secondary and pass rush have been torched repeatedly. Florida Atlantic's Caden Veltkamp threw for 386 yards and five touchdowns on 27 of 32 passing, with Easton Messer going for 179 yards and two scores. Towson's Andrew Indorf added 208 yards and two long touchdowns on just 18 attempts. UTSA's Owen McCown threw for 359 yards and three scores, including the game-winning 41-yard strike with 2:24 left. The loss of All-America nose guard Landon Robinson has left the pass rush toothless without blitzing, and opposing quarterbacks have had ample time to pick apart the secondary. This is the single biggest reason Navy has struggled to close out games.
Navy has been competitive in nearly every game but has faltered in crunch time. Against UAB, a fourth-quarter fumble led to the go-ahead touchdown for the Blazers. Against Air Force, the final four possessions ended with a fumble and three drives totaling 19 yards, and Navy converted just 1 of 11 third downs. At UTSA, the Midshipmen took a 34-31 lead with 4:50 left but allowed a six-play, 75-yard touchdown drive and then turned the ball over on downs. The team has also battled a brutal road stretch (over 4,500 cumulative travel miles) and has yet to cover a spread on the road. Cleaning up these late-game execution issues is critical for turning close losses into wins.
Despite a 2-4 record, Navy has shown flashes of the developmental program that has become its hallmark under head coach Brian Newberry. The emergence of Jackson Gutierrez as a dual-threat quarterback (232 rushing yards vs Tulsa, 139 at UTSA) and the continued production from slotback Charles Robinson and running back Vic Listorti provide optimism. The return home for the North Texas game offers a chance to regroup and build momentum. With the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy still on the line against Army in December, the Midshipmen have plenty to play for. The key will be whether the defense can generate any pressure without blitzing and whether the passing game can provide just enough balance to keep defenses honest. If those two areas improve, Navy can finish the season strong.
Navy Midshipmen is 2-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
Navy Midshipmen holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -4.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Navy Midshipmen's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Navy Midshipmen's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Navy Midshipmen travels 10,779 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 24th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Navy Midshipmen: 2-4 overall, 2-4 ATS, power rating -4.8 (2026 records).
.png)
