Penn State Nittany Lions

Matt Campbell's first season in State College has been built around his Iowa State roots, with 24 of the team's 40 transfers coming from Ames. Quarterback Rocco Becht, the most experienced FBS starter in the country with 39 career starts, leads an offense that also features tight end Benjamin Brahmer and running back Carson Hansen. The early returns were promising: Becht threw four touchdowns in a 45-0 opening rout of Marshall and three more in a 27-9 win at Temple. But the offense has since sputtered, failing to top 23 points in any of the last three games.

D'Anton Lynn's rebuilt unit, anchored by four transfer tackles weighing at least 319 pounds and a veteran linebacker trio of Tony Rojas, Caleb Bacon and Kooper Ebel, opened the season with dominant performances. Penn State held Marshall to 147 yards and a shutout, limited Temple to nine points, and surrendered just 13 to Buffalo. But Wisconsin put up 24 in a 20-24 home loss, Northwestern gashed the Nittany Lions for 413 rushing yards in a 34-13 defeat, and USC outgained them 430-357 in a 31-23 loss. The run defense that was supposed to funnel plays to the linebackers has been repeatedly gashed by competent offenses.

The offense has left points on the board all season. Against Temple, Penn State missed a 33-yard field goal, turned the ball over on downs at the 5, and settled for short kicks on multiple red-zone trips. The run game with Hansen and James Peoples has never established itself, and the rushing scores have often come from backups Quinton Martin Jr. and Cam Wallace. Against USC, the Nittany Lions managed just 68 yards on 31 carries (2.2 yards per attempt). That one-dimensionality has made the offense vulnerable to slow starts and kept inferior opponents within reach.

After a 3-0 start, Penn State has dropped three consecutive games: a 24-20 home loss to Wisconsin in which they blew a 17-point lead, a 34-13 blowout at Northwestern, and a 31-23 White Out loss to USC in front of a record 114,419 fans. The team is now 3-3 overall and 0-3 in Big Ten play, with a power rating that has fallen from 20.65 after Week 2 to 11.85. The ATS record sits at 2-4, and the over/under is 2-4, reflecting an offense that has consistently underperformed expectations.

The schedule does not get easier, with a trip to Michigan next and a remaining slate full of Big Ten tests. The return of wideout Koby Howard, who was week-to-week with an unspecified injury and missed the Wisconsin game, would give Becht a reliable downfield target. The offensive line, which entered the season with four new starters, must start opening lanes for the run game to take pressure off Becht. Defensively, Lynn needs to solve the run fits that Northwestern and USC exploited. Campbell has shown he can build a program, but Year 1 is now about salvaging a bowl bid and establishing a foundation for 2027.