Penn State Nittany Lions is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +20.6. Penn State Nittany Lions enters the season with a power rating of +20.6, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Penn State Nittany Lions head to Temple next in Week 2. In 2025, Penn State Nittany Lions went 7-6 overall, 5-8 against the spread, and 8-5 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Penn State Nittany Lions Power Rating of +20.6 is 20.6 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Penn State Nittany Lions have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,707 miles, ranking 74th heaviest in the FBS.
Rocco Becht QB, Benjamin Brahmer TE, Carson Hansen RB, James Peoples RB
Siale Taupaki DT, Caleb Bacon LB, Kooper Ebel LB, Tony Rojas LB, Zion Tracy CB, Marcus Neal Jr. S
Ryan Barker K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 0-6 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 1-6 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 3-5 | 1-7 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 6-6 | 4-8 | 8-4 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 5-8 | 8-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +19.5 in the preseason and finished +20.6 after week 2, a move of +1.2 points. High +20.6 (week 2), low +19.5 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temple | 1 | 1-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Northwestern | 4 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| USC | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Michigan | 8 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Purdue | 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Washington | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Minnesota | 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Rutgers | 9 | 9-0 | 5-4 |
| Maryland | 9 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Marshall.
Week 06,707 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Marshall | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Temple | 155 mi | 310 mi |
| Week 3 | Buffalo | Home | 310 mi |
| Week 4 | Wisconsin | Home | 310 mi |
| Week 5 | Northwestern | 518 mi | 1,346 mi |
| Week 6 | USC | Home | 1,346 mi |
| Week 7 | Michigan | 321 mi | 1,989 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Purdue | Home | 1,989 mi |
| Week 10 | Washington | 2,224 mi | 6,438 mi |
| Week 11 | Minnesota | Home | 6,438 mi |
| Week 12 | Rutgers | Home | 6,438 mi |
| Week 13 | Maryland | 135 mi | 6,707 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Matt Campbell's first game as head coach could not have gone better. Penn State opened with a 45-0 rout of Marshall, covering a 23-point spread and showing immediate chemistry despite a roster overhaul. Rocco Becht, the most experienced starting quarterback in FBS with 39 career starts, threw for 271 yards and four touchdowns in his Beaver Stadium debut, securing his 27th career win as a starter. The defense, coordinated by D'Anton Lynn, held Marshall to just 147 total yards and kept the Herd out of the end zone. The Nittany Lions committed only four penalties and no turnovers, a clean performance that suggests the transition from the previous staff may be smoother than expected.
The decision to bring a large contingent of former Cyclones to Happy Valley paid off immediately. Becht spread the ball to familiar faces: Koby Howard, a holdover from the previous staff who had been used sparingly, exploded for six catches and 161 yards with a touchdown. Benjamin Brahmer, the 6-foot-7 tight end who followed Becht from Ames, caught a touchdown, as did Brett Eskildsen and Zay Robinson. The offense looked sharp even with a rebuilt offensive line that featured four new starters, and the running back duo of Carson Hansen and James Peoples added rushing touchdowns. Becht showed no ill effects from offseason shoulder surgery, moving comfortably in the pocket and delivering strikes downfield.
D'Anton Lynn, the new defensive coordinator and a former Penn State cornerback, has been tasked with fixing a unit that underperformed last season. His approach, adding massive interior tackles to funnel plays to the linebackers, worked in the opener. Marshall managed just 102 passing yards and 45 rushing yards, crossing midfield only three times. The linebacker trio of Caleb Bacon, Kooper Ebel, and Tony Rojas, the team's top returning defender who is coming back from a torn ACL, should benefit from the space created by the big bodies up front. The secondary, led by Zion Tracy and safety Marcus Neal Jr., also looked solid, though Marshall's offense was not a demanding test.
Kicker Ryan Barker, who led the FBS in field-goal percentage last season at 94.7 and did not miss from inside 50 yards, converted a 38-yard field goal on Penn State's opening drive. Special teams coordinator Justin Lustig is back for his second season, and the unit showed no signs of regression. In a season where the offense and defense are still gelling, having a dependable kicking game and a proven coordinator is a valuable safety net.
The schedule gets tougher after a trip to Temple in Week 2. Penn State's offensive line, with four new starters, will face stiffer competition in Big Ten play, and the defense's performance against Marshall, while dominant, came against a Sun Belt opponent. The team's reliance on Iowa State transfers, 24 of 40 total transfers, creates continuity but also raises questions about depth if injuries hit. The Nittany Lions are projected to win 94% of their games against Temple, but the real test will come when they face conference opponents with more talent. A College Football Playoff bid is possible but would be overachieving in Year 1 under Campbell, who is focused on building for the long term. Keep an eye on how the offensive line develops and whether the defense can maintain its dominance against better competition.
Penn State Nittany Lions is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Penn State Nittany Lions holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +20.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Penn State Nittany Lions's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Penn State Nittany Lions's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at +135 over and -170 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Penn State Nittany Lions travels 6,707 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 74th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Penn State Nittany Lions: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +20.6 (2026 records).