Western Michigan Broncos is 5-3 on the season, 3-5 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -1.9. Western Michigan Broncos is covering the spread at 62% since the start of last season (13-8-1), well above the FBS average. The Western Michigan Broncos host Bowling Green next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Western Michigan Broncos Power Rating of -1.9 is 1.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Western Michigan Broncos have logged 3,361 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,816 miles, ranking 124th heaviest in the FBS.
Western Michigan Broncos Coaching Staff and Key Players
Joshua Franklin CB, John Peters CB, Micah Davis S, Dakari Frazier DL, Ahmed Tounkara DL, Austin Alexander DL, Domanick Moon LB, Dillon Moore LB, Brenden Anes LB, Justyce Betts LB
Special teams
Palmer Domschke K, Ryan Millmore P
2025 Season in Review
Record10-4ATS10-3-1O/U6-8
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
After
Record
ATS
O/U
Week 1
0-1
1-0
0-1
Week 2
0-2
2-0
1-1
Week 3
0-3
2-1
1-2
Week 4
1-3
3-1
1-3
Week 5
2-3
4-1
2-3
Week 6
3-3
5-1
2-4
Week 7
4-3
6-1
2-5
Week 9
4-4
6-2
3-5
Week 10
5-4
6-3
4-5
Week 12
6-4
7-3
4-6
Week 13
7-4
8-3
5-6
Week 14
8-4
8-3-1
6-6
Week 15
9-4
9-3-1
6-7
Postseason
10-4
10-3-1
6-8
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics'
own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season
to the next - see
most underrated and
overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
2026 Power Rating Trajectory
Opened -4.0 in the preseason and finished -1.9 after week 8, a move of +2.2 points. High -1.0 (week 3), low -5.0 (week 6).
PreW8
Western Michigan Broncos SP+ Profile
Offence+19.0112 of 138higher is better
Defence+25.868 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4107 of 138higher is better
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the
systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip
Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower
figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for
that.
How Confident Is This Rating?
Sources blended5
Source spread±3.9 pts
HFA measured+2.5 pts
HFA applied+2.5 pts
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
Record Against 2026 Opponents
Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025.
Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
Western Michigan has leaned on its run-first approach all season, and it has paid off with a 4-0 start in conference play. Jalen Buckley has been the workhorse, highlighted by a 150-yard, two-touchdown performance in the 21-14 win at Central Michigan. Quarterback Broc Lowry remains a dual-threat, as shown by his 54 rushing yards and a touchdown in the 20-17 victory at Buffalo. The Broncos have controlled games by staying on schedule on early downs and shortening contests, a formula that has them atop the MAC.
Broc Lowry's passing growth is the swing factor
Lowry, the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year, has shown strides as a passer in his second season as the starter. He threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-7 rout of Kent State, and added 212 yards and a score in the win at Buffalo. However, consistency remains an issue: he was limited to 110 yards and an interception in the 32-7 loss to Boise State, and attempted just eight passes against Central Michigan. If Lowry can consistently hit chunk throws, the offense becomes far harder to defend and raises the team's ceiling.
Pass defense remains the primary vulnerability
The Broncos have struggled to defend the pass, allowing 273 yards through the air to FCS Monmouth and 223 yards to Kent State. The secondary has relied on turnovers rather than tight coverage, and the loss of sack leader Nadame Tucker has reduced pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While the run defense has been stout, the back seven can be exploited by teams with capable passing games. This flaw was exposed in the 32-7 home loss to Boise State and could be the difference in tight conference matchups down the stretch.
Special teams and clutch defense provide an edge
Kicker Dieter Kelly has been reliable in key moments, including a 38-yard go-ahead field goal with 1:19 left at Buffalo and a 39-yarder that briefly gave WMU a fourth-quarter lead at Michigan. The defense has also delivered in the clutch, stopping Buffalo on a fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line to preserve a 20-17 win. Punter Ryan Millmore and returner Kordell Gouldsby add further special-teams value. These phases have helped Western Michigan win close games and could be decisive in the race for the MAC title.
Closing stretch will test mettle
At 5-2 overall and 4-0 in the MAC, Western Michigan controls its destiny in the conference race. The schedule ahead includes a trip to Toledo, a team with a similar 5-2 record, and a home finale against Miami (Ohio) that could have MAC championship implications. The Broncos have already shown resilience, bouncing back from a heartbreaking 13-12 loss at Michigan and a 32-7 home defeat to Boise State. How they handle the pressure of being the hunted in the MAC will determine whether they repeat as conference champions.
What is Western Michigan Broncos's against-the-spread record in 2026?
Western Michigan Broncos is 3-5 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 38% of games.
What is Western Michigan Broncos's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?
Western Michigan Broncos holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -1.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
What is Western Michigan Broncos's home field advantage rating?
Western Michigan Broncos's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
What is Western Michigan Broncos's 2026 win total?
Western Michigan Broncos's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +115 over and -150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
How many miles does Western Michigan Broncos travel in 2026?
Western Michigan Broncos travels 3,816 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 124th heaviest in the FBS.
How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Western Michigan Broncos: 5-3 overall, 3-5 ATS, power rating -1.9 (2026 records).
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