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Week 10 •
Hornet Stadium

Toledo @ Sacramento State

4-1 MAC Power rating: 0.4
1-4 MAC Power rating: -27.3

By · Last updated

Is there value in the Toledo vs Sacramento State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TOL -24.6
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors TOLfavors SAC ▸
‹ 27.7 TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SAC
TOL
SAC
no impact
no impact
1 TOL1 SAC2 TOL2 SACModel: TOL -24.6

Toledo (power rating: 0.4) carries a 27.7-point advantage over Sacramento State (-27.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Sacramento State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at Hornet Stadium. Beyond home field, the model charges Toledo's westward trip, with a slighter reading for Toledo's extra rest. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Toledo vs Sacramento State at Hornet Stadium?

The latest reading for Hornet Stadium shows Clear, 58°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Toledo and Sacramento State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (0.4) over Sacramento State (-27.3) by 27.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sacramento State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sacramento State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Toledo and Sacramento State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Blue Chip makes this Toledo -24.6. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 13, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

58°F

Rain4%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind6 mph SSW
Gusts10 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Toledo at Sacramento State: aerial view of Hornet Stadium, wind from the SSW at 6 mph, gusting to 9.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
09:00 PM PST
Venue
Hornet Stadium
Capacity
21,195
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

ToledoAway Sacramento StateHome
This week1,998 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total2,528 miles12,122 miles
Body clock00:0021:00
Rest11 days4 days

Toledo travels 1,998 miles to this game, a cross-country trip. That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

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