Week 13 • November 27, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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MAC
Power Rank: 2.0
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MAC
Power Rank: -5.0

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Toledo (power rating: 2.0) carries a 7.0-point edge over Ohio (-5.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Ohio's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7) narrows that gap at Peden Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 12:00 AM EST
Stadium: Peden Stadium
Capacity: 25,210
Elevation: 640 ft
HFA Rating: 2.7
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Toledo -7.0

Line Value Calculator

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Toledo
Ohio
Home field — Peden Stadium
Weather: Mist
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Toledo vs Ohio at Peden Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Peden Stadium shows Mist — 73.0°F, Feels Like 63.7°F with winds of 3.8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Mist

Mist

73.0°F

Feels Like: 63.7°F
Wind: 3.8 mph WNW
Gusts: 8.0 mph
Precipitation: 0.17"
Humidity: 96%
Rain Chance: 21%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Toledo (Away)

This Week: 179.8 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 4706.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 9

Ohio (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 7934.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 10

What are the key factors for Toledo vs Ohio?

Toledo: Key Factors

New-look roster faces first test against Power 4 opponent

Toledo enters the season with a largely rebuilt roster, including 14 transfers from Mercer and several other FBS/FCS additions. The Rockets' cohesion and ability to compete against a Michigan State team with a significant talent advantage will be critical, especially early in the game.

Quarterback John Alan Richter's first start in a new system

Richter has limited starting experience (three starts in 2024) and is now operating under a new coaching staff. His performance against a Power 4 defense will be a key indicator of Toledo's offensive potential, especially given the lack of a proven backup.

Defensive line led by FCS Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Zock

Zock (20 TFL, 11.5 sacks in 2025) is the centerpiece of the defense. His ability to disrupt Michigan State's offensive line and generate pressure will be vital for Toledo to stay competitive, particularly against a Spartans team that may rely on a new quarterback.

Travel and weather factors could impact performance

Toledo travels only 86 miles to East Lansing, minimizing fatigue, but the forecast calls for light rain, 62°F, and 15 mph wind. These conditions may favor a ground-oriented attack, where Toledo's running back duo of CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak could be key.

Special teams advantage with experienced kicker and returner

Kicker Reice Griffith (14/17 FG at Mercer, half from 40+) and punt returner Bryson Hammer (led MAC in punt return yardage two straight years) provide Toledo with reliable special teams. In a potentially low-scoring game, field position and kicking could be decisive.

Ohio: Key Factors

Offensive line overhaul vs. Nebraska's defensive front

Ohio's offensive line is entirely rebuilt through the transfer portal, which is a major concern against a Nebraska defense that typically features size and athleticism up front. The Bobcats' ability to establish the run and protect new quarterback Matt Vezza will be tested early, especially with the projected windy conditions (15 mph) that could limit the passing game.

Quarterback transition and weather challenges

Matt Vezza, an FCS transfer from New Hampshire, will make his FBS debut on the road in a hostile environment. With patchy rain and 15 mph winds forecasted, the passing game could be disrupted, placing additional pressure on Vezza to manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers against a Nebraska secondary that will look to capitalize on his inexperience.

Defensive disruption as a key to staying competitive

Ohio's defense, led by linebackers Jack Fries and Michael Molnar, is expected to be the strength of the team under new coordinator Kurt Mattix's aggressive scheme. Generating pressure and creating negative plays will be crucial to keep the game close, especially if the offense struggles. The unit's ability to adapt quickly to the new system will be tested against Nebraska's experienced offensive line.

Travel and venue factors working against Ohio

Ohio travels 780 miles to Lincoln for the season opener, facing a Nebraska team with a significant home-field advantage (HFA 2.3). The long trip and loud environment at Memorial Stadium could lead to early communication issues and penalties, particularly for a team with many new starters on offense.

Special teams could provide a spark or a liability

Punter Magnus Haines and kicker Will Hryszko are proven assets, but the return game with Duncan Brune and Max Rodarte offers big-play potential. In a game where points may be at a premium, field position and a key return could swing momentum. However, the windy conditions may affect Hryszko's field goal accuracy, making fourth-down decisions critical.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Toledo travels 180 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do Toledo and Ohio compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Toledo (2.0) over Ohio (-5.0) by 7.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ohio faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ohio brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Toledo as the stronger team by 7.0 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.