Sam Houston Bearkats is 1-6 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -18.1. Sam Houston Bearkats is covering at just 32% since the start of last season (6-13), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Sam Houston Bearkats head to Missouri State next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Sam Houston Bearkats Power Rating of -18.1 is 18.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Sam Houston Bearkats have logged 4,071 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,193 miles, ranking 55th heaviest in the FBS.
Landyn Locke QB, Chris Reed WR, Landan Brown RB, Alton McCaskill RB
Dylan Frazier DL, Josh Alexander-Felton EDGE, Stacy Bey LB, Jace Arnold LB
Sam Carpenter K, Tate Ryan K, Cal Joseph P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Week 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Week 6 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 0-6 | 1-5 | 5-1 |
| Week 8 | 0-7 | 1-6 | 6-1 |
| Week 10 | 0-8 | 1-7 | 7-1 |
| Week 11 | 1-8 | 2-7 | 7-2 |
| Week 12 | 2-8 | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 2-9 | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 2-10 | 3-9 | 8-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -24.1 in the preseason and finished -18.1 after week 8, a move of +6.0 points. High -15.6 (week 5), low -24.1 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Western Kentucky | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jacksonville State | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Kennesaw State | 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Middle Tennessee | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Florida International | 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Troy, Tulsa, Nicholls, Texas Tech, Missouri State.
Week 08,193 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Troy | 572 mi | 1,145 mi |
| Week 2 | Tulsa | Home | 1,145 mi |
| Week 3 | Nicholls | Home | 1,145 mi |
| Week 4 | Texas Tech | 421 mi | 1,986 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Liberty | 1,043 mi | 4,071 mi |
| Week 7 | Western Kentucky | Home | 4,071 mi |
| Week 8 | New Mexico State | Home | 4,071 mi |
| Week 9 | Missouri State | 465 mi | 5,002 mi |
| Week 10 | Jacksonville State | 611 mi | 6,223 mi |
| Week 11 | Kennesaw State | Home | 6,223 mi |
| Week 12 | Middle Tennessee | Home | 6,223 mi |
| Week 13 | Florida International | 985 mi | 8,193 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Landyn Locke has been the engine of the Sam Houston offense, throwing for at least 300 yards in each of the first three games (335 at Troy, 316 vs Tulsa, 322 vs Nicholls) and entering the Texas Tech matchup as one of only three FBS quarterbacks with three straight 300-yard games. He has spread the ball to Chris Reed, Jerrian Parker Jr., Tim Burns Jr., Grady O'Neill and others, and the Bearkats have moved the ball through the air even with a rebuilt offensive line. The passing game is the clear strength of the team and the reason Sam Houston has been competitive in most games.
The Bearkats have been gashed for long touchdowns on the ground in multiple games: Tulsa's Trequan Jones ran for 125 yards on nine carries with an 81-yard score, Tristan Lawyer added a 56-yard touchdown on his only carry, and Liberty piled up 297 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. The front seven, rebuilt around transfers Josh Alexander-Felton, Stacy Bey and Jace Arnold, has not shown it can stop a competent rushing attack without giving up chunk plays. Until the run fits improve, opposing offenses will continue to control games and keep Locke off the field.
Sam Houston lost every starter on the offensive line to graduation or the transfer portal, and the rebuilt unit has struggled against stronger fronts, notably at Texas Tech and Liberty. The kicking competition between Sam Carpenter and Tate Ryan has not produced a reliable option, though Carpenter made a 36-yard field goal at Liberty and a 42-yarder against Western Kentucky. Punter Cal Joseph averaged only 38.1 yards per punt at Wake Forest. In close games, these weaknesses in protection and special teams can swing field position and scoring margins.
After playing every game away from campus in 2025, Sam Houston returned to refurbished Elliott T. Bowers Stadium and has shown fight at home, leading Tulsa 14-7 before fading and then demolishing Nicholls 59-0 for the program's highest-scoring game since joining the FBS. The Bearkats have covered in three of six games, including as double-digit underdogs at Troy and against Tulsa, and their 1-5 record includes several narrow losses. The home venue and the team's resilience suggest they can be competitive in Conference USA play, but they must convert those efforts into wins.
The rest of the season hinges on whether the defense can limit explosive runs and get off the field, and whether the offense can develop a reliable running game to complement Locke and the passing attack. Landan Brown and Alton McCaskill combined for 858 rushing yards last season but have not been a consistent factor so far. If the offensive line matures and the run defense improves, Sam Houston can challenge the middle of the conference. If not, the Bearkats will remain in shootouts and close losses. The upcoming home game against New Mexico State, a near coin-flip according to the market, is a key opportunity to establish momentum.
Sam Houston Bearkats is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Sam Houston Bearkats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -18.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Sam Houston Bearkats's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Sam Houston Bearkats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Sam Houston Bearkats travels 8,193 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 55th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Sam Houston Bearkats: 1-6 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -18.1 (2026 records).
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