Sam Houston Bearkats is 0-1 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -23.8. Sam Houston Bearkats enters the season with a power rating of -23.8, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Sam Houston Bearkats host Tulsa next in Week 2. In 2025, Sam Houston Bearkats went 2-10 overall, 3-9 against the spread, and 8-4 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Sam Houston Bearkats Power Rating of -23.8 is 23.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Sam Houston Bearkats have logged 1,145 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,193 miles, ranking 55th heaviest in the FBS.
Landyn Locke QB, Chris Reed WR, Landan Brown RB, Alton McCaskill RB
Dylan Frazier DL, Josh Alexander-Felton EDGE, Stacy Bey LB, Jace Arnold LB
Sam Carpenter K, Tate Ryan K, Cal Joseph P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Week 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Week 6 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 0-6 | 1-5 | 5-1 |
| Week 8 | 0-7 | 1-6 | 6-1 |
| Week 10 | 0-8 | 1-7 | 7-1 |
| Week 11 | 1-8 | 2-7 | 7-2 |
| Week 12 | 2-8 | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 2-9 | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 2-10 | 3-9 | 8-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -23.1 in the preseason and finished -18.0 after the postseason, a move of +5.1 points. High -17.7 (week 13), low -24.1 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Western Kentucky | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jacksonville State | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Kennesaw State | 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Middle Tennessee | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Florida International | 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Troy, Tulsa, Nicholls, Texas Tech, Missouri State.
Week 08,193 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Troy | 572 mi | 1,145 mi |
| Week 2 | Tulsa | Home | 1,145 mi |
| Week 3 | Nicholls | Home | 1,145 mi |
| Week 4 | Texas Tech | 421 mi | 1,986 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Liberty | 1,043 mi | 4,071 mi |
| Week 7 | Western Kentucky | Home | 4,071 mi |
| Week 8 | New Mexico State | Home | 4,071 mi |
| Week 9 | Missouri State | 465 mi | 5,002 mi |
| Week 10 | Jacksonville State | 611 mi | 6,223 mi |
| Week 11 | Kennesaw State | Home | 6,223 mi |
| Week 12 | Middle Tennessee | Home | 6,223 mi |
| Week 13 | Florida International | 985 mi | 8,193 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
After a 2-10 debut in 2025, head coach Phil Longo enters his second season with the Bearkats facing a make-or-break campaign. The team returns to a refurbished Elliott T. Bowers Stadium after playing all of last season away from campus, which removes a major excuse for another poor showing. With a full offseason to implement his system and a settled quarterback situation, Longo needs to show clear progress or his tenure could be short-lived.
The Bearkats ranked last in Conference USA in total defense in 2025, surrendering 483.5 yards and 37.8 points per game. Defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay now has his first full offseason to recruit and hire his own staff, which should help. Defensive tackle Dylan Frazier is a solid building block after posting 41 tackles, four tackles for loss, and two sacks. The defense also adds Power 4 transfers Josh Alexander-Felton from NC State, Stacy Bey from Arizona, and Jace Arnold from Wisconsin, who are expected to step into starting roles after limited playing time at their previous schools.
The placekicking job is up for grabs between transfer Sam Carpenter, who went 1-of-3 on field goals at Pitt last season, and Tate Ryan, who redshirted at Sam Houston in 2025. Punting duties will be handled by Cal Joseph, a transfer from Wake Forest who averaged 38.1 yards per punt last year. These specialists will be crucial in close games, especially early in the season when the offense and defense are still finding their footing.
Sam Houston opens the 2026 season with a road trip to Troy, a game where they are heavy underdogs (16.5-point spread) and have just a 12% win probability according to prediction markets. This is a tough start for a team trying to build confidence, but it also provides an opportunity to measure progress against a solid opponent. The Bearkats will need to show improvement in all three phases to avoid another long season, and the early road games will be a key indicator of whether they can compete in CUSA.
Sam Houston Bearkats is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Sam Houston Bearkats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -23.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Sam Houston Bearkats's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Sam Houston Bearkats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Sam Houston Bearkats travels 8,193 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 55th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Sam Houston Bearkats: 0-1 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -23.8 (2026 records).
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