Miami Hurricanes

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Miami Hurricanes is 7-0 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +25.0. Miami Hurricanes is covering the spread at 70% since the start of last season (16-7), well above the FBS average. The Miami Hurricanes head to North Carolina next in Week 9.

Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Power Rating (most current): +25.0
HFA Rating:1.6 pts
2026 Win Total:10.5
2026 Record: 7-0
2026 ATS: 5-2
2026 O/U: 6-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Miami Hurricanes Power Rating of +25.0 is 25.0 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Miami Hurricanes have logged 7,782 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 11,435 miles, ranking 21st heaviest in the FBS.

Miami Hurricanes Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachMario Cristobal
Tenure4 seasons
Record at school35-19
Career record97-79 (14+ seasons)
Offensive coordinatorShannon Dawson
Defensive coordinatorCorey Hetherman

Offense

Darian Mensah QB, Cooper Barkate WR, Malachi Toney WR, Mark Fletcher Jr. RB, Ryan Rodriguez OL, Jackson Cantwell OL, Samson Okunlola OL, Matthew McCoy OL

Defense

Damon Wilson II EDGE, Marquise Lightfoot EDGE, Armondo Blount DL, Ahmad Moten Sr. DL, Justin Scott DL, Romanas Frederique Jr. CB, Xavier Lucas CB, Zechariah Poyser S, Bryce Fitzgerald S, Omar Thornton S, Mohamed Toure LB, Chase Smith LB, Kamal Bonner LB

Special teams

Jack Olsen K, Jake Weinberg K, Dylan Joyce P

2025 Season in Review

Record13-3 ATS11-5 O/U6-10
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-01-10-2
Week 33-02-11-2
Week 44-03-11-3
Week 65-04-11-4
Week 85-14-21-5
Week 96-15-22-5
Week 106-25-32-6
Week 117-25-43-6
Week 128-26-43-7
Week 139-26-54-7
Week 1410-27-54-8
Postseason13-311-56-10

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +21.6 in the preseason and finished +25.0 after week 8, a move of +3.4 points. High +26.5 (week 6), low +21.6 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +21.6 to +25.0.

PreW8

Miami Hurricanes SP+ Profile

Offence+34.412 of 138higher is better
Defence+13.77 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.340 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±1.3 pts
HFA measured-0.7 pts
HFA applied+1.6 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -0.7 is regressed to +1.6 before it is applied, a difference of 2.3 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Stanford11-01-0
Florida A&M22-02-0
Wake Forest11-01-0
Central Michigan11-00-1
Clemson41-31-3
Florida State106-45-5
Pittsburgh86-25-3
North Carolina82-62-6
Notre Dame32-12-1
Duke85-35-3
Virginia Tech97-24-5
Boston College21-11-1

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home49-1731-35 ATS · 66 games
On the road30-2026-24 ATS · 50 games
Neutral site3-105-8 ATS · 13 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

11,435 miles - ranked 21st heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 11,435 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 011,435 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Stanford2,569 mi5,139 mi
Week 2Florida A&MHome5,139 mi
Week 3Wake Forest701 mi6,541 mi
Week 4Central MichiganHome6,541 mi
Week 5Clemson621 mi7,782 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7Florida StateHome7,782 mi
Week 8PittsburghHome7,782 mi
Week 9North Carolina689 mi9,160 mi
Week 10Notre Dame1,138 mi11,435 mi
Week 11DukeHome11,435 mi
Week 12Virginia TechHome11,435 mi
Week 13Boston CollegeHome11,435 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Miami Hurricanes Season Outlook

Mensah and Toney have formed a record-setting connection

Quarterback Darian Mensah, a transfer from Duke, has been nearly flawless in his first season at Miami. He opened his Hurricanes career by completing 27 of 30 passes for 401 yards and five touchdowns at Stanford, setting program records for passing yards and touchdowns in a debut. Through six games, Mensah has thrown for 1,764 yards with 17 touchdowns and just one interception, and his completion percentage of 88.7% ranks among the best in the country. His favorite target, Malachi Toney, set a school record with 234 receiving yards in the opener and has 47 catches for 696 yards and six scores. The duo has connected on numerous big plays, including a 47-yard touchdown against Stanford and a 3-yard game-winner in double overtime against Florida State. Mensah's streak of 153 pass attempts without an interception to start his Miami career ended in the Florida State game, but his efficiency and decision-making have been elite.

The running game and offensive line have answered preseason questions

Miami entered the season with concerns about an offensive line that lost four starters, but the rebuilt unit has performed well. Center Ryan Rodriguez, true freshman tackle Jackson Cantwell, and former five-star Samson Okunlola have protected Mensah, who has been sacked only a handful of times. The line has also opened holes for a deep backfield. Mark Fletcher Jr. has rushed for 454 yards and six touchdowns, while Javian Mallory has added 342 yards and five scores. In the 41-13 win at Clemson, Miami outgained the Tigers on the ground 192-55, wearing them down in the second half. The line's performance has been a pleasant surprise and a key reason the offense ranks among the nation's best.

The defense is talented but has shown vulnerability against the pass

Miami's defense features a strong defensive line led by Damon Wilson II, Marquise Lightfoot, Armondo Blount, and Ahmad Moten Sr. The unit recorded six sacks against Clemson and has been disruptive in stretches. However, the pass rush has been inconsistent, going two games without a sack before the Clemson game. The secondary, led by cornerbacks Romanas Frederique Jr. and Xavier Lucas and safeties Zechariah Poyser and Bryce Fitzgerald, has had its ups and downs. In the 43-35 double-overtime win over Florida State, the Hurricanes allowed 298 passing yards and four touchdowns, including a 75-yarder that tied the game late. Fitzgerald sealed the win with an interception on the final play, but the pass defense will need to improve against high-powered offenses.

Miami has proven it can win close games, but consistency remains a work in progress

The Hurricanes are 6-0 for the second straight season, but they have shown they are not invincible. After blowout wins over Stanford and Florida A&M, Miami struggled to put away Wake Forest in a 33-20 road win, failing to cover a 20.5-point spread. Against Florida State, the Hurricanes needed double overtime to escape with a 43-35 victory, again failing to cover a 19.5-point line. The offense has been explosive at times but has also had lulls, and the defense has given up big plays. The team's ability to win close games is a positive, but the inconsistent performances against lesser competition suggest there is room for improvement.

The schedule ramps up with Pittsburgh and a trip to Notre Dame looming

Miami's remaining schedule includes a home game against Pittsburgh (5-2) and a highly anticipated road trip to Notre Dame on Nov. 7. The Panthers have a respectable record but are not considered a major threat, while the Fighting Irish could provide a significant challenge. The Hurricanes will need to clean up their inconsistencies, particularly on defense, to navigate the rest of the ACC schedule and stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. With Mensah playing at an elite level and a talented supporting cast, Miami has the pieces to make a run, but the margin for error is shrinking.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Miami Hurricanes's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Miami Hurricanes is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.

What is Miami Hurricanes's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Miami Hurricanes holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +25.0, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Miami Hurricanes's home field advantage rating?

Miami Hurricanes's home field advantage rating is 1.6 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Miami Hurricanes's 2026 win total?

Miami Hurricanes's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 10.5 wins, priced at -140 over and +110 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Miami Hurricanes travel in 2026?

Miami Hurricanes travels 11,435 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 21st heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Miami Hurricanes: 7-0 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +25.0 (2026 records).