UL Monroe Warhawks is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -22.7. UL Monroe Warhawks enters the season with a power rating of -22.7, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The UL Monroe Warhawks head to UAB next in Week 2. In 2025, UL Monroe Warhawks went 3-9 overall, 4-7 against the spread, and 6-5 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the UL Monroe Warhawks Power Rating of -22.7 is 22.7 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UL Monroe Warhawks have logged 401 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,046 miles, ranking 117th heaviest in the FBS.
Aidan Armenta QB, Nic Trujillo WR, Bryce Anderson TE, Donald Chaney Jr. RB, AJ Vinson OL
Noah Flemmings LB, Marcus Ross LB, Armoni Rue CB
Max Larson K, Jacob Chambless K, Abram Murray K, Makenzie Ryan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 4 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 2-5 | 5-2 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 2-7 | 5-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 4-7 | 6-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -19.4 in the preseason and finished -22.7 after week 2, a move of -3.3 points. High -19.4 (the preseason), low -22.7 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +6.0 is regressed to +3.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.7 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| SE Louisiana | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| South Alabama | 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Troy | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Southern Miss | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Arkansas State | 10 | 1-9 | 1-9 |
| Louisiana | 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| App State | 6 | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Marshall | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Mississippi State, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech.
Week 04,046 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Mississippi State | 200 mi | 401 mi |
| Week 2 | UAB | 313 mi | 1,027 mi |
| Week 3 | SE Louisiana | Home | 1,027 mi |
| Week 4 | Florida Atlantic | Home | 1,027 mi |
| Week 5 | South Alabama | 261 mi | 1,549 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Louisiana Tech | Home | 1,549 mi |
| Week 8 | Troy | 362 mi | 2,272 mi |
| Week 9 | Southern Miss | Home | 2,272 mi |
| Week 10 | Arkansas State | 242 mi | 2,757 mi |
| Week 11 | Louisiana | Home | 2,757 mi |
| Week 12 | App State | 645 mi | 4,046 mi |
| Week 13 | Marshall | Home | 4,046 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
ULM opened 2026 with a 62-13 loss at Mississippi State, a game that highlighted the gap between the Warhawks and a Power Four opponent. The offense managed just 278 total yards, with quarterback Aidan Armenta completing 10 of 16 passes for only 63 yards. The defense, which had shown improvement in 2025, was overwhelmed by 762 total yards from the Bulldogs, a program record. The loss extended ULM's streak of season-opening struggles against higher-tier competition and underscored the challenges of a roster rebuilt with over 20 junior college and 20 transfer additions.
The Warhawks entered the season needing to replace four of five starters on the offensive line, and the opener did little to ease those worries. Armenta, who threw eight interceptions in 2025, was under constant pressure and could not push the ball downfield. The passing game, which ranked last in the Sun Belt in yards per game last season, showed no signs of a breakout. The lone returning starter up front, tackle AJ Vinson, anchors a unit that will need to gel quickly if ULM hopes to establish any consistency. The running game, once a strength, also struggled to find traction without last year's leading rusher.
ULM's defense was a bright spot in 2025, finishing sixth in the Sun Belt in total defense, but the opener revealed persistent issues. The secondary, featuring four new faces including junior-college transfer Armoni Rue, was beaten deep repeatedly, allowing a 70-yard touchdown pass. The linebacker duo of Noah Flemmings and Marcus Ross brings experience, but they were stretched thin trying to cover the middle against SEC speed. While the unit is unlikely to face another offense as potent as Mississippi State's, the Warhawks must cut down on big plays to stay competitive in Sun Belt play.
Head coach Bryant Vincent and his staff brought in a wave of junior college and transfer players to reshape the roster, but that approach comes with risks. The lack of cohesion was evident in the opener, as the team struggled to sustain drives and execute in all three phases. ULM has now lost eight straight games to end each of the last two seasons, and the 2026 start does little to suggest a reversal of that trend. The Warhawks will need the new pieces to develop quickly, but early returns suggest a steep learning curve.
After the lopsided loss to Mississippi State, ULM faces a road trip to UAB in Week 2, where they are a 10-point underdog. The non-conference schedule is unforgiving, but the real season begins with Sun Belt competition. The Warhawks have shown they can compete within their conference, as evidenced by their 3-1 starts in each of the past two seasons. If the offensive line can stabilize and the passing game shows any improvement, ULM could still surprise in league play. However, the margin for error is thin, and the team must avoid the late-season collapses that have plagued them in recent years.
UL Monroe Warhawks is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
UL Monroe Warhawks holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -22.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
UL Monroe Warhawks's home field advantage rating is 3.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
UL Monroe Warhawks's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -115 over and -115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
UL Monroe Warhawks travels 4,046 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 117th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
UL Monroe Warhawks: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -22.7 (2026 records).
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