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UL Monroe Warhawks is 0-6 on the season, 1-5 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -26.6. UL Monroe Warhawks is covering at just 29% since the start of last season (5-12), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The UL Monroe Warhawks head to Troy next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the UL Monroe Warhawks Power Rating of -26.6 is 26.6 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UL Monroe Warhawks have logged 1,549 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,046 miles, ranking 117th heaviest in the FBS.
Aidan Armenta QB, Nic Trujillo WR, Bryce Anderson TE, Donald Chaney Jr. RB, AJ Vinson OL
Noah Flemmings LB, Marcus Ross LB, Armoni Rue CB
Max Larson K, Jacob Chambless K, Abram Murray K, Makenzie Ryan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 4 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 2-5 | 5-2 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 2-7 | 5-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 4-7 | 6-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -19.4 in the preseason and finished -26.6 after week 8, a move of -7.3 points. High -19.4 (the preseason), low -26.6 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +6.0 is regressed to +3.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.7 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| SE Louisiana | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| South Alabama | 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Troy | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Southern Miss | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Arkansas State | 10 | 1-9 | 1-9 |
| Louisiana | 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| App State | 6 | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Marshall | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Mississippi State, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech.
Week 04,046 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Mississippi State | 200 mi | 401 mi |
| Week 2 | UAB | 313 mi | 1,027 mi |
| Week 3 | SE Louisiana | Home | 1,027 mi |
| Week 4 | Florida Atlantic | Home | 1,027 mi |
| Week 5 | South Alabama | 261 mi | 1,549 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Louisiana Tech | Home | 1,549 mi |
| Week 8 | Troy | 362 mi | 2,272 mi |
| Week 9 | Southern Miss | Home | 2,272 mi |
| Week 10 | Arkansas State | 242 mi | 2,757 mi |
| Week 11 | Louisiana | Home | 2,757 mi |
| Week 12 | App State | 645 mi | 4,046 mi |
| Week 13 | Marshall | Home | 4,046 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
UL Monroe is 0-6 and has not won since September 27, 2025, a 13-game slide. The defense has been the main culprit, allowing at least 38 points in every game and giving up 52 to South Alabama in the Sun Belt opener. The secondary, rebuilt with four new starters including junior-college transfer Armoni Rue, has been repeatedly beaten deep: Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns, UAB's Ryder Burton found EJ Reid for a 43-yard go-ahead score, and South Alabama's Jared Hollins threw for 321 yards and three scores. The Warhawks have allowed 222.3 passing yards per game last season and have not improved in 2025.
The rebuilt offensive line, which replaced four of five starters, struggled mightily in the first two games, managing just 278 total yards against Mississippi State and failing to establish the run. But the unit settled in enough to produce a season-best 93 rushing yards from Austin Carlisle at UAB, and the Warhawks scored a season-high 35 points against SE Louisiana. The return of tackle AJ Vinson has been crucial, and the emergence of Carlisle as a running threat (93 yards on 17 carries at UAB) gives the offense a dimension it lacked early. However, the line still must prove it can hold up against stronger fronts like South Alabama and Louisiana Tech.
UL Monroe has rotated between Aidan Armenta and Austin Carlisle at quarterback, with mixed results. Armenta, the returning starter, threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns against South Alabama but also tossed an interception. Carlisle started against SE Louisiana and threw two touchdown passes but also lost a fumble and was intercepted twice, leading to his benching. The turnover problems have been costly: Carlisle's pick-six against SE Louisiana and his interception at UAB set up opponents' scores. The Warhawks have yet to find consistent quarterback play, and the offense remains one-dimensional when the run game stalls.
A recurring theme under head coach Bryant Vincent has been the team's failure to finish. ULM led UAB 17-10 at halftime and 20-17 in the fourth quarter before an interception led to UAB's go-ahead field goal. Against SE Louisiana, the Warhawks fell behind 31-13 in the third quarter and could not complete the comeback despite a late touchdown. The pattern of competing for three quarters and then faltering has been evident all season, and it is a major reason the team remains winless. The Warhawks have been outscored 107-48 in the second half of their last three games.
UL Monroe added more than 20 junior-college players and another 20 transfer portal additions in the offseason, creating a roster with limited cohesion. The results have been predictable: blowout losses to Mississippi State and Florida Atlantic, a late collapse at UAB, and a home loss to FCS SE Louisiana. The Warhawks have struggled to establish an identity on either side of the ball, and the lack of continuity has shown up in missed assignments and communication breakdowns, particularly in the secondary. With the season already lost, the focus shifts to building for the future and evaluating which of these newcomers can be foundational pieces.
UL Monroe Warhawks is 1-5 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 17% of games.
UL Monroe Warhawks holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -26.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
UL Monroe Warhawks's home field advantage rating is 3.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
UL Monroe Warhawks's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -115 over and -115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
UL Monroe Warhawks travels 4,046 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 117th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
UL Monroe Warhawks: 0-6 overall, 1-5 ATS, power rating -26.6 (2026 records).