Week 13
UB Stadium

Miami (OH)37 @FINAL 20Buffalo , Week 13, Nov 20, 2025

5-5 MAC Power rating: -4.6
5-5 MAC Power rating: -8.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
M-OH -2.5
PM Implied
M-OH -1.4
Blue Chip model
M-OH -1.7
Edge
+0.8BUF
See details
◂ favors M-OHfavors BUF ▸Market: M-OH -2.5
‹ 4.2 M-OH
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BUF
no impact
no impact
no impact
BUF
1 M-OH1 BUF2 M-OH2 BUFModel: M-OH -1.7

Betting information

Spread
M-OH -2.5
Total
38.5
Odds implied score
M-OH 20.5 – 18.0 BUF
Prediction markets
M-OH 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Miami (OH) defeated Buffalo 37–20 to secure a comfortable win. Miami (OH) covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 18.5. The market closed at Miami (OH) -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami (OH) -1.7. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Miami (OH) vs Buffalo?

Miami (OH)

New QB Emerges

Redshirt freshman Thomas Gotkowski made his first career start and accounted for two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing), providing a spark after the previous starter struggled. His performance suggests the offense may have found a reliable leader.

Balanced Offensive Attack

Jordan Brunson rushed for 123 yards, and D'Shawntae Jones added two rushing touchdowns, complementing Gotkowski's passing. This balance will be key for future games, especially against tougher defenses.

Defensive Resilience

After allowing 17 unanswered points to fall behind 20-17, the defense tightened up, forcing two interceptions and holding Buffalo scoreless for the rest of the game. This ability to adjust under pressure bodes well for close contests ahead.

Bowl Eligibility Secured

The win made Miami (OH) bowl eligible for the fifth straight year, boosting team morale and providing extra motivation for the final regular-season game and potential postseason play.

Conference Title Hopes Alive

At 5-2 in MAC play, Miami remains in contention for the conference championship, trailing only Western Michigan. Every remaining game is crucial, and the team's recent offensive improvements could be decisive.

What were the weather conditions for Miami (OH) vs Buffalo?

At kickoff, conditions at UB Stadium were Fog, 33°F with winds of 4 mph. At 33°F, cold is worth noting but is unlikely to be decisive. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Miami (OH) travels 392 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Miami (OH) won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Miami (OH) covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 18.5 points.

How do Miami (OH) and Buffalo compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (OH) (-4.6) over Buffalo (-8.8) by 4.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Buffalo faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Buffalo brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Miami (OH) won and Miami (OH) covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 20, 2025 Game-time

Fog

33°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity98%
Wind4 mph ESE
Gusts6 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Miami (OH) at Buffalo: aerial view of UB Stadium, wind from the ESE at 3.6 mph, gusting to 6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
UB Stadium
Capacity
25,013
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Miami (OH)Away BuffaloHome
This week392 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game610 miles
Season total3,405 miles3,626 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days