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Week 13 •
Glass Bowl

Ball State9 @FINAL 38Toledo

4-6 MAC Power rating: -15.4
6-4 MAC Power rating: 2.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TOL -29.5
PM Implied
TOL -19.2
Blue Chip model
TOL -21.3
Edge
-8.3BALL
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors TOL ▸Market: TOL -29.5
18.3 › TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TOL
TOL
no impact
no impact
BALL
5 BALL5 TOLModel: TOL -21.3

Betting information

Spread
TOL -29.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
BALL 8.0 – 37.5 TOL
Prediction markets
TOL 96% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Toledo defeated Ball State 38–9 in a dominant performance. Ball State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 1.5. The market closed at Toledo -29.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Toledo -21.3 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Ball State, of which 7.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Ball State vs Toledo?

Ball State

Offensive Struggles Continue

Ball State managed only 9 points, with a lone touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kiael Kelly completed just 13 of 30 passes for 166 yards and threw two interceptions, highlighting ongoing issues with passing efficiency and ball security.

Defensive Vulnerability Exposed

The defense allowed 38 points and 218 passing yards with four touchdown passes from Toledo's Tucker Gleason. Most critically, they gave up a program-record 17 tackles for loss, indicating significant struggles in stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.

Lack of Explosive Plays

Ball State's offense failed to generate big plays, with their longest gain being a 15-yard touchdown run by Isaiah Thacker. The team's inability to create chunk plays limited their scoring opportunities and kept them from mounting a comeback.

Turnover Issues Persist

Kelly's two interceptions contributed to a negative turnover margin, which has been a recurring problem for Ball State. This directly led to Toledo's early scoring drives and put the Cardinals in a 24-3 halftime deficit.

Late-Season Momentum Lost

With the loss, Ball State fell to 4-7 overall and 3-4 in MAC play, ending any hopes of a bowl game. The team will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline in the offseason to improve next year.

What were the weather conditions for Ball State vs Toledo?

At kickoff, conditions at Glass Bowl were Partly cloudy, 40°F, wind chill 39°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 137 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Toledo won by 29 in a dominant performance.

Ball State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 1.5 points.

How do Ball State and Toledo compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (2.9) over Ball State (-15.4) by 18.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Toledo brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ball State and Toledo?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Toledo won and Ball State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

40°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind3 mph WNW
Gusts5 mph
Wind chill39°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Ball State at Toledo: aerial view of Glass Bowl, wind from the WNW at 2.7 mph, gusting to 4.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM EST
Venue
Glass Bowl
Capacity
26,038
Elevation
610 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Ball StateAway ToledoHome
This week137 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game318 miles
Season total3,412 miles4,468 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest7 days9 days

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