DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Toledo defeated Ball State 38–9 in a dominant performance. Ball State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 1.5. The market closed at Toledo -29.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Toledo -21.3 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Ball State, of which 7.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Ball State managed only 9 points, with a lone touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kiael Kelly completed just 13 of 30 passes for 166 yards and threw two interceptions, highlighting ongoing issues with passing efficiency and ball security.
The defense allowed 38 points and 218 passing yards with four touchdown passes from Toledo's Tucker Gleason. Most critically, they gave up a program-record 17 tackles for loss, indicating significant struggles in stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
Ball State's offense failed to generate big plays, with their longest gain being a 15-yard touchdown run by Isaiah Thacker. The team's inability to create chunk plays limited their scoring opportunities and kept them from mounting a comeback.
Kelly's two interceptions contributed to a negative turnover margin, which has been a recurring problem for Ball State. This directly led to Toledo's early scoring drives and put the Cardinals in a 24-3 halftime deficit.
With the loss, Ball State fell to 4-7 overall and 3-4 in MAC play, ending any hopes of a bowl game. The team will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline in the offseason to improve next year.
At kickoff, conditions at Glass Bowl were Partly cloudy, 40°F, wind chill 39°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Partly cloudy
40°F
| Measure | Ball StateAway | ToledoHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 137 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 318 miles |
| Season total | 3,412 miles | 4,468 miles |
| Body clock | 14:00 | 14:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 9 days |
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