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Week 13 •
FBC Mortgage Stadium

Oklahoma State14 @FINAL 17UCF

1-9 Big 12 Power rating: -11.9
4-6 Big 12 Power rating: 7.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UCF -13.5
PM Implied
UCF -9.6
Blue Chip model
UCF -22.4
Edge
+8.9UCF
See details
◂ favors OKSTfavors UCF ▸Market: UCF -13.5
18.9 › UCF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UCF
no impact
UCF
no impact
no impact
5 OKST5 UCF10 OKST10 UCFModel: UCF -22.4

Betting information

Spread
UCF -13.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
OKST 17.0 – 30.5 UCF
Prediction markets
UCF 83% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UCF defeated Oklahoma State 17–14 in a nail-biter. Oklahoma State covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 16.5. The market closed at UCF -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UCF -22.4 - a gap of 8.9 points toward UCF, of which 7.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Oklahoma State vs UCF?

At kickoff, conditions at FBC Mortgage Stadium were Clear, 72°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Oklahoma State travels 1,061 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Oklahoma State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UCF won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Oklahoma State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 16.5 points.

How do Oklahoma State and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UCF (7.0) over Oklahoma State (-11.9) by 18.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Oklahoma State and UCF?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UCF won and Oklahoma State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Clear

72°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind6 mph WNW
Gusts11 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Oklahoma State at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the WNW at 5.6 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM EST
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Oklahoma StateAway UCFHome
This week1,061 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,541 miles
Season total6,775 miles8,278 miles
Body clock15:0016:00
Rest7 days7 days

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