South Florida Bulls

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South Florida Bulls is 5-2 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.5. South Florida Bulls is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The South Florida Bulls host UAB next in Week 9.

Conference: American Athletic Conference
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Power Rating (most current): -0.5
HFA Rating:3.0 pts
2026 Win Total:8.5
2026 Record: 5-2
2026 ATS: 3-4
2026 O/U: 3-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the South Florida Bulls Power Rating of -0.5 is 0.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. South Florida Bulls have logged 5,887 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,467 miles, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.

South Florida Bulls Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachBrian Hartline
TenureFirst season
Offensive coordinatorTim Beck
Defensive coordinatorJosh Aldridge

Offense

Bryson Rodgers WR, Mudia Reuben WR, Wyatt Sullivan TE, Michael Van Buren Jr. QB, Luke Kromenhoek QB, KJ Cooper QB, D.J. Crowther RB, Jason Collins Jr. RB

Defense

C.J. Hicks EDGE, Shamar Meikle EDGE, Major Dillard DL, Grayson Howard LB, Za'Quan Bryan CB, Israel Boyce S, Tavin Ward S

Special teams

Nico Gramatica K, Luke Goater P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS9-4 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-02-00-2
Week 32-12-11-2
Week 43-13-12-2
Week 64-14-13-2
Week 75-15-14-2
Week 86-16-14-3
Week 96-26-25-3
Week 117-27-26-3
Week 127-37-37-3
Week 138-38-37-4
Week 149-39-37-5
Postseason9-49-47-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +2.3 in the preseason and finished -0.5 after week 8, a move of -2.8 points. High +2.3 (the preseason), low -1.7 (week 7).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +2.3 to -0.5.

PreW8

South Florida Bulls SP+ Profile

Offence+27.559 of 138higher is better
Defence+30.197 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.398 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.1 pts
HFA measured+4.9 pts
HFA applied+3.0 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +4.9 is regressed to +3.0 before it is applied, a difference of 1.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Temple83-54-4
UTSA21-11-1
UAB32-11-2
East Carolina74-32-5
Memphis61-53-3
Florida Atlantic32-12-1
Tulane51-40-5

No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International, Army, Delaware State, Bowling Green, Kent State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home34-2528-31 ATS · 59 games
On the road20-3530-25 ATS · 55 games
Neutral site5-33-5 ATS · 8 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

7,467 miles - ranked 62nd heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 7,467 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 07,467 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Florida InternationalHome0 mi
Week 2Army1,043 mi2,086 mi
Week 3Delaware StateHome2,086 mi
Week 4Bowling Green926 mi3,938 mi
Week 5TempleHome3,938 mi
Week 6UTSA974 mi5,887 mi
Week 7Kent StateHome5,887 mi
Week 8-Bye
Week 9UABHome5,887 mi
Week 10East Carolina606 mi7,099 mi
Week 11MemphisHome7,099 mi
Week 12Florida Atlantic184 mi7,467 mi
Week 13TulaneHome7,467 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

South Florida Bulls Season Outlook

A new era begins with growing pains

Brian Hartline's first season as head coach has brought a wave of new faces, including a quarterback competition between Michael Van Buren Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek, and a transfer-heavy defense under coordinator Josh Aldridge. The Bulls sit at 4-2, but the offense has yet to find a consistent rhythm, scoring 19, 28, 59, 14, 13, and 24 points. The defense, however, has been a steadying force, allowing 9, 24, 17, 6, 17, and 31 points. The team's 2-4 record against the spread reflects an offense that often fails to pull away from inferior opponents.

Defense leads the way

Josh Aldridge's havoc-first defense has been the team's backbone, holding three opponents to 17 points or fewer. Transfers C.J. Hicks and Shamar Meikle have provided pass-rush punch from the Jack position, while cornerback Za'Quan Bryan and safeties Israel Boyce and Tavin Ward have formed a reliable secondary. The unit's ability to create negative plays and force turnovers has kept USF in games even when the offense sputters. However, the defense showed cracks in the loss to UTSA, allowing 31 points, its highest total of the season.

Offensive line not yet dominating

The Bulls projected the largest offensive line in school history, averaging 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds, but that size has not translated into consistent running lanes for D.J. Crowther and Jason Collins Jr. The running game has been held in check against better defenses, and the quarterback room remains unsettled. Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes but has yet to seize the job outright, and the passing attack has been functional rather than explosive. Until the line imposes its will, the offense will continue to rely on field goals and defensive stops.

Special teams a quiet strength

Kicker Nico Gramatica has been a reliable source of points, with five career makes from 50 yards and beyond. His leg has been crucial in games where the offense stalls, providing hidden yards and keeping USF within striking distance. Punter Luke Goater, an Australian import, has been steady, though the return units have been less proven. In a season where margins have been thin, Gramatica's range could be the difference between a win and a loss in close conference games.

Path forward: home cooking and a favorable schedule

USF returns home for Week 7 against Kent State, a team with a power rating of -20.74, offering a chance to get back on track. The Bulls will play four of their next six at Raymond James Stadium, where they have historically been strong. With two expected American contenders, Memphis and Tulane, coming to Tampa, and avoiding Navy and North Texas altogether, the schedule sets up for a potential run. If the offense can find its footing and the defense continues to dictate terms, USF could contend for a conference title in Hartline's first season.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is South Florida Bulls's against-the-spread record in 2026?

South Florida Bulls is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.

What is South Florida Bulls's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

South Florida Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is South Florida Bulls's home field advantage rating?

South Florida Bulls's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is South Florida Bulls's 2026 win total?

South Florida Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does South Florida Bulls travel in 2026?

South Florida Bulls travels 7,467 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

South Florida Bulls: 5-2 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -0.5 (2026 records).