South Florida Bulls is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +1.5. South Florida Bulls enters the season with a power rating of +1.5, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The South Florida Bulls head to Army next in Week 2. In 2025, South Florida Bulls went 9-4 overall, 9-4 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the South Florida Bulls Power Rating of +1.5 is 1.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. South Florida Bulls have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,467 miles, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.
Bryson Rodgers WR, Mudia Reuben WR, Wyatt Sullivan TE, Michael Van Buren Jr. QB, Luke Kromenhoek QB, KJ Cooper QB, D.J. Crowther RB, Jason Collins Jr. RB
C.J. Hicks EDGE, Shamar Meikle EDGE, Major Dillard DL, Grayson Howard LB, Za'Quan Bryan CB, Israel Boyce S, Tavin Ward S
Nico Gramatica K, Luke Goater P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 9-3 | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 9-4 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +9.9 in the preseason and finished +13.7 after the postseason, a move of +3.8 points. High +15.0 (week 15), low +9.2 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.9 is regressed to +3.0 before it is applied, a difference of 1.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temple | 8 | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| UTSA | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| UAB | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| East Carolina | 7 | 4-3 | 2-5 |
| Memphis | 6 | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Florida Atlantic | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Tulane | 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International, Army, Delaware State, Bowling Green, Kent State.
Week 07,467 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Florida International | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Army | 1,043 mi | 2,086 mi |
| Week 3 | Delaware State | Home | 2,086 mi |
| Week 4 | Bowling Green | 926 mi | 3,938 mi |
| Week 5 | Temple | Home | 3,938 mi |
| Week 6 | UTSA | 974 mi | 5,887 mi |
| Week 7 | Kent State | Home | 5,887 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | UAB | Home | 5,887 mi |
| Week 10 | East Carolina | 606 mi | 7,099 mi |
| Week 11 | Memphis | Home | 7,099 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida Atlantic | 184 mi | 7,467 mi |
| Week 13 | Tulane | Home | 7,467 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
South Florida enters its 30th season with a first-time head coach in Brian Hartline, who built his reputation developing receivers at Ohio State. The roster has been reshaped through the transfer portal, with wideouts like Bryson Rodgers, a Tampa Bay area product who followed Hartline from Columbus, joining holdovers Mudia Reuben and tight end Wyatt Sullivan. The quarterback battle features former four-star Michael Van Buren Jr., who started four games at LSU in 2025, competing with Luke Kromenhoek from Mississippi State and KJ Cooper from Texas Southern. The running back duo of D.J. Crowther (929 yards, 10 touchdowns at Dartmouth) and Jason Collins Jr. (1,009 career yards at Morgan State) gives the offense a proven ground threat.
The Bulls project to field the largest offensive line in program history, averaging 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds, which should help open lanes for the new running back tandem. On special teams, kicker Nico Gramatica returns after hitting 18 of 24 field goals last season, including a 52-yarder, and he has five career makes from 50-plus yards. Punter Luke Goater, an Australian import, continues a nine-year tradition of Aussie punters at USF, though his 36.2-yard average leaves room for improvement.
This is the Bulls' last year at Raymond James Stadium before moving to a new $348.5 million on-campus facility in 2027. The schedule sets up favorably for a conference title push: USF hosts two of the American's expected contenders, Memphis and Tulane, while avoiding Navy and North Texas entirely. With a Power 4-level budget and a coach known for elite recruiting, the program is positioned to contend for its first conference championship, though questions remain about how quickly Hartline's system will gel with so many new faces.
The biggest uncertainty is at quarterback, where Van Buren has the most Power 4 starting experience but still has limited reps, and the competition with Kromenhoek and Cooper may extend into the season. The defense, while talented, relies heavily on transfers who must adapt to a new coordinator's aggressive style, and Howard's injury history is a concern. The offensive line's size is promising, but it is unproven against American Athletic Conference competition. Special teams, particularly punting, could be a weak link if Goater's average does not improve. The season opener against Florida International, where USF is a 14-point favorite, will be an early test of whether the new pieces can come together quickly.
South Florida Bulls is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
South Florida Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +1.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
South Florida Bulls's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
South Florida Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
South Florida Bulls travels 7,467 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
South Florida Bulls: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +1.5 (2026 records).
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