26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
38
Final
45
14
Final
42
24
Final
20
13
Final
6
20
Final
59
49
Final
51
23
Final
52
24
Final
37
38
Final
17
24
Final
25
28
Final
27
20
Final
35
10
Final
21
24
Final
27
56
Final
21
31
Final
39
24
Final
31
20
Final
31
49
Final
39
10
Final
13
23
Final
15
10
Final
28
17
Final
34
49
Final
27
17
Final
28
20
Final
24
21
Final
14
13
Final
28
31
Final
35
0
Final
26
31
Final
10
49
Final
56
20
Final
16
24
Final
57
32
Final
38
3
Final
39
17
Final
20
7
Final
24
27
Final
34
17
Final
34
31
Final
30
42
Final
19
16
Final
21
13
Final
21
South Florida Bulls is 5-2 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.5. South Florida Bulls is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The South Florida Bulls host UAB next in Week 9.
In Week 7 of 2026 the South Florida Bulls Power Rating of -0.5 is 0.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. South Florida Bulls have logged 5,887 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,467 miles, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.
Bryson Rodgers WR, Mudia Reuben WR, Wyatt Sullivan TE, Michael Van Buren Jr. QB, Luke Kromenhoek QB, KJ Cooper QB, D.J. Crowther RB, Jason Collins Jr. RB
C.J. Hicks EDGE, Shamar Meikle EDGE, Major Dillard DL, Grayson Howard LB, Za'Quan Bryan CB, Israel Boyce S, Tavin Ward S
Nico Gramatica K, Luke Goater P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 9-3 | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 9-4 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +2.3 in the preseason and finished -0.5 after week 8, a move of -2.8 points. High +2.3 (the preseason), low -1.7 (week 7).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.9 is regressed to +3.0 before it is applied, a difference of 1.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temple | 8 | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| UTSA | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| UAB | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| East Carolina | 7 | 4-3 | 2-5 |
| Memphis | 6 | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Florida Atlantic | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Tulane | 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International, Army, Delaware State, Bowling Green, Kent State.
Week 07,467 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Florida International | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Army | 1,043 mi | 2,086 mi |
| Week 3 | Delaware State | Home | 2,086 mi |
| Week 4 | Bowling Green | 926 mi | 3,938 mi |
| Week 5 | Temple | Home | 3,938 mi |
| Week 6 | UTSA | 974 mi | 5,887 mi |
| Week 7 | Kent State | Home | 5,887 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | UAB | Home | 5,887 mi |
| Week 10 | East Carolina | 606 mi | 7,099 mi |
| Week 11 | Memphis | Home | 7,099 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida Atlantic | 184 mi | 7,467 mi |
| Week 13 | Tulane | Home | 7,467 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Brian Hartline's first season as head coach has brought a wave of new faces, including a quarterback competition between Michael Van Buren Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek, and a transfer-heavy defense under coordinator Josh Aldridge. The Bulls sit at 4-2, but the offense has yet to find a consistent rhythm, scoring 19, 28, 59, 14, 13, and 24 points. The defense, however, has been a steadying force, allowing 9, 24, 17, 6, 17, and 31 points. The team's 2-4 record against the spread reflects an offense that often fails to pull away from inferior opponents.
Josh Aldridge's havoc-first defense has been the team's backbone, holding three opponents to 17 points or fewer. Transfers C.J. Hicks and Shamar Meikle have provided pass-rush punch from the Jack position, while cornerback Za'Quan Bryan and safeties Israel Boyce and Tavin Ward have formed a reliable secondary. The unit's ability to create negative plays and force turnovers has kept USF in games even when the offense sputters. However, the defense showed cracks in the loss to UTSA, allowing 31 points, its highest total of the season.
The Bulls projected the largest offensive line in school history, averaging 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds, but that size has not translated into consistent running lanes for D.J. Crowther and Jason Collins Jr. The running game has been held in check against better defenses, and the quarterback room remains unsettled. Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes but has yet to seize the job outright, and the passing attack has been functional rather than explosive. Until the line imposes its will, the offense will continue to rely on field goals and defensive stops.
Kicker Nico Gramatica has been a reliable source of points, with five career makes from 50 yards and beyond. His leg has been crucial in games where the offense stalls, providing hidden yards and keeping USF within striking distance. Punter Luke Goater, an Australian import, has been steady, though the return units have been less proven. In a season where margins have been thin, Gramatica's range could be the difference between a win and a loss in close conference games.
USF returns home for Week 7 against Kent State, a team with a power rating of -20.74, offering a chance to get back on track. The Bulls will play four of their next six at Raymond James Stadium, where they have historically been strong. With two expected American contenders, Memphis and Tulane, coming to Tampa, and avoiding Navy and North Texas altogether, the schedule sets up for a potential run. If the offense can find its footing and the defense continues to dictate terms, USF could contend for a conference title in Hartline's first season.
South Florida Bulls is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
South Florida Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
South Florida Bulls's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
South Florida Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
South Florida Bulls travels 7,467 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 62nd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
South Florida Bulls: 5-2 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -0.5 (2026 records).