Week 11 •
Raymond James Stadium

Memphis @ South Florida , Week 11, Nov 13, 2026

5-1 American Power rating: 5.3
4-2 American Power rating: -1.7

Is there value in the Memphis vs South Florida line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
MEM -4.5
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors MEMfavors USF ▸
‹ 7.0 MEM
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1 MEM1 USF2 MEM2 USF3 MEM3 USFModel: MEM -4.5

Memphis (power rating: 5.3) carries a 7.0-point advantage over South Florida (-1.7) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. South Florida's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0) narrows that gap at Raymond James Stadium. Beyond home field, the model charges Memphis's bye week, with a slighter reading for the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Memphis vs South Florida at Raymond James Stadium?

The latest reading for Raymond James Stadium shows Cloudy, 74°F with winds of 11 mph. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Memphis and South Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (5.3) over South Florida (-1.7) by 7.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, South Florida faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. South Florida brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Memphis -4.5. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2026 Preliminary

Cloudy

74°F

Rain23%
Precip0.00"
Humidity87%
Wind11 mph NE
Gusts22 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Memphis at South Florida: aerial view of Raymond James Stadium, wind from the NE at 11.4 mph, gusting to 21.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM EST
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Capacity
69,218
Elevation
72 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Measure MemphisAway South FloridaHome
This week660 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,211 miles
Season total8,278 miles7,099 miles
Body clock19:0020:00
Rest13 days6 days

Memphis travels 660 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. Memphis arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.