Duke Blue Devils is 5-2 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +6.5. Duke Blue Devils is 5-2 on the season, with no single factor standing out strongly in the current data. The Duke Blue Devils host Boston College next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Duke Blue Devils Power Rating of +6.5 is 6.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Duke Blue Devils have logged 2,136 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,712 miles, ranking 125th heaviest in the FBS.
Walker Eget QB, Nate Sheppard RB, Jordan Larsen OL, Matt Craycraft OL, Micah Sahakian OL, Nick Del Grande OL, Jared Richardson WR, Jayden Moore WR
David Anderson DL, Preston Watson DL, Tyshod Reed EDGE, Nick Morris Jr. LB, Luke Mergott LB, Dylan Flowers CB, Evan Smith S, Patrick Smith-Young S, Landon Callahan CB, DaShawn Stone S
Cosme Salas K, Kade Reynoldson P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Week 10 | 5-3 | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 7-2 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 6-5 | 4-5-1 | 8-3 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 5-5-1 | 9-3 |
| Week 15 | 8-5 | 6-5-1 | 9-4 |
| Postseason | 9-5 | 6-6-1 | 10-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +5.2 in the preseason and finished +6.5 after week 8, a move of +1.2 points. High +10.6 (week 5), low +5.2 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.8 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Illinois | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Georgia Tech | 9 | 3-6 | 4-3-2 |
| North Carolina | 10 | 5-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Virginia | 10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Boston College | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| NC State | 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Miami | 8 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Clemson | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Wake Forest | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Stanford, William & Mary.
Week 03,712 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Tulane | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Illinois | 580 mi | 1,160 mi |
| Week 3 | Stanford | Home | 1,160 mi |
| Week 4 | William & Mary | Home | 1,160 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Georgia Tech | 345 mi | 1,851 mi |
| Week 7 | North Carolina | Home | 1,851 mi |
| Week 8 | Virginia | 142 mi | 2,136 mi |
| Week 9 | Boston College | Home | 2,136 mi |
| Week 10 | NC State | 18 mi | 2,172 mi |
| Week 11 | Miami | 696 mi | 3,564 mi |
| Week 12 | Clemson | Home | 3,564 mi |
| Week 13 | Wake Forest | 74 mi | 3,712 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Nate Sheppard has been the engine of Duke's offense, leading the nation in rushing yards per game for much of the season. He opened with a career-best 227 yards and two touchdowns against Tulane, then posted 147 rushing yards and three total scores at Illinois, 154 yards and three scores versus Stanford, and 116 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries against William & Mary. Even in the loss to Georgia Tech, he compiled 99 rushing yards and 91 receiving yards. Sheppard's ability to churn out yards behind an offensive line anchored by Jordan Larsen, Matt Craycraft, Micah Sahakian, and Nick Del Grande gives Duke a reliable identity and a high floor each week.
Walker Eget's debut was shaky (13 of 26 for 131 yards against Tulane), but he rebounded with a 15 of 21, 206-yard, three-touchdown performance at Illinois. He followed that with efficient showings against Stanford (14 of 24 for 202 yards) and William & Mary (16 of 22 for 182 yards and two scores). The emergence of Jared Richardson (a 28-yard touchdown catch versus William & Mary) and the reliable tight end Jeremiah Hasley has made the offense less one-dimensional. However, Eget's interception in the end zone against Stanford and his occasional accuracy issues remain a concern, and the passing game will need to be consistent for Duke to compete against stronger ACC defenses.
Duke's rebuilt front seven was historically stout through the first four games, holding Tulane to 54 rushing yards, Illinois to 54, and William & Mary to 170 total yards in a 62-7 rout. The unit, featuring David Anderson, Preston Watson, Tyshod Reed, and a returning Nick Morris Jr., looked like the team's strength. But Georgia Tech's Trelain Maddox gashed the Blue Devils for 81 rushing yards and three touchdowns, including a 60-yard score, exposing cracks. North Carolina's Jaylen McGill then broke free for a 24-yard game-winning touchdown. The run defense must regain its early form for Duke to control games.
The transfer-laden secondary (Dylan Flowers, Evan Smith, Patrick Smith-Young, plus returners Landon Callahan and DaShawn Stone) was torched by Illinois' Collin Dixon for 11 catches, 166 yards, and three touchdowns. Georgia Tech's Alberto Mendoza then completed 23 of 30 passes for 218 yards, with Jordan Allen catching 10 for 99 yards and the game-winner. North Carolina's Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 191 yards and led a late scoring drive. While Tulane and William & Mary were too limited to exploit this group, competent passing attacks have moved the ball at will. Improved communication and coverage are critical.
Duke entered the Georgia Tech game ranked 124th nationally in penalties and took six more for 71 yards, with both of the Yellow Jackets' first-half touchdown drives kept alive by third-down penalties and a personal foul aiding the final scoring march. Against North Carolina, the Blue Devils again couldn't hold a late lead, surrendering the winning touchdown with under two minutes left. These self-inflicted wounds and inability to close out tight games have turned a 4-0 start into a 4-2 record. Cleaning up penalties and executing in crunch time are essential for Duke to reach its ceiling.
Duke Blue Devils is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.
Duke Blue Devils holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +6.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Duke Blue Devils's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Duke Blue Devils's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -130 over and +100 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Duke Blue Devils travels 3,712 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 125th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Duke Blue Devils: 5-2 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +6.5 (2026 records).
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