Duke Blue Devils is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +5.3. Duke Blue Devils enters the season with a power rating of +5.3, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Duke Blue Devils head to Illinois next in Week 2. In 2025, Duke Blue Devils went 9-5 overall, 6-6-1 against the spread, and 10-4 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Duke Blue Devils Power Rating of +5.3 is 5.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Duke Blue Devils have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,712 miles, ranking 125th heaviest in the FBS.
Walker Eget QB, Nate Sheppard RB, Jordan Larsen OL, Matt Craycraft OL, Micah Sahakian OL, Nick Del Grande OL, Jared Richardson WR, Jayden Moore WR
David Anderson DL, Preston Watson DL, Tyshod Reed EDGE, Nick Morris Jr. LB, Luke Mergott LB, Dylan Flowers CB, Evan Smith S, Patrick Smith-Young S, Landon Callahan CB, DaShawn Stone S
Cosme Salas K, Kade Reynoldson P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Week 10 | 5-3 | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 7-2 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 6-5 | 4-5-1 | 8-3 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 5-5-1 | 9-3 |
| Week 15 | 8-5 | 6-5-1 | 9-4 |
| Postseason | 9-5 | 6-6-1 | 10-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +6.7 in the preseason and finished +12.4 after the postseason, a move of +5.7 points. High +12.4 (week 15), low +6.7 (the preseason).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.8 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Illinois | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Georgia Tech | 9 | 3-6 | 4-3-2 |
| North Carolina | 10 | 5-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Virginia | 10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Boston College | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| NC State | 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Miami | 8 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Clemson | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Wake Forest | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Stanford, William & Mary.
Week 03,712 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Tulane | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Illinois | 580 mi | 1,160 mi |
| Week 3 | Stanford | Home | 1,160 mi |
| Week 4 | William & Mary | Home | 1,160 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Georgia Tech | 345 mi | 1,851 mi |
| Week 7 | North Carolina | Home | 1,851 mi |
| Week 8 | Virginia | 142 mi | 2,136 mi |
| Week 9 | Boston College | Home | 2,136 mi |
| Week 10 | NC State | 18 mi | 2,172 mi |
| Week 11 | Miami | 696 mi | 3,564 mi |
| Week 12 | Clemson | Home | 3,564 mi |
| Week 13 | Wake Forest | 74 mi | 3,712 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Duke enters 2026 without Darian Mensah, who left for Miami in the portal, and turns to Walker Eget, a San Jose State transfer. Eget threw for 3,051 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions last season, completing 59% of his passes. Those numbers are solid but below Mensah's production, and the offense that led the ACC in scoring at 34.6 points per game may take a step back. The supporting cast is strong: running back Nate Sheppard returns after a 1,132-yard, 11-touchdown freshman year, and the offensive line brings back left guard Jordan Larsen and center Matt Craycraft, with right tackle Micah Sahakian returning from injury and Coastal Carolina transfer Nick Del Grande at left tackle. Wide receiver Jared Richardson, a 1,000-yard receiver at FCS Penn, is expected to start.
Cosme Salas takes over full placekicking duties as a sophomore after serving as the kickoff specialist last season. He has a strong leg but must prove his accuracy. Punter Kade Reynoldson is a bright spot, averaging 44.6 yards per punt as a sophomore. Nate Sheppard could add explosiveness as a punt returner, and wide receiver Jayden Moore is a threat on kickoffs. If Salas struggles, close games could slip away, but the return game has the potential to flip field position.
Duke won its first ACC championship since 1989, but that came despite five regular-season losses and a favorable tiebreaker scenario. The Blue Devils are not expected to match last season's offensive output, and the defense has many new starters. The culture and belief are strong, thanks in part to Manny Diaz retaining strength coach Dave Feeley, which has fostered toughness and stability. However, the loss of Mensah at a late date left Duke without a comparable replacement, and the team will need to rely on its running game and defensive improvement to stay competitive in the ACC.
Nate Sheppard is the offensive centerpiece, and his production will be vital if Eget struggles. The offensive line, with Larsen, Craycraft, Sahakian, and Del Grande, should provide a solid foundation. On defense, the development of Morris and Mergott at linebacker, along with the secondary transfers, will be crucial. Duke opens the season at home against Tulane, a game where they are favored by 7.5 points. A strong start could build confidence, but a slow start could expose the team's vulnerabilities early.
Duke Blue Devils is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Duke Blue Devils holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +5.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Duke Blue Devils's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Duke Blue Devils's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -130 over and +100 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Duke Blue Devils travels 3,712 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 125th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Duke Blue Devils: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +5.3 (2026 records).
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