Week 6
Valley Children's Stadium

Boise State @ Fresno State , Week 6, Oct 11, 2026

0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: 5.2
0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: -3.9

Is there value in the Boise State vs Fresno State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
BOIS -6.3
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors FRES ▸
‹ 9.1 BOIS
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FRES
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FRES
1 BOIS1 FRES2 BOIS2 FRES3 BOIS3 FRESModel: BOIS -6.3

Boise State (power rating: 5.2) carries a 9.1-point advantage over Fresno State (-3.9) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Fresno State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at Valley Children's Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Boise State vs Fresno State at Valley Children's Stadium?

The latest reading for Valley Children's Stadium shows Clear, 80°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Boise State and Fresno State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (5.2) over Fresno State (-3.9) by 9.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Fresno State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Fresno State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Boise State -6.3. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

80°F

Rain1%
Precip0.00"
Humidity22%
Wind10 mph WNW
Gusts16 mph
Wind map for Boise State at Fresno State: aerial view of Valley Children's Stadium, wind from the WNW at 9.8 mph, gusting to 16.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PDT
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
351 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Boise StateAway Fresno StateHome
This week505 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,395 miles
Season total4,285 miles2,058 miles
Body clock20:3019:30
Rest8 days7 days

Boise State travels 505 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. Boise State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.