Week 6
Centennial Bank Stadium

South Alabama @ Arkansas State , Week 6, Oct 8, 2026

0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.8
0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.0

Is there value in the South Alabama vs Arkansas State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ARST -5.4
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors USAfavors ARST ▸
ARST
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
no impact
no impact
no impact
ARST
1 USA1 ARST2 USA2 ARST3 USA3 ARSTModel: ARST -5.4

Arkansas State (power rating: -9.0) holds a 1.8-point advantage over South Alabama (-10.8) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Arkansas State's home field adds 3.1 points to that advantage at Centennial Bank Stadium. Beyond home field, the model also charges the heat. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect South Alabama vs Arkansas State at Centennial Bank Stadium?

The latest reading for Centennial Bank Stadium shows Clear, 88°F, heat index 90°F with winds of 13 mph. Gusts reaching 30 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do South Alabama and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-9.0) over South Alabama (-10.8) by 1.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Arkansas State -5.4. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

88°F

Rain1%
Precip0.00"
Humidity43%
Wind13 mph SSW
Gusts30 mph
Heat index90°F
Wind map for South Alabama at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the SSW at 12.5 mph, gusting to 29.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure South AlabamaAway Arkansas StateHome
This week383 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game793 miles
Season total1,729 miles1,800 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest5 days5 days

South Alabama travels 383 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.