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Week 7 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

Arkansas State @ Southern Miss

0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.0
0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -15.7

By · Last updated

Is there value in the Arkansas State vs Southern Miss line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ARST -4.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors USM ▸
‹ 6.7 ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 ARST1 USM2 ARST2 USMModel: ARST -4.2

Arkansas State (power rating: -9.0) carries a 6.7-point advantage over Southern Miss (-15.7) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Southern Miss's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Arkansas State vs Southern Miss at M. M. Roberts Stadium?

The latest reading for M. M. Roberts Stadium shows Fog, 75°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Arkansas State and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-9.0) over Southern Miss (-15.7) by 6.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Southern Miss faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and Southern Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Blue Chip makes this Arkansas State -4.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Fog

75°F

Rain20%
Precip0.00"
Humidity94%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for Arkansas State at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the SE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 19.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
11:00 PM CDT
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway Southern MissHome
This week321 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game404 miles
Season total2,121 miles1,101 miles
Body clock23:0023:00
Rest9 days10 days

Arkansas State travels 321 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

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