Week 12
Joe Aillet Stadium

Arkansas State @ Louisiana Tech , Week 12, Nov 21, 2026

0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.0
0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.5

Is there value in the Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
LT -5.0
Edge
No line posted
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Louisiana Tech (power rating: -7.5) holds a 1.5-point advantage over Arkansas State (-9.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Louisiana Tech's home field adds 3.2 points to that advantage at Joe Aillet Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech at Joe Aillet Stadium?

The latest reading for Joe Aillet Stadium shows Clear, 83°F, heat index 86°F with winds of 5 mph. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisiana Tech (-7.5) over Arkansas State (-9.0) by 1.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisiana Tech brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Louisiana Tech -5.0. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

83°F

Rain4%
Precip0.00"
Humidity61%
Wind5 mph ESE
Gusts21 mph
Heat index86°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech: aerial view of Joe Aillet Stadium, wind from the ESE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 20.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
11:00 PM CST
Venue
Joe Aillet Stadium
Capacity
23,000
Elevation
269 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Arkansas StateAway Louisiana TechHome
This week255 miles0 miles
Last week1,354 milesHome game
Season total4,051 miles2,325 miles
Body clock23:0023:00
Rest7 days7 days

Arkansas State travels 255 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.