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Week 13 •
Centennial Bank Stadium

Troy @ Arkansas State

3-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.5
2-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.4

By · Last updated

Is there value in the Troy vs Arkansas State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ARST -0.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors TROYfavors ARST ▸
TROY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 TROY1 ARST2 TROY2 ARST3 TROY3 ARSTModel: ARST -0.2

Troy (power rating: -7.5) carries a 2.9-point advantage over Arkansas State (-10.4) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Arkansas State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1) narrows that gap at Centennial Bank Stadium. Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Troy vs Arkansas State at Centennial Bank Stadium?

The latest reading for Centennial Bank Stadium shows Clear, 60°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Troy and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Troy (-7.5) over Arkansas State (-10.4) by 2.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Troy and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Blue Chip makes this Arkansas State -0.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

60°F

Rain2%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind8 mph SE
Gusts20 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Troy at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the SE at 7.8 mph, gusting to 19.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CST
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TroyAway Arkansas StateHome
This week389 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game511 miles
Season total7,048 miles4,306 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days

Troy travels 389 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

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