Week 5
Falcon Stadium

Navy @ Air Force , Week 5, Oct 3, 2026

0-0 American Power rating: 3.2
0-0 MW Power rating: -5.4

Is there value in the Navy vs Air Force line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
NAVY -4.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors NAVYfavors AF ▸
‹ 8.6 NAVY
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1 NAVY1 AF2 NAVY2 AFModel: NAVY -4.2

Navy (power rating: 3.2) carries a 8.6-point advantage over Air Force (-5.4) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Air Force's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at Falcon Stadium. Beyond home field, the model also charges Navy's westward trip and the altitude at Falcon Stadium. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Navy vs Air Force at Falcon Stadium?

The latest reading for Falcon Stadium shows Patchy rain nearby, 62°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Navy and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Navy (3.2) over Air Force (-5.4) by 8.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Air Force faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Navy -4.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2026 Preliminary

Patchy rain nearby

62°F

Rain6%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind4 mph WSW
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Navy at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the WSW at 3.8 mph, gusting to 4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
10:00 AM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure NavyAway Air ForceHome
This week1,519 miles0 miles
Last week1,373 miles1,606 miles
Season total4,680 miles1,606 miles
Body clock12:0010:00
Rest8 days7 days

Navy travels 1,519 miles to this game, a cross-country trip. That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.