Week 11
Plaster Sports Complex

New Mexico State @ Missouri State , Week 11, Nov 14, 2026

0-1 CUSA Power rating: -18.1
0-0 CUSA Power rating: -15.7

Is there value in the New Mexico State vs Missouri State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
MOST -5.4
Edge
No line posted
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1 NMSU1 MOST2 NMSU2 MOSTModel: MOST -5.4

Missouri State (power rating: -15.7) holds a 2.4-point advantage over New Mexico State (-18.1) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Missouri State's home field adds 2.5 points to that advantage at Plaster Sports Complex. Beyond home field, the model also charges the heat. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect New Mexico State vs Missouri State at Plaster Sports Complex?

The latest reading for Plaster Sports Complex shows Clear, 91°F, heat index 92°F with winds of 12 mph. Gusts reaching 28 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do New Mexico State and Missouri State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri State (-15.7) over New Mexico State (-18.1) by 2.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Missouri State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Missouri State -5.4. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

91°F

Rain2%
Precip0.00"
Humidity38%
Wind12 mph S
Gusts28 mph
Heat index92°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for New Mexico State at Missouri State: aerial view of Plaster Sports Complex, wind from the S at 11.6 mph, gusting to 28 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CST
Venue
Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity
17,500
Elevation
1,339 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure New Mexico StateAway Missouri StateHome
This week837 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,188 miles
Season total14,572 miles6,566 miles
Body clock13:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days

New Mexico State travels 837 miles to this game, a significant road trip. New Mexico State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.