SMU Mustangs

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SMU Mustangs is 6-1 on the season, 2-3-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +10.1. SMU Mustangs carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 30th with 10,217 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The SMU Mustangs head to Syracuse next in Week 9.

Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference
Stadium: Gerald Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Power Rating (most current): +10.1
HFA Rating:3.8 pts
2026 Win Total:8.5
2026 Record: 6-1
2026 ATS: 2-3-2
2026 O/U: 3-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the SMU Mustangs Power Rating of +10.1 is 10.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. SMU Mustangs have logged 2,952 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,217 miles, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.

SMU Mustangs Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachRhett Lashlee
Tenure4 seasons
Record38-16
Offensive coordinatorsGarin Justice, D’Eriq King
Defensive coordinatorsMaurice Crum Jr., Rickey Hunley Jr.

Offense

Kevin Jennings QB, Jalen Hale WR, Yannick Smith WR, Jalen Cooper WR, Isaiah Robertson WR, Yamir Knight WR, Kendrick Raphael RB, Dramekco Green RB, PJ Williams OL, Link Rhodes WR, Daylon Singleton WR

Defense

Marcellus Barnes Jr. CB, William Nettles CB, Tyren Polley Jr. S, Jimmy Wyrick S, Jarvis Lee CB, Jayvon Thomas CB, Brandon Booker LB, Alexander Kilgore LB, Brandon Miyazono LB, Christian Davis DL, Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder DL, Jonathan Jefferson DL, Aakil Washington EDGE, Ira Singleton IV EDGE, Tavion Atkinson EDGE, Marques White EDGE, Jahkai Lang EDGE

Special teams

Nick Reed K, Wade McSparron P, Morgan Tribett LS

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS6-7 O/U4-9
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-10-1
Week 21-10-21-1
Week 32-10-31-2
Week 42-20-41-3
Week 63-20-51-4
Week 74-21-51-5
Week 85-22-52-5
Week 95-32-62-6
Week 106-33-62-7
Week 117-34-63-7
Week 138-35-63-8
Week 148-45-74-8
Postseason9-46-74-9

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +12.8 in the preseason and finished +10.1 after week 8, a move of -2.8 points. High +13.4 (week 1), low +8.7 (week 7).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +12.8 to +10.1.

PreW8

SMU Mustangs SP+ Profile

Offence+31.925 of 138higher is better
Defence+20.731 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4102 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.4 pts
HFA measured+6.7 pts
HFA applied+3.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +6.7 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 2.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Florida State11-01-0
Louisville22-02-0
Missouri State11-00-1
Boston College32-11-2
Virginia11-01-0
California21-11-1
Syracuse11-00-1
Wake Forest10-10-1
Stanford22-02-0

No meeting on record since 2016: UC Davis, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home46-1436-23-1 ATS · 60 games
On the road33-2826-35 ATS · 61 games
Neutral site1-41-4 ATS · 5 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

10,217 miles - ranked 30th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 10,217 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 010,217 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Florida State753 mi1,507 mi
Week 2UC DavisHome1,507 mi
Week 3Louisville722 mi2,952 mi
Week 4Missouri StateHome2,952 mi
Week 5Boston CollegeHome2,952 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7VirginiaHome2,952 mi
Week 8CaliforniaHome2,952 mi
Week 9Syracuse1,324 mi5,599 mi
Week 10Virginia TechHome5,599 mi
Week 11Wake ForestHome5,599 mi
Week 12Notre Dame842 mi7,283 mi
Week 13Stanford1,467 mi10,217 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

SMU Mustangs Season Outlook

Jennings drives a high-powered but mistake-prone offense

Kevin Jennings has been the engine of the SMU offense, leading the nation in passing yards per game at one point and becoming the program's career passing leader. He threw for a career-best 430 yards and three touchdowns in the opener at Florida State, then matched a career high with five touchdown passes in a half against UC Davis. Against Missouri State, he completed 21 consecutive passes, a school record, and finished with 464 yards. However, the offense has been plagued by turnovers and self-inflicted errors. Jennings threw two interceptions against Florida State and two more at Louisville, and the Mustangs lost a muffed punt in the opener. Against Missouri State, two first-quarter turnovers spotted the Bears a 10-0 lead. The run game has been effective when featured, with Kendrick Raphael rushing for 197 yards at Louisville and 124 against Virginia, but the offense has yet to put together a clean four-quarter performance against a quality opponent.

Defense shows progress, especially in the pass rush

After a shaky start in which Florida State rushed for 177 yards, the SMU defense has tightened up. The pass rush, a major question mark early, erupted for five sacks against Boston College, with Marques White recording three sacks and forcing a fumble that set up a touchdown. The run defense has been solid since the opener, holding Louisville to 265 yards on the ground but limiting big plays for most of the game. The secondary, revamped with transfers like Jimmy Wyrick and Jayvon Thomas, has held up well, holding Virginia to 258 total yards and Boston College to 208 passing yards. The Mustangs have allowed 24, 10, 41, 24, 16, and 13 points in their six games, showing improvement as the season has progressed.

Special teams remain a glaring weakness

Placekicking has been an adventure all season. The Mustangs missed two field goals against Missouri State and botched two PAT attempts against Boston College, one due to a high snap and another due to a mishandled snap. Against Virginia, walk-on Brendan Baird, a former SMU soccer player, stabilized the unit by making all three of his field goal attempts, including a 45-yarder before halftime. However, the consistency is still lacking, and the coaching staff has expressed frustration. The punt team also had a muffed punt in the opener that led to a Florida State touchdown. With the offense moving the ball well between the 20s, converting scoring opportunities will be crucial in close games down the stretch.

Situational football and discipline are holding the team back

SMU has outgained every opponent this season but has consistently left points on the field due to penalties and turnovers. Against Missouri State, the Mustangs committed 12 penalties for 106 yards. Against Boston College, three holding penalties on a single drive pushed them into a fourth-and-50 situation. Against Louisville, they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and were stopped twice on fourth down, both leading to Louisville touchdowns. Head coach Rhett Lashlee acknowledged after the Missouri State game that the team doesn't make itself hard to beat. Cleaning up these mistakes will be essential as the schedule tightens and the margins shrink.

Path forward: ACC race and home dominance

SMU is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in ACC play, with its only loss coming at Louisville. The Mustangs are 10-0 at home in ACC games since joining the conference in 2024 and have won 17 of 19 ACC games overall. With four of their remaining six games at home, including a matchup with California next, SMU is well-positioned to contend for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. However, the team must address its turnover and penalty issues to avoid another loss like the one at Louisville. The defense's improvement, particularly the pass rush, is a promising sign, but the special teams must become more reliable. If Jennings continues his stellar play and the supporting cast cuts down on mistakes, SMU has the talent to make a run at the conference title and a College Football Playoff berth.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is SMU Mustangs's against-the-spread record in 2026?

SMU Mustangs is 2-3-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 40% of games.

What is SMU Mustangs's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

SMU Mustangs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +10.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is SMU Mustangs's home field advantage rating?

SMU Mustangs's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is SMU Mustangs's 2026 win total?

SMU Mustangs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does SMU Mustangs travel in 2026?

SMU Mustangs travels 10,217 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

SMU Mustangs: 6-1 overall, 2-3-2 ATS, power rating +10.1 (2026 records).