SMU Mustangs is 0-0 on the season, 0-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +13.4. SMU Mustangs enters the season with a power rating of +13.4, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The SMU Mustangs head to Florida State next in Week 1. In 2025, SMU Mustangs went 9-4 overall, 6-7 against the spread, and 4-9 on totals.
In Week 0 of 2026 the SMU Mustangs Power Rating of +13.4 is 13.4 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. SMU Mustangs have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,217 miles, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.
Kevin Jennings QB, Jalen Hale WR, Yannick Smith WR, Jalen Cooper WR, Isaiah Robertson WR, Yamir Knight WR, Kendrick Raphael RB, Dramekco Green RB, PJ Williams OL, Link Rhodes WR, Daylon Singleton WR
Marcellus Barnes Jr. CB, William Nettles CB, Tyren Polley Jr. S, Jimmy Wyrick S, Jarvis Lee CB, Jayvon Thomas CB, Brandon Booker LB, Alexander Kilgore LB, Brandon Miyazono LB, Christian Davis DL, Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder DL, Jonathan Jefferson DL, Aakil Washington EDGE, Ira Singleton IV EDGE, Tavion Atkinson EDGE, Marques White EDGE, Jahkai Lang EDGE
Nick Reed K, Wade McSparron P, Morgan Tribett LS
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 5-3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 3-6 | 2-7 |
| Week 11 | 7-3 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 6-7 | 4-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +7.7 in the preseason and finished +13.3 after the postseason, a move of +5.6 points. High +14.3 (week 14), low +7.7 (the preseason).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +6.7 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 2.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Louisville | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Boston College | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Virginia | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| California | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Stanford | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: UC Davis, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame.
Week 010,217 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Florida State | 753 mi | 1,507 mi |
| Week 2 | UC Davis | Home | 1,507 mi |
| Week 3 | Louisville | 722 mi | 2,952 mi |
| Week 4 | Missouri State | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 5 | Boston College | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Virginia | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 8 | California | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 9 | Syracuse | 1,324 mi | 5,599 mi |
| Week 10 | Virginia Tech | Home | 5,599 mi |
| Week 11 | Wake Forest | Home | 5,599 mi |
| Week 12 | Notre Dame | 842 mi | 7,283 mi |
| Week 13 | Stanford | 1,467 mi | 10,217 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Kevin Jennings returns for his senior season after a 2025 campaign where he ranked in the top 10 nationally in passing yards despite playing through an injury that limited his running ability. His development as a passer, combined with a rebuilt skill group around him, makes SMU's offense one of the most dangerous in the ACC. The key question is whether he can stay healthy and add a rushing element that was missing last year, which would make the offense even harder to stop.
SMU lost nearly all of its production at wide receiver, tight end, and running back from last season, but the staff reloaded through the transfer portal. Alabama transfer Jalen Hale and East Carolina transfer Yannick Smith bring size and playmaking to the outside, while Yamir Knight returns as a dynamic slot option. At running back, Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael is expected to share carries with sophomore Dramekco Green, giving the offense a fresh but talented backfield. The offensive line, anchored by potential high NFL Draft pick PJ Williams, returns three starters and should provide time for the new pieces to mesh.
Last year's defense showed flashes of brilliance but also gave up game-changing plays at critical moments. The secondary returns cornerbacks Marcellus Barnes Jr. and William 'Speedy' Nettles, plus safety Tyren Polley Jr., and adds transfers Jimmy Wyrick (UTSA), Jarvis Lee (USF), and Jayvon Thomas (Texas A&M) to fill out the unit. The linebacker trio of Brandon Booker, Alexander Kilgore, and Brandon Miyazono is a strength, but the defensive line was overhauled with Christian Davis (Louisiana Tech) and Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (Kansas State) joining a returning Jonathan Jefferson, who missed all of 2025 with injury. The pass rush, led by Aakil Washington, Ira Singleton IV, and others, will be critical to avoiding the big plays that hurt them last season.
Placekicking was a major weakness in 2025, so SMU brought in Nick Reed, an All-American from FCS New Hampshire, to stabilize the position. Punter Wade McSparron and long-snapper Morgan Tribett return, giving the unit experience. Yamir Knight is locked in as the punt returner, while kickoff return duties are still open between Link Rhodes and Daylon Singleton. If Reed proves reliable, special teams could swing close games in SMU's favor.
Head coach Rhett Lashlee has built SMU into one of the most consistent programs in the country, with a 38-16 record over four years. With Jennings back and a roster bolstered by key transfers, the Mustangs are among the favorites to win the ACC and reach the College Football Playoff. The schedule includes a tough early test at Florida State, but the team's talent and coaching should keep them in contention all season. The biggest concerns are health at quarterback and whether the new pieces on offense and defense can gel quickly enough to meet the lofty goals.
SMU Mustangs is 0-0 against the spread in the 2026 season.
SMU Mustangs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +13.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
SMU Mustangs's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
SMU Mustangs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
SMU Mustangs travels 10,217 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
SMU Mustangs: 0-0 overall, 0-0 ATS, power rating +13.4 (2026 records).
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