26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
38
Final
45
14
Final
42
24
Final
20
13
Final
6
20
Final
59
49
Final
51
23
Final
52
24
Final
37
38
Final
17
24
Final
25
28
Final
27
20
Final
35
10
Final
21
24
Final
27
56
Final
21
31
Final
39
24
Final
31
20
Final
31
49
Final
39
10
Final
13
23
Final
15
10
Final
28
17
Final
34
49
Final
27
17
Final
28
20
Final
24
21
Final
14
13
Final
28
31
Final
35
0
Final
26
31
Final
10
49
Final
56
20
Final
16
24
Final
57
32
Final
38
3
Final
39
17
Final
20
7
Final
24
27
Final
34
17
Final
34
31
Final
30
42
Final
19
16
Final
21
13
Final
21
SMU Mustangs is 6-1 on the season, 2-3-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +10.1. SMU Mustangs carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 30th with 10,217 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The SMU Mustangs head to Syracuse next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the SMU Mustangs Power Rating of +10.1 is 10.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. SMU Mustangs have logged 2,952 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,217 miles, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.
Kevin Jennings QB, Jalen Hale WR, Yannick Smith WR, Jalen Cooper WR, Isaiah Robertson WR, Yamir Knight WR, Kendrick Raphael RB, Dramekco Green RB, PJ Williams OL, Link Rhodes WR, Daylon Singleton WR
Marcellus Barnes Jr. CB, William Nettles CB, Tyren Polley Jr. S, Jimmy Wyrick S, Jarvis Lee CB, Jayvon Thomas CB, Brandon Booker LB, Alexander Kilgore LB, Brandon Miyazono LB, Christian Davis DL, Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder DL, Jonathan Jefferson DL, Aakil Washington EDGE, Ira Singleton IV EDGE, Tavion Atkinson EDGE, Marques White EDGE, Jahkai Lang EDGE
Nick Reed K, Wade McSparron P, Morgan Tribett LS
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 5-3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 3-6 | 2-7 |
| Week 11 | 7-3 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 6-7 | 4-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +12.8 in the preseason and finished +10.1 after week 8, a move of -2.8 points. High +13.4 (week 1), low +8.7 (week 7).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +6.7 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 2.9 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Louisville | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Boston College | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Virginia | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| California | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Stanford | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: UC Davis, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame.
Week 010,217 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Florida State | 753 mi | 1,507 mi |
| Week 2 | UC Davis | Home | 1,507 mi |
| Week 3 | Louisville | 722 mi | 2,952 mi |
| Week 4 | Missouri State | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 5 | Boston College | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Virginia | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 8 | California | Home | 2,952 mi |
| Week 9 | Syracuse | 1,324 mi | 5,599 mi |
| Week 10 | Virginia Tech | Home | 5,599 mi |
| Week 11 | Wake Forest | Home | 5,599 mi |
| Week 12 | Notre Dame | 842 mi | 7,283 mi |
| Week 13 | Stanford | 1,467 mi | 10,217 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Kevin Jennings has been the engine of the SMU offense, leading the nation in passing yards per game at one point and becoming the program's career passing leader. He threw for a career-best 430 yards and three touchdowns in the opener at Florida State, then matched a career high with five touchdown passes in a half against UC Davis. Against Missouri State, he completed 21 consecutive passes, a school record, and finished with 464 yards. However, the offense has been plagued by turnovers and self-inflicted errors. Jennings threw two interceptions against Florida State and two more at Louisville, and the Mustangs lost a muffed punt in the opener. Against Missouri State, two first-quarter turnovers spotted the Bears a 10-0 lead. The run game has been effective when featured, with Kendrick Raphael rushing for 197 yards at Louisville and 124 against Virginia, but the offense has yet to put together a clean four-quarter performance against a quality opponent.
After a shaky start in which Florida State rushed for 177 yards, the SMU defense has tightened up. The pass rush, a major question mark early, erupted for five sacks against Boston College, with Marques White recording three sacks and forcing a fumble that set up a touchdown. The run defense has been solid since the opener, holding Louisville to 265 yards on the ground but limiting big plays for most of the game. The secondary, revamped with transfers like Jimmy Wyrick and Jayvon Thomas, has held up well, holding Virginia to 258 total yards and Boston College to 208 passing yards. The Mustangs have allowed 24, 10, 41, 24, 16, and 13 points in their six games, showing improvement as the season has progressed.
Placekicking has been an adventure all season. The Mustangs missed two field goals against Missouri State and botched two PAT attempts against Boston College, one due to a high snap and another due to a mishandled snap. Against Virginia, walk-on Brendan Baird, a former SMU soccer player, stabilized the unit by making all three of his field goal attempts, including a 45-yarder before halftime. However, the consistency is still lacking, and the coaching staff has expressed frustration. The punt team also had a muffed punt in the opener that led to a Florida State touchdown. With the offense moving the ball well between the 20s, converting scoring opportunities will be crucial in close games down the stretch.
SMU has outgained every opponent this season but has consistently left points on the field due to penalties and turnovers. Against Missouri State, the Mustangs committed 12 penalties for 106 yards. Against Boston College, three holding penalties on a single drive pushed them into a fourth-and-50 situation. Against Louisville, they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and were stopped twice on fourth down, both leading to Louisville touchdowns. Head coach Rhett Lashlee acknowledged after the Missouri State game that the team doesn't make itself hard to beat. Cleaning up these mistakes will be essential as the schedule tightens and the margins shrink.
SMU is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in ACC play, with its only loss coming at Louisville. The Mustangs are 10-0 at home in ACC games since joining the conference in 2024 and have won 17 of 19 ACC games overall. With four of their remaining six games at home, including a matchup with California next, SMU is well-positioned to contend for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. However, the team must address its turnover and penalty issues to avoid another loss like the one at Louisville. The defense's improvement, particularly the pass rush, is a promising sign, but the special teams must become more reliable. If Jennings continues his stellar play and the supporting cast cuts down on mistakes, SMU has the talent to make a run at the conference title and a College Football Playoff berth.
SMU Mustangs is 2-3-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 40% of games.
SMU Mustangs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +10.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
SMU Mustangs's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
SMU Mustangs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
SMU Mustangs travels 10,217 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 30th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
SMU Mustangs: 6-1 overall, 2-3-2 ATS, power rating +10.1 (2026 records).