Week 11
Williams Stadium (VA)

Middle Tennessee @ Liberty , Week 11, Nov 14, 2026

0-0 CUSA Power rating: -20.2
0-0 CUSA Power rating: -7.9

Is there value in the Middle Tennessee vs Liberty line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
LIB -14.7
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors MTSUfavors LIB ▸
12.3 › LIB
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1 MTSU1 LIB2 MTSU2 LIBModel: LIB -14.7

Liberty (power rating: -7.9) holds a 12.3-point advantage over Middle Tennessee (-20.2) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Liberty's home field adds 2.4 points to that advantage at Williams Stadium (VA). Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Middle Tennessee vs Liberty at Williams Stadium (VA)?

The latest reading for Williams Stadium (VA) shows Light rain shower, 75°F with winds of 4 mph. There is a 62% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Middle Tennessee and Liberty compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Liberty (-7.9) over Middle Tennessee (-20.2) by 12.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Liberty brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Liberty -14.7. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Light rain shower

75°F

Rain62%
Precip0.02"
Humidity91%
Wind4 mph SW
Gusts5 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Middle Tennessee at Liberty: aerial view of Williams Stadium (VA), wind from the SW at 4.3 mph, gusting to 4.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity
25,000
Elevation
883 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Middle TennesseeAway LibertyHome
This week413 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,199 miles
Season total3,892 miles5,092 miles
Body clock14:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

Middle Tennessee travels 413 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. Middle Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.