Week 13 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee , Week 13, Nov 28, 2026

2-4 CUSA Power rating: -15.1
2-3 CUSA Power rating: -18.3

Is there value in the New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
NMSU -0.4
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors NMSUfavors MTSU ▸
‹ 3.2 NMSU
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1 NMSU1 MTSU2 NMSU2 MTSUModel: NMSU -0.4

New Mexico State (power rating: -15.1) carries a 3.2-point advantage over Middle Tennessee (-18.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Middle Tennessee's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3) narrows that gap at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from New Mexico State's trip and the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium?

The latest reading for Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium shows Clear, 51°F with winds of 7 mph. Gusts reaching 29 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor New Mexico State (-15.1) over Middle Tennessee (-18.3) by 3.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this New Mexico State -0.4. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

51°F

Rain2%
Precip0.00"
Humidity50%
Wind7 mph SSE
Gusts29 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the SSE at 7.4 mph, gusting to 28.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM CST
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure New Mexico StateAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week1,192 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,275 miles
Season total16,601 miles5,580 miles
Body clock12:0013:00
Rest7 days7 days

New Mexico State travels 1,192 miles to this game, a significant road trip. New Mexico State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.