DraftKings · as of October 8, 2026
Penn State (power rating: 11.8) carries a 1.5-point advantage over Michigan (10.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Michigan's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9) narrows that gap at Michigan Stadium. The market line is Michigan -5.5 and our model shows Michigan -1.4; Strong model lean toward Penn State. Beyond home field, the model charges Michigan's bye week, with a slighter reading for the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for Michigan Stadium shows Overcast, 55°F with winds of 11 mph. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction market pricing is not yet available for this game. The bookmaker spread of Michigan -5.5 sets the line for now. The Blue Chip model makes it Michigan -1.4; see the line value calculator below for the full breakdown.
Overcast
55°F
| Measure | Penn StateAway | MichiganHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 321 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Bye week |
| Season total | 1,668 miles | 1,021 miles |
| Body clock | 00:00 | 00:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 14 days |
Penn State travels 321 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.
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