Week 7 • October 09, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC
1-4
CUSA
Power Rank: -6.6
19 FINAL 8
1-4
CUSA
Power Rank: -14.2
Liberty covered by 9.5 | Game went Under by 20.5
Liberty @ UTEP Preview

General Information

Week: Week 7
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:00 PM MDT
Stadium: Sun Bowl
Capacity: 51,500
Elevation: 3904 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Liberty -1.5
Total (O/U) 47.5
Expected Score LIB 24.5 - 23.0 UTEP
Power Rank Implied Line Liberty +7.6
Prediction Markets Liberty 53% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

43.7°F

Wind Chill: 40.1°F
Wind: 5.8 mph E
Gusts: 8.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 43%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Liberty (Away)

This Week: 1599.2 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 3541.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 20:00
Rest Days: 12

UTEP (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 6162.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:00
Rest Days: 12

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Liberty -1.5
Total Points 47.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Liberty -6.6
UTEP -14.2
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 1599 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Sun Bowl
Capacity 51,500
Elevation 3904 ft
🌤️ Weather: Clear
Temperature 43.7°F
Wind Speed 5.8 mph
Your Line UTEP -7.6
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Liberty

Defensive struggles against the run

Liberty allowed 338 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, with Cam Cook alone accounting for 195 yards and 2 TDs. This represents a significant weakness that opposing teams will likely exploit, as the Flames showed they cannot stop a committed ground attack.

Turnover problems proving costly

Liberty committed two turnovers (fumble and interception) that Jacksonville State converted into 14 points in the first half. These mistakes directly contributed to falling behind early and having to play catch-up throughout the game.

Explosive offensive potential remains intact

Despite the loss, Liberty showed they can strike quickly with big plays, including a 52-yard rushing TD by Evan Dickens and a 62-yard passing TD from Ethan Vasko to Donte Lee Jr. QB Vasko threw for 335 yards on efficient 19-for-29 passing.

Fourth quarter resilience but not enough

Liberty scored two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to keep the game within seven points, showing they don't give up easily. However, they couldn't complete the comeback, suggesting they may struggle when falling behind early against quality opponents.

Conference USA title defense off to rocky start

As defending CUSA champions, Liberty's 1-1 start with a loss to the other recent conference champion Jacksonville State puts early pressure on their title defense hopes and suggests the conference race will be highly competitive.

UTEP

Defensive Pressure Shines Despite Loss

UTEP's defense recorded six sacks and 12 tackles for loss, forcing Utah State into five consecutive punts at one point. This disruptive performance kept the game within reach and is a positive sign for the unit's ability to pressure opponents moving forward.

Offensive Struggles in Critical Moments

The offense failed to capitalize on the defense's strong performance, managing only 16 points. The failed two-point conversion attempt after their late touchdown in the fourth quarter prevented them from closing the gap to a one-score game, highlighting execution issues in key situations.

Run Game Shows Potential

Asthen Emory's late 2-yard touchdown run was part of a ground attack that will need to be more consistent. Developing a reliable rushing offense to complement the defense will be crucial for controlling games and taking pressure off the passing attack.

Need for Faster Starts

UTEP found itself down 20-10 at halftime, forcing them to play from behind. Improving early-game execution on both sides of the ball to avoid early deficits will be a key focus heading into the next contest.

Defense Must Limit Big Plays

While the defense generated pressure, it also surrendered explosive touchdowns—a 58-yard run and a 52-yard pass—that proved decisive. Correcting these coverage and gap discipline breakdowns to prevent chunk plays will be essential for future success.