ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026
Navy defeated UAB 38–24 in a double-digit victory. UAB covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 3.5. The market closed at Navy -22.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Navy -17.9 - a gap of 4.6 points toward UAB, of which 3.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
UAB was shut out in the second half after leading 24-17 at halftime, allowing 21 unanswered points. This indicates a lack of adjustments or stamina, which could be a concern for future games.
UAB committed three turnovers in the second half (a fumble and two interceptions by Jalen Kitna), directly leading to Navy's scoring drives. Protecting the ball will be critical in upcoming matchups.
Kitna threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns but also had two interceptions in the second half. His ability to avoid turnovers while maintaining production will be key for UAB's offensive success.
UAB missed a field goal at the end of the first half, failing to extend their lead. This missed opportunity shifted momentum and could have changed the game's outcome.
Two weather delays in the first half may have disrupted UAB's rhythm. How the team handles such disruptions in future games could affect their performance.
Navy shut out UAB in the second half, forcing three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) and holding them scoreless after halftime, which was crucial to overcoming a 24-17 deficit.
Quarterback Blake Horvath accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing, one passing) and completed 6 of 8 passes for 168 yards, while running back Alex Tecza rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown, showcasing a versatile ground and air game.
Despite two weather delays in the first half totaling about two hours, Navy maintained focus and executed a strong second half, indicating mental toughness and adaptability that could benefit them in future games.
Navy's defense forced three turnovers in the second half, directly leading to scoring opportunities and momentum shifts, which will be a critical factor in upcoming matchups.
At kickoff, conditions at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium were Moderate or heavy rain shower, 75°F with winds of 14 mph. Gusts reaching 20 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. A 100% chance of rain with around 1.41 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Moderate or heavy rain shower
75°F
| Measure | UABAway | NavyHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 687 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Home game |
| Season total | 687 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 14:30 | 15:30 |
| Rest | 8 days | 7 days |
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