What are the key factors for UAB vs Navy?

UAB: Key Factors

• Second-half offensive collapse: UAB was shut out in the second half after leading 17-14 at halftime, failing to score any points in the final two quarters.
• Quarterback struggles under pressure: Ryder Burton was sacked on a critical third-and-5 late in the game and threw an incomplete pass on fourth-and-12, ending a key drive with 1:42 left.
• Ineffective passing game: Burton completed 18 of 34 passes for 213 yards with 2 touchdowns, but the offense stalled in the second half, managing only 41 total yards in the final two quarters.
• Rushing attack limited: Jevon Jackson ran for 89 yards on 15 carries, but the team as a whole struggled to establish a consistent ground game, especially in the second half.
• Defensive letdown in key moments: The defense allowed Rice to score 10 unanswered points in the second half, including a 3-yard touchdown pass that put Rice ahead 21-17, and could not force a stop when needed.

Navy: Key Factors

• Clutch Fourth-Down Connection: Blake Horvath threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Eli Heidenreich on 4th-and-goal with 6:32 remaining, capping a rally from a 16-10 deficit. Heidenreich caught six of Horvath's seven completions, showcasing their reliable chemistry in critical moments.
• Turnover Struggles and Recovery: Navy committed three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) but avoided disaster each time. A fumble at the 1-yard line was recovered by Heidenreich, and a fumble by Horvath was ruled down before a second loose ball. These near-misses highlight ball security issues that could be costly against Cincinnati.
• Second-Half Defensive Improvement: After allowing 16 first-half points, Navy's defense stiffened in the second half, holding Army scoreless. Key plays included an interception by Phillip Hamilton and limiting Army's offense after halftime, which will be crucial against Cincinnati's attack.
• Horvath's Dual-Threat Impact: Horvath accounted for both touchdowns (one rushing, one passing) and had a 37-yard run that set up a field goal. However, he also threw an interception and lost a fumble, showing inconsistency that Cincinnati's defense may exploit.
• Resilience in High-Stakes Rivalry: Navy overcame a 16-10 deficit and multiple turnovers to win its second straight over Army, securing the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. This mental toughness and ability to execute under pressure bodes well for a bowl game against Cincinnati.

What happened in the game?

UAB travels 687 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

UAB arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Navy won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Does weather affect this game at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium?

At 28.4°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do UAB and Navy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Navy (1.4) over UAB (-14.7) by 16.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Navy brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UAB and Navy?

• UAB team page
• Navy team page
• College Football Power Ratings
• Home Field Advantage Ratings