26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 2 •
Carter-Finley Stadium

Virginia31 @FINAL 35NC State

1-0 ACC Power rating: 9.5
1-0 ACC Power rating: 2.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NCSU -2.5
PM Implied
NCSU -2.1
Blue Chip model
UVA -2.5
Edge
-5.0UVA
See details
◂ favors UVAfavors NCSU ▸Market: NCSU -2.5
‹ 6.7 UVA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NCSU
NCSU
no impact
no impact
NCSU
2 UVA2 NCSU4 UVA4 NCSUModel: UVA -2.5

Betting information

Spread
NCSU -2.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
UVA 25.0 – 27.5 NCSU
Prediction markets
NCSU 59% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

NC State defeated Virginia 35–31 in a closely contested finish. NC State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 13.5. The market closed at NC State -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Virginia -2.5 - a gap of 5.0 points toward Virginia, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Virginia 6.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Virginia vs NC State?

NC State

Comeback victory and offensive surge

NC State trailed by 10 points but outscored Virginia 21-7 in the third quarter, with two rushing touchdowns from Hollywood Smothers and one from CJ Bailey, showing the offense's ability to rally and dominate after halftime.

Key defensive stops

The Wolfpack held Virginia scoreless in the fourth quarter, made a crucial stop on fourth-and-1 at the 8-yard line with 6:39 left, and sealed the win with an interception in the end zone, highlighting a resilient defense in clutch moments.

Balanced rushing attack

Hollywood Smothers rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns, while CJ Bailey added 44 rushing yards and two scores, giving NC State a powerful ground game that controlled the second half and drained the clock.

Quarterback efficiency

CJ Bailey completed 16-of-22 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, providing steady passing to complement the run game and keep drives alive.

Short week ahead at Wake Forest

NC State travels to face rival Wake Forest on Thursday, giving them a quick turnaround to prepare for a conference opponent, which could test their depth and recovery.

What were the weather conditions for Virginia vs NC State?

At kickoff, conditions at Carter-Finley Stadium were Cloudy, 92°F, heat index 98°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Virginia travels 154 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

NC State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

NC State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 13.5 points.

How do Virginia and NC State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Virginia (9.5) over NC State (2.8) by 6.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, NC State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. NC State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Virginia and NC State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

NC State won and NC State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

92°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity45%
Wind6 mph SW
Gusts9 mph
Heat index98°F
Wind map for Virginia at NC State: aerial view of Carter-Finley Stadium, wind from the SW at 6.3 mph, gusting to 8.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Carter-Finley Stadium
Capacity
56,919
Elevation
410 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

VirginiaAway NC StateHome
This week154 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total154 miles0 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days9 days

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