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Week 2 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Arizona State20 @FINAL 24Mississippi State

1-0 Big 12 Power rating: 7.7
1-0 SEC Power rating: 9.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ASU -5.5
PM Implied
ASU -4.8
Blue Chip model
MSST -3.0
Edge
+8.5MSST
See details
◂ favors ASUfavors MSST ▸Market: ASU -5.5
MSST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
no impact
MSST
no impact
no impact
5 ASU5 MSST10 ASU10 MSSTModel: MSST -3.0

Betting information

Spread
ASU -5.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
ASU 32.0 – 26.5 MSST
Prediction markets
ASU 69% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Mississippi State defeated Arizona State 24–20 in a closely contested finish. Mississippi State covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 14.5. The market closed at Arizona State -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mississippi State -3.0 - a gap of 8.5 points toward Mississippi State, of which 7.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Arizona State vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Partly cloudy, 76°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arizona State travels 1,334 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Arizona State arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Mississippi State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Mississippi State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 14.5 points.

How do Arizona State and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mississippi State (9.1) over Arizona State (7.7) by 1.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arizona State and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

76°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind6 mph NNE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Arizona State at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the NNE at 5.8 mph, gusting to 11.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Arizona StateAway Mississippi StateHome
This week1,334 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game300 miles
Season total1,334 miles300 miles
Body clock16:3018:30
Rest6 days7 days

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