26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 2 •
Jack Trice Stadium

Iowa13 @FINAL 16Iowa State

1-0 Big Ten Power rating: 17.9
2-0 Big 12 Power rating: 10.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ISU -1.5
PM Implied
ISU -3.5
Blue Chip model
IOWA -4.7
Edge
-6.2IOWA
See details
◂ favors IOWAfavors ISU ▸Market: ISU -1.5
‹ 7.9 IOWA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ISU
no impact
no impact
no impact
ISU
2 IOWA2 ISU4 IOWA4 ISU6 IOWA6 ISUModel: IOWA -4.7

Betting information

Spread
ISU -1.5
Prediction markets
ISU 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Iowa State defeated Iowa 16–13 in a nail-biter. Iowa State covered by 1.5. The market closed at Iowa State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Iowa -4.7 - a gap of 6.2 points toward Iowa, of which 5.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Iowa 7.9 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Iowa vs Iowa State?

Iowa State

Clutch Kicking and Late-Game Execution

Kyle Konrardy's 54-yard field goal with 1:52 left sealed the win, marking his second straight game-winning kick against Iowa. The Cyclones' ability to execute under pressure, including a grinding 55-yard drive that consumed 6.5 minutes, highlights their composure in tight games.

Defensive Pressure and Turnovers

Tamatoa McDonough's two sacks on Iowa's final possession forced a turnover on downs, while Jeremiah Cooper's 24-yard interception return set up a short touchdown. The defense's ability to create key stops and turnovers was critical in a low-scoring affair.

Consistency in Close Games

Iowa State's past six wins in the series have been by a total of 15 points, demonstrating a pattern of winning tight contests. This trend suggests the Cyclones are well-prepared for close finishes, which could be a factor against Arkansas State.

Offensive Balance and Time Management

Rocco Becht led a methodical 55-yard drive that chewed up 6.5 minutes, showcasing the offense's ability to control the clock and set up scoring opportunities. This balance will be key against Arkansas State to avoid relying solely on late-game heroics.

Momentum from Rivalry Win

Winning the CyHawk Trophy in Ames for the first time since 2011 provides a significant emotional boost. The Cyclones are 3-0 and have shown resilience, which should carry positive momentum into their next game against Arkansas State.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa vs Iowa State?

At kickoff, conditions at Jack Trice Stadium were Partly cloudy, 62°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa travels 110 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Iowa State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Iowa State covered the spread narrowly.

How do Iowa and Iowa State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Iowa (17.9) over Iowa State (10.0) by 7.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Iowa State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Iowa State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa and Iowa State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Iowa State won and Iowa State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity48%
Wind13 mph NW
Gusts15 mph
Wind map for Iowa at Iowa State: aerial view of Jack Trice Stadium, wind from the NW at 12.8 mph, gusting to 14.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity
61,500
Elevation
915 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

IowaAway Iowa StateHome
This week110 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total110 miles7,782 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week