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Week 2 •
Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Baylor48 @FINAL 45SMU

0-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.3
1-0 ACC Power rating: 9.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SMU -2.5
PM Implied
SMU -1.8
Blue Chip model
SMU -4.6
Edge
+2.1SMU
See details
◂ favors BAYfavors SMU ▸Market: SMU -2.5
SMU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SMU
no impact
no impact
no impact
SMU
2 BAY2 SMU4 BAY4 SMUModel: SMU -4.6

Betting information

Spread
SMU -2.5
Total
65.5
Odds implied score
BAY 31.5 – 34.0 SMU
Prediction markets
SMU 58% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Baylor defeated SMU 48–45 in a nail-biter. Baylor covered by 5.5; Game went Over by 27.5. The market closed at SMU -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it SMU -4.6, an edge of 2.1 points toward SMU.

What are the key factors for Baylor vs SMU?

Baylor

Resilient Comeback Victory

Baylor rallied from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter, scoring two touchdowns in the final 5:30 to force overtime, then won in double OT. This shows the team's mental toughness and ability to perform under pressure, which could carry over into future games.

Sawyer Robertson's Elite Passing

Robertson threw for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns, marking his third consecutive 400-yard game. He joins elite company among Big 12 QBs and has shown no interceptions through two games, making him a reliable fantasy and betting asset.

Explosive Receiving Corps

Ashtyn Hawkins (10 catches, 145 yards), Josh Cameron (9 catches, 151 yards, TD), and Kobe Prentice (4 catches, 63 yards, 2 TDs) all contributed big plays. The depth and big-play ability of the receivers will be a key factor against weaker defenses.

Defensive Struggles and Late-Game Improvement

Baylor allowed 45 points and gave up big plays (two 75-yard TDs), but the defense forced a missed field goal in regulation and held SMU without a first down in the second overtime. Consistency will be needed against stronger opponents.

Favorable Upcoming Schedule

Baylor hosts FCS Samford next week, a team that should be overmatched. This game provides an opportunity to build confidence, work on defensive issues, and potentially rest starters before conference play.

SMU

Dominant Start, Poor Finish

SMU led for 3.5 quarters and was up 38-24 with 8:38 left, but allowed Baylor to score 21 points in the final 5:30 of regulation and overtime, ultimately losing 48-45. This shows a critical inability to close out games against FBS opponents.

Explosive Offense, but Turnovers Hurt

Kevin Jennings threw for 296 yards and 3 TDs, including two 75-yard scores, and TJ Harden ran for 115 yards and 3 TDs. However, a fumble in the fourth quarter led to a Baylor touchdown, shifting momentum. The offense must protect the ball better.

Special Teams Struggles in Clutch

Kicker Collin Rogers missed a 57-yard field goal at the end of regulation and a 38-yard attempt in the second overtime, directly costing SMU the win. This inconsistency is a major concern for close games.

Defensive Collapse Late

After holding Baylor to 24 points through 3.5 quarters, the defense allowed 24 points in the final 5:30 of regulation and overtime, including two touchdown passes in the last 34 seconds. The secondary was exposed against a 400-yard passer.

Momentum from Last Season's Success Fading

SMU has now lost three straight games against FBS opponents (Clemson, Penn State, Baylor) after a strong 2024 season. This pattern suggests they struggle against higher-level competition, which is critical for their next game against Missouri State (FBS transition team).

What were the weather conditions for Baylor vs SMU?

At kickoff, conditions at Gerald J. Ford Stadium were Partly cloudy, 79°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Baylor travels 90 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Baylor won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Baylor covered the spread.

The total went Over by 27.5 points.

How do Baylor and SMU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor SMU (9.9) over Baylor (9.3) by 0.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. SMU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Baylor and SMU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Baylor won and Baylor covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

79°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity55%
Wind1 mph N
Gusts1 mph
Wind map for Baylor at SMU: aerial view of Gerald J. Ford Stadium, wind from the N at 0.7 mph, gusting to 0.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity
32,000
Elevation
594 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BaylorAway SMUHome
This week90 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total90 miles0 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days6 days

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