26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 2 •
Center Parc Stadium

Memphis38 @FINAL 16Georgia State

1-0 American Power rating: 5.0
0-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -16.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MEM -15.5
PM Implied
MEM -10.4
Blue Chip model
MEM -20.1
Edge
-4.6MEM
See details
◂ favors MEMfavors GAST ▸Market: MEM -15.5
‹ 21.6 MEM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
GAST
no impact
no impact
no impact
GAST
2 MEM2 GAST4 MEM4 GASTModel: MEM -20.1

Betting information

Spread
MEM -15.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
MEM 36.5 – 21.0 GAST
Prediction markets
MEM 84% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Memphis defeated Georgia State 38–16 to secure a comfortable win. Memphis covered by 6.5; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Memphis -15.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -20.1 - a gap of 4.6 points toward Memphis, of which 3.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Memphis vs Georgia State?

Georgia State

Quarterback instability

Starter TJ Finley was injured after starting 10-for-10, forcing backup Cameran Brown to step in. Brown had a touchdown running and passing but also threw an interception. Finley returned in the second half but the disruption likely affected offensive rhythm.

Defensive struggles against the run

Memphis rushed for multiple touchdowns, including a 5-yard run by Brendon Lewis and a 1-yard plunge by Makari Bodiford, both on long drives. The Panthers allowed 38 points and couldn't stop Memphis from scoring the last 24 points.

Turnover issues

Georgia State committed a costly interception returned for a touchdown by DeMarco Ward in the final minute, sealing the loss. This marks the second pick-6 allowed in as many games for the Panthers' defense.

Inconsistent offensive production

Despite Finley's strong start (21-of-29 for 201 yards), the offense stalled after his injury. Brown was 8 of 12 for 139 yards but the team only managed 16 points, with a field goal and two touchdowns, failing to sustain drives in the second half.

Special teams bright spot

Gianni Spetic's 55-yard field goal as time expired in the first half gave Memphis the lead, but Georgia State's special teams did not have a notable impact. The Panthers will need to improve in this phase to compete in future games.

What were the weather conditions for Memphis vs Georgia State?

At kickoff, conditions at Center Parc Stadium were Clear, 82°F, heat index 86°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Memphis travels 333 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Memphis arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Memphis won by 22 to secure a comfortable win.

Memphis covered the spread.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do Memphis and Georgia State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (5.0) over Georgia State (-16.6) by 21.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Georgia State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Georgia State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Memphis and Georgia State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Clear

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph NNW
Gusts8 mph
Heat index86°F
Wind map for Memphis at Georgia State: aerial view of Center Parc Stadium, wind from the NNW at 4 mph, gusting to 7.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Center Parc Stadium
Capacity
24,333
Elevation
978 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MemphisAway Georgia StateHome
This week333 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game597 miles
Season total333 miles597 miles
Body clock18:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week