South Florida defeated Florida 18–16 in a nail-biter. South Florida covered by 20.5; Game went Under by 24.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium were Partly cloudy, 86.2°F, Heat Index 90.7°F with winds of 3.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
86.2°F
South Florida upset No. 13 Florida 18-16, marking their second straight win over a ranked team (previously No. 25 Boise State). This is a rare feat for an unranked team since 2000, boosting confidence and national attention.
Kicker Nico Gramatica redeemed an earlier missed 58-yard field goal by hitting a 20-yard game-winner as time expired, showcasing resilience and reliability in high-pressure situations.
The Bulls benefited from Florida's 11 penalties for 103 yards, including two critical infractions on the final drive that aided their game-winning 87-yard march. This highlights their ability to stay composed and exploit errors.
South Florida's defense forced Florida into settling for three field goals early and limited offensive efficiency, despite allowing 355 yards. A 66-yard TD pass was aided by Florida's sideline confusion, but the defense held when needed.
The Bulls face their third consecutive ranked opponent, No. 5 Miami, on the road. This game will test their ability to maintain momentum and handle a hostile environment after two emotional wins.
South Florida travels 116 miles to this game, a short road trip.
South Florida won by 2 in a nail-biter.
South Florida covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 24.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Florida (11.1) over South Florida (10.3) by 0.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
South Florida won and South Florida covered the spread.
