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Week 2 •
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Sam Houston20 @FINAL 37Hawai'i

0-2 CUSA Power rating: -23.3
1-1 MW Power rating: -8.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
HAW -7.5
PM Implied
HAW -6.0
Blue Chip model
HAW -19.8
Edge
+12.3HAW
See details
◂ favors SHSUfavors HAW ▸Market: HAW -7.5
15.1 › HAW
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
HAW
no impact
HAW
no impact
no impact
5 SHSU5 HAW10 SHSU10 HAWModel: HAW -19.8

Betting information

Spread
HAW -7.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
SHSU 20.5 – 28.0 HAW
Prediction markets
HAW 73% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Hawai'i defeated Sam Houston 37–20 to secure a comfortable win. Hawai'i covered by 9.5; Game went Over by 8.5. The market closed at Hawai'i -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Hawai'i -19.8 - a gap of 12.3 points toward Hawai'i, of which 11.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Sam Houston vs Hawai'i?

At kickoff, conditions at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex were Clear, 75°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Sam Houston travels 3,880 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 5 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Hawai'i won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Hawai'i covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 8.5 points.

How do Sam Houston and Hawai'i compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Hawai'i (-8.2) over Sam Houston (-23.3) by 15.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Hawai'i brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Sam Houston and Hawai'i?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Hawai'i won and Hawai'i covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 7, 2025 Game-time

Clear

75°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph ENE
Gusts6 mph
Wind map for Sam Houston at Hawai'i: aerial view of Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, wind from the ENE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 6.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
05:59 PM HST
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Capacity
16,909
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Sam HoustonAway Hawai'iHome
This week3,880 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game5,937 miles
Season total5,235 miles5,937 miles
Body clock22:5917:59
Rest8 days7 days

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