New Mexico State defeated Tulsa 21–14 in a one-score game. New Mexico State covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 18.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Tulsa 6.1 points stronger on a neutral field.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Aggie Memorial Stadium were Cloudy, 72.0°F, Feels Like 76.5°F with winds of 2.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
72.0°F
Logan Fife threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Gavin Harris with 3:23 remaining to secure a 21-14 victory, demonstrating poise under pressure and the ability to lead a game-winning drive.
Fife completed 27 of 44 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, indicating a reliable passing attack that can move the ball effectively through the air.
The Aggies managed only 39 rushing yards on 26 carries, highlighting a significant weakness on the ground that could be exploited by future opponents.
Despite allowing a late go-ahead touchdown, the defense held Tulsa to 14 points and forced key stops, including limiting the Golden Hurricane to just 229 total passing yards from two quarterbacks.
Ryan Hawk made field goals of 46 and 38 yards, providing crucial points in a low-scoring first half and early fourth quarter, showing reliability in the kicking game.
Tulsa travels 673 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Tulsa arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
New Mexico State won by 7 in a one-score game.
New Mexico State covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Under by 18.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Tulsa (-14.5) over New Mexico State (-20.6) by 6.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, New Mexico State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. New Mexico State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
New Mexico State won and New Mexico State covered the spread.
