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Week 2 •
Aggie Memorial Stadium

Tulsa14 @FINAL 21New Mexico State

1-0 American Power rating: -14.5
1-0 CUSA Power rating: -20.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TLSA -3.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TLSA -3.1
Edge
+0.4NMSU
See details
◂ favors TLSAfavors NMSU ▸Market: TLSA -3.5
‹ 6.1 TLSA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NMSU
no impact
NMSU
NMSU
no impact
1 TLSA1 NMSU2 TLSA2 NMSUModel: TLSA -3.1

Betting information

Spread
TLSA -3.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
TLSA 28.5 – 25.0 NMSU

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

New Mexico State defeated Tulsa 21–14 in a one-score game. New Mexico State covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at Tulsa -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tulsa -3.1. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Tulsa 6.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Tulsa vs New Mexico State?

New Mexico State

Clutch Quarterback Play

Logan Fife threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Gavin Harris with 3:23 remaining to secure a 21-14 victory, demonstrating poise under pressure and the ability to lead a game-winning drive.

Passing Offense Strength

Fife completed 27 of 44 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, indicating a reliable passing attack that can move the ball effectively through the air.

Rushing Attack Struggles

The Aggies managed only 39 rushing yards on 26 carries, highlighting a significant weakness on the ground that could be exploited by future opponents.

Defensive Resilience

Despite allowing a late go-ahead touchdown, the defense held Tulsa to 14 points and forced key stops, including limiting the Golden Hurricane to just 229 total passing yards from two quarterbacks.

Special Teams Contribution

Ryan Hawk made field goals of 46 and 38 yards, providing crucial points in a low-scoring first half and early fourth quarter, showing reliability in the kicking game.

What were the weather conditions for Tulsa vs New Mexico State?

At kickoff, conditions at Aggie Memorial Stadium were Cloudy, 72°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Tulsa travels 673 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Tulsa arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

New Mexico State won by 7 in a one-score game.

New Mexico State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 18.5 points.

How do Tulsa and New Mexico State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tulsa (-14.5) over New Mexico State (-20.6) by 6.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, New Mexico State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. New Mexico State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Tulsa and New Mexico State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

New Mexico State won and New Mexico State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 7, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

72°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity68%
Wind3 mph NNE
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Tulsa at New Mexico State: aerial view of Aggie Memorial Stadium, wind from the NNE at 2.5 mph, gusting to 4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM MDT
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity
28,853
Elevation
3,970 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TulsaAway New Mexico StateHome
This week673 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total673 miles0 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days

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