Nevada defeated Sacramento State 20–17 in a nail-biter. Sacramento State covered by 6.5; Game went Under by 18.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Mackay Stadium were Clear, 65.7°F, Feels Like 65.7°F with winds of 8.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
65.7°F
Sacramento State had two apparent go-ahead touchdowns in the final minute nullified by penalties (holding and a pass interference), leading to a missed field goal and a loss. This shows a lack of discipline in critical moments.
Williams completed 10 of 13 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown, and also ran effectively, showing he can move the ball. However, the offense stalled in the red zone late.
Nevada rushed for 268 yards, including 115 from quarterback Chubba Purdy, indicating Sacramento State's run defense is vulnerable and needs improvement.
The Hornets missed a 41-yard field goal that would have tied the game, and had an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the miss, highlighting special teams and composure issues.
Sacramento State travels 110 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Nevada won by 3 in a nail-biter.
Sacramento State covered the spread.
The total went Under by 18.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Nevada (-16.1) over Sacramento State (-18.0) by 1.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Nevada brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Nevada won and Sacramento State covered the spread.
