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Week 2 •
Mackay Stadium

Sacramento State17 @FINAL 20Nevada

0-1 Big Sky Power rating: -18.0
0-1 MW Power rating: -16.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NEV -9.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
NEV -5.0
Edge
-4.5SAC
See details
◂ favors SACfavors NEV ▸Market: NEV -9.5
NEV
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NEV
no impact
no impact
NEV
no impact
2 SAC2 NEV4 SAC4 NEVModel: NEV -5.0

Betting information

Spread
NEV -9.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
SAC 23.0 – 32.5 NEV

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Nevada defeated Sacramento State 20–17 in a nail-biter. Sacramento State covered by 6.5; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at Nevada -9.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Nevada -5.0 - a gap of 4.5 points toward Sacramento State, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Sacramento State vs Nevada?

Sacramento State

Late-game collapse due to penalties

Sacramento State had two apparent go-ahead touchdowns in the final minute nullified by penalties (holding and a pass interference), leading to a missed field goal and a loss. This shows a lack of discipline in critical moments.

Strong offensive performance by Cardell Williams

Williams completed 10 of 13 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown, and also ran effectively, showing he can move the ball. However, the offense stalled in the red zone late.

Defensive struggles against the run

Nevada rushed for 268 yards, including 115 from quarterback Chubba Purdy, indicating Sacramento State's run defense is vulnerable and needs improvement.

Missed opportunities and field goal woes

The Hornets missed a 41-yard field goal that would have tied the game, and had an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the miss, highlighting special teams and composure issues.

What were the weather conditions for Sacramento State vs Nevada?

At kickoff, conditions at Mackay Stadium were Clear, 66°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Sacramento State travels 110 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Nevada won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Sacramento State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 18.5 points.

How do Sacramento State and Nevada compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Nevada (-16.1) over Sacramento State (-18.0) by 1.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Nevada brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Sacramento State and Nevada?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Nevada won and Sacramento State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Clear

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity47%
Wind8 mph W
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Sacramento State at Nevada: aerial view of Mackay Stadium, wind from the W at 8.1 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM PDT
Venue
Mackay Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
4,619 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Sacramento StateAway NevadaHome
This week110 miles0 miles
Last week2,669 miles4,402 miles
Season total2,779 miles4,402 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days

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