App State defeated Lindenwood 20–13 in a one-score game. Lindenwood covered by 22.5; Game went Under by 21.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Kidd Brewer Stadium were Light rain shower, 66.7°F, Feels Like 66.7°F with winds of 5.8 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
66.7°F
App State gained 503 total yards, with AJ Swann throwing for 292 yards and a 72-yard TD on the first play, and Rashod Dubinion rushing for 194 yards. However, four turnovers (three lost fumbles, one interception) kept the game close against an FCS opponent.
The Mountaineers sacked Lindenwood's quarterback eight times and held the Lions to minus-1 rushing yard, showcasing a disruptive defensive line that can control the line of scrimmage.
After Lindenwood cut the lead to 20-13 and recovered an onside kick, Elijah McCantos intercepted a deep fourth-down pass to seal the victory, highlighting the defense's ability to make game-saving plays under pressure.
Despite the win, App State's four turnovers (including three lost fumbles) nearly cost them the game against an FCS team. This trend could be exploited by stronger opponents if not corrected.
Lindenwood travels 516 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Lindenwood arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
App State won by 7 in a one-score game.
Lindenwood covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 21.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour App State (-12.6) over Lindenwood (-32.0) by 19.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. App State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
App State won and Lindenwood covered the spread.
