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Week 2 •
Jordan-Hare Stadium

Ball State3 @FINAL 42Auburn

0-1 MAC Power rating: -19.8
1-0 SEC Power rating: 11.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AUB -42.5
PM Implied
AUB -25.4
Blue Chip model
AUB -33.1
Edge
-9.4BALL
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors AUB ▸Market: AUB -42.5
31.5 › AUB
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AUB
no impact
no impact
no impact
AUB
5 BALL5 AUB10 BALL10 AUBModel: AUB -33.1

Betting information

Spread
AUB -42.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
BALL 5.0 – 47.5 AUB
Prediction markets
AUB 99% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Auburn defeated Ball State 42–3 in a dominant performance. Ball State covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 7.5. The market closed at Auburn -42.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Auburn -33.1 - a gap of 9.4 points toward Ball State, of which 8.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Ball State vs Auburn?

Ball State

Offensive Struggles Continue

Ball State managed only 68 total yards, including -3 rushing yards, and scored just 3 points, marking the second straight game without a touchdown. The offense's inability to sustain drives or score puts immense pressure on the defense.

Defensive Effort Wasted

Despite holding Auburn to a respectable performance at times, the defense was on the field for extended periods due to offensive ineptitude. This fatigue contributed to Auburn's 42-point outburst, highlighting the need for offensive improvement.

Quarterback Under Siege

Kiael Kelly completed 10 of 16 passes for 71 yards but was sacked six times, reflecting poor pass protection. The offensive line must improve to give Kelly time and establish any rhythm.

Next Opponent Opportunity

Hosting New Hampshire next week provides a chance to reset against an FCS opponent. Ball State must fix offensive issues, particularly the run game and pass protection, to avoid a third straight loss.

What were the weather conditions for Ball State vs Auburn?

At kickoff, conditions at Jordan-Hare Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 84°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 525 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Ball State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Auburn won by 39 in a dominant performance.

Ball State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 7.5 points.

How do Ball State and Auburn compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Auburn (11.7) over Ball State (-19.8) by 31.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Auburn brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ball State and Auburn?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Auburn won and Ball State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind5 mph NNE
Gusts10 mph
Heat index84°F
Wind map for Ball State at Auburn: aerial view of Jordan-Hare Stadium, wind from the NNE at 4.7 mph, gusting to 9.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Capacity
88,043
Elevation
686 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Ball StateAway AuburnHome
This week525 miles0 miles
Last week161 miles1,371 miles
Season total686 miles1,371 miles
Body clock19:3018:30
Rest7 days7 days

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