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Week 2 •
Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Missouri State21 @FINAL 20Marshall

0-1 CUSA Power rating: -16.8
0-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MRSH -7.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
MRSH -11.0
Edge
+3.5MRSH
See details
◂ favors MOSTfavors MRSH ▸Market: MRSH -7.5
9.1 › MRSH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MRSH
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MOST2 MRSH4 MOST4 MRSHModel: MRSH -11.0

Betting information

Spread
MRSH -7.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
MOST 23.0 – 30.5 MRSH

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri State defeated Marshall 21–20 in a nail-biter. Missouri State covered by 8.5; Game went Under by 12.5. The market closed at Marshall -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Marshall -11.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Marshall, of which 2.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Marshall 9.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Missouri State vs Marshall?

Missouri State

Historic First FBS Win

Missouri State secured their first-ever win as an FBS program, defeating Marshall 21-20 on the road. This victory ended Marshall's nine-game home win streak and 15-game home opening win streak, marking a significant milestone for the Bears.

Jacob Clark's Clutch Performance

Quarterback Jacob Clark threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 8-yard pass to Jeron Askren with 2:12 remaining. He also surpassed 5,000 career passing yards and has now thrown for 200+ yards in 14 of 18 career starts, showcasing his reliability.

Resilient Comeback and Defensive Stand

After trailing 20-7 in the third quarter, Missouri State mounted a comeback with a 52-yard touchdown pass and a late 80-yard drive. The defense then forced Marshall to turn over on downs, losing 5 yards in four plays, sealing the win.

Offensive Explosiveness

The Bears' passing attack featured big plays, with touchdown passes of 57 and 52 yards to Ramone Green Jr. and Jmariyae Robinson, respectively. This deep threat ability could be a key factor in future games against FBS opponents.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri State vs Marshall?

At kickoff, conditions at Joan C. Edwards Stadium were Mist, 69°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 600 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Missouri State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Missouri State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Missouri State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 12.5 points.

How do Missouri State and Marshall compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Marshall (-7.7) over Missouri State (-16.8) by 9.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Marshall brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Marshall?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won and Missouri State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Mist

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity97%
Wind2 mph SSW
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Missouri State at Marshall: aerial view of Joan C. Edwards Stadium, wind from the SSW at 1.8 mph, gusting to 3.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM EDT
Venue
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Capacity
30,475
Elevation
554 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Missouri StateAway MarshallHome
This week600 miles0 miles
Last week2,842 miles626 miles
Season total3,441 miles626 miles
Body clock17:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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