ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026
Missouri State defeated Marshall 21–20 in a nail-biter. Missouri State covered by 8.5; Game went Under by 12.5. The market closed at Marshall -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Marshall -11.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Marshall, of which 2.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Marshall 9.1 points stronger on a neutral field.
Missouri State secured their first-ever win as an FBS program, defeating Marshall 21-20 on the road. This victory ended Marshall's nine-game home win streak and 15-game home opening win streak, marking a significant milestone for the Bears.
Quarterback Jacob Clark threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 8-yard pass to Jeron Askren with 2:12 remaining. He also surpassed 5,000 career passing yards and has now thrown for 200+ yards in 14 of 18 career starts, showcasing his reliability.
After trailing 20-7 in the third quarter, Missouri State mounted a comeback with a 52-yard touchdown pass and a late 80-yard drive. The defense then forced Marshall to turn over on downs, losing 5 yards in four plays, sealing the win.
The Bears' passing attack featured big plays, with touchdown passes of 57 and 52 yards to Ramone Green Jr. and Jmariyae Robinson, respectively. This deep threat ability could be a key factor in future games against FBS opponents.
At kickoff, conditions at Joan C. Edwards Stadium were Mist, 69°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Mist
69°F
| Measure | Missouri StateAway | MarshallHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 600 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | 2,842 miles | 626 miles |
| Season total | 3,441 miles | 626 miles |
| Body clock | 17:00 | 18:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
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