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Week 2 •
AlamodomeIndoor

Texas State43 @FINAL 36UTSA

1-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -6.5
0-1 American Power rating: -3.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UTSA -4.5
PM Implied
UTSA -3.6
Blue Chip model
UTSA -7.3
Edge
+2.8UTSA
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors UTSA ▸Market: UTSA -4.5
UTSA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UTSA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 TXST2 UTSA4 TXST4 UTSAModel: UTSA -7.3

Betting information

Spread
UTSA -4.5
Total
64.5
Odds implied score
TXST 30.0 – 34.5 UTSA
Prediction markets
UTSA 64% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Texas State defeated UTSA 43–36 in a one-score game. Texas State covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 14.5. The market closed at UTSA -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UTSA -7.3, an edge of 2.8 points toward UTSA. Blue Chip Analytics had rated UTSA 3.5 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Texas State vs UTSA?

Texas State

Explosive Offense

Texas State's offense generated 951 total yards, with Brad Jackson throwing for 286 yards and Beau Sparks catching five passes for 155 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown. Robert Henry added 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard run.

Defensive Stand

The Texas State defense forced three straight incompletions on UTSA's final drive to secure a turnover on downs, with Ryan Nolan recording 11 tackles and Kenard Snyder getting the lone sack.

Momentum and Rivalry

Texas State has won two straight against UTSA in the I-35 Rivalry, improving to 2-0 on the season. The team showed resilience with six lead changes and a tie, taking the lead for good on the first play of the fourth quarter.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs UTSA?

This game was played indoors at Alamodome in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 47 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas State won by 7 in a one-score game.

Texas State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 14.5 points.

How do Texas State and UTSA compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UTSA (-3.0) over Texas State (-6.5) by 3.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UTSA brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and UTSA?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Texas State won and Texas State covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Alamodome is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for Texas State at UTSA: aerial view of Alamodome

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Alamodome
Capacity
64,000
Elevation
738 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway UTSAHome
This week47 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game304 miles
Season total47 miles304 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest6 days7 days

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