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Week 2 •
Glass Bowl

Western Kentucky21 @FINAL 45Toledo

2-0 CUSA Power rating: -13.1
0-1 MAC Power rating: -1.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TOL -7.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TOL -14.6
Edge
+7.1TOL
See details
◂ favors WKUfavors TOL ▸Market: TOL -7.5
11.7 › TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TOL
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 WKU5 TOLModel: TOL -14.6

Betting information

Spread
TOL -7.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
WKU 24.5 – 32.0 TOL

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Toledo defeated Western Kentucky 45–21 to secure a comfortable win. Toledo covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 9.5. The market closed at Toledo -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Toledo -14.6 - a gap of 7.1 points toward Toledo, of which 6.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Western Kentucky vs Toledo?

Western Kentucky

Turnover Troubles

Western Kentucky committed a costly fumble on their first drive, leading to a quick Toledo touchdown, and later gave up a pick-six, contributing to a 14-0 deficit early. These turnovers were critical in setting the tone for the game.

Defensive Struggles Against the Run

The Hilltoppers allowed 307 rushing yards, including 163 from Chip Trayanum and 91 from Kenji Christian. This inability to stop the run was a major factor in Toledo's 31-point unanswered run.

Offensive Bright Spots

Quarterback Maverick McIvor threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns, and Moussa Barry had 110 receiving yards. Despite the loss, the passing game showed potential that could be built upon.

Slow Start and Inability to Respond

After falling behind 14-0 early, Western Kentucky scored a touchdown to make it 14-7, but then allowed 31 consecutive points. The team struggled to regain momentum after the initial deficit.

What were the weather conditions for Western Kentucky vs Toledo?

At kickoff, conditions at Glass Bowl were Cloudy, 55°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Western Kentucky travels 356 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Western Kentucky arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Toledo won by 24 to secure a comfortable win.

Toledo covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 9.5 points.

How do Western Kentucky and Toledo compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (-1.4) over Western Kentucky (-13.1) by 11.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Toledo brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Western Kentucky and Toledo?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Toledo won and Toledo covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 6, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

55°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph WNW
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Western Kentucky at Toledo: aerial view of Glass Bowl, wind from the WNW at 4.3 mph, gusting to 8.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Glass Bowl
Capacity
26,038
Elevation
610 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Western KentuckyAway ToledoHome
This week356 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game510 miles
Season total356 miles510 miles
Body clock18:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days

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