Week 3 • September 13, 2025, 07:30 PM UTC
1-1
ACC
Power Rank: 8.9
28 FINAL 10
1-1
CUSA
Power Rank: -15.1
Missouri State covered by 9.5 | Game went Under by 23.5
SMU @ Missouri State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 3
Kick Off (at stadium): 02:30 PM CDT
Stadium: Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity: 17,500
Elevation: 1339 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -27.5
Total (O/U) 61.5
Expected Score SMU 44.5 - 17.0 MOST
Power Rank Implied Line SMU +24.0
Prediction Markets SMU 97% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

31.6°F

Wind Chill: 24.8°F
Wind: 7.4 mph SW
Gusts: 14.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 86%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

SMU (Away)

This Week: 360.2 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3309.5 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:30
Rest Days: 7

Missouri State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1199.5 miles
Season Total: 4041.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:30
Rest Days: 7

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line SMU -27.5
Total Points 61.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
SMU 8.9
Missouri State -15.1
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 360 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity 17,500
Elevation 1339 ft
🌤️ Weather: Clear
Temperature 31.6°F
Wind Speed 7.4 mph
Your Line Missouri State -24.0
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

SMU

Concerning Pattern of Late-Game Collapses

SMU dominated for 3.5 quarters, leading 38-24 with 8:38 remaining, but completely collapsed in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. This marks their third consecutive loss to FBS opponents (Clemson, Penn State, Baylor), suggesting a troubling inability to close out games when holding substantial leads.

Kicking Game Reliability Issues

Kicker Collin Rogers missed two crucial field goals - falling well short on a 57-yard attempt to end regulation and going wide right on a 38-yard try in the second overtime. These misses directly contributed to the loss and raise questions about the team's ability to convert in pressure situations.

Explosive Offensive Capability Remains Intact

Despite the loss, SMU's offense showed elite big-play ability with QB Kevin Jennings throwing for 296 yards and three TDs, including two 75-yard scoring strikes. Romello Brinson (4 catches, 126 yards) and the rushing attack (TJ Harden's 115 yards, 3 TDs) demonstrated the team can move the ball effectively against quality opponents.

Defensive Vulnerabilities in Crunch Time

SMU's defense allowed Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson to throw for 440 yards and completely broke down in the final 5:23 of regulation, surrendering two touchdown passes that erased a 14-point lead. The inability to get stops when protecting a lead is a major red flag for future close games.

Schedule Provides Bounce-Back Opportunity

SMU's next game is against Missouri State, a first-year FBS team in Conference USA, which should provide an opportunity to rebuild confidence and work on closing out games. However, the team needs to prove they can maintain focus against lesser competition after this devastating collapse.