Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 04:00 PM UTC
0-1
Big 12
Power Rank: 9.3
48 FINAL 45
1-0
ACC
Power Rank: 9.9
Baylor covered by 6.5 | Game went Over by 27.5
Baylor @ SMU Preview

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 AM CDT
Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity: 32,000
Elevation: 594 ft
HFA Rating: 3.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -3.5
Total (O/U) 65.5
Expected Score BAY 31.0 - 34.5 SMU
Power Rank Implied Line SMU +0.6
Prediction Markets SMU 58% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Sunny

Sunny

54.9°F

Wind Chill: 53.0°F
Wind: 8.1 mph SW
Gusts: 11.2 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 33%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Baylor (Away)

This Week: 90.3 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 90.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 11:00
Rest Days: 7

SMU (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2949.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 11:00
Rest Days: 6

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line SMU -3.5
Total Points 65.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Baylor 9.3
SMU 9.9
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 90 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Baylor +1
🏟️ HFA: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity 32,000
Elevation 594 ft
🌤️ Weather: Sunny
Temperature 54.9°F
Wind Speed 8.1 mph
Your Line SMU +0.6
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Baylor

Sawyer Robertson's Elite Quarterback Play

Robertson threw for 440 yards and 4 TDs, marking his third consecutive 400-yard passing game - making him only the fourth Big 12 QB in 15 years to accomplish this feat. Through two games, he has 850+ yards, 7 TDs, and 0 interceptions, putting him in rare company with only two other FBS quarterbacks since 2000.

Exceptional Clutch Performance and Mental Toughness

After trailing by 14 points with 8:38 left in regulation, Baylor scored twice in the final 5:23 to force overtime, then won in double OT. The team showed remarkable resilience after trailing by at least 10 points four different times, taking their only lead on the game-winning field goal.

Explosive Offensive Production

Baylor accumulated 601 total yards with multiple receivers having big games - Ashtyn Hawkins (10 catches, 145 yards), Josh Cameron (9 catches, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Kobe Prentice (4 catches, 63 yards, 2 TDs). Bryson Washington added 115 rushing yards and 2 TDs, showing a balanced offensive attack.

Strong Bounce-Back Victory

This upset win over #17 SMU represents a significant rebound from their season-opening 38-24 loss to Auburn. The victory extends Baylor's dominance over SMU to 14 straight wins since 1986, demonstrating their ability to perform in rivalry situations.

Favorable Upcoming Schedule

Baylor faces FCS opponent Samford at home next week, providing an opportunity to build momentum and confidence after this emotional double-overtime victory. This should allow them to rest key players and continue developing their offensive rhythm.

SMU

Concerning Pattern of Late-Game Collapses

SMU dominated for 3.5 quarters, leading 38-24 with 8:38 remaining, but completely collapsed in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. This marks their third consecutive loss to FBS opponents (Clemson, Penn State, Baylor), suggesting a troubling inability to close out games when holding substantial leads.

Kicking Game Reliability Issues

Kicker Collin Rogers missed two crucial field goals - falling well short on a 57-yard attempt to end regulation and going wide right on a 38-yard try in the second overtime. These misses directly contributed to the loss and raise questions about the team's ability to convert in pressure situations.

Explosive Offensive Capability Remains Intact

Despite the loss, SMU's offense showed elite big-play ability with QB Kevin Jennings throwing for 296 yards and three TDs, including two 75-yard scoring strikes. Romello Brinson (4 catches, 126 yards) and the rushing attack (TJ Harden's 115 yards, 3 TDs) demonstrated the team can move the ball effectively against quality opponents.

Defensive Vulnerabilities in Crunch Time

SMU's defense allowed Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson to throw for 440 yards and completely broke down in the final 5:23 of regulation, surrendering two touchdown passes that erased a 14-point lead. The inability to get stops when protecting a lead is a major red flag for future close games.

Schedule Provides Bounce-Back Opportunity

SMU's next game is against Missouri State, a first-year FBS team in Conference USA, which should provide an opportunity to rebuild confidence and work on closing out games. However, the team needs to prove they can maintain focus against lesser competition after this devastating collapse.