Week 14 • November 30, 2025, 01:00 AM UTC
8-3
ACC
Power Rank: 14.3
35 FINAL 38
6-5
ACC
Power Rank: -1.3
California covered by 16.5 | Game went Over by 10.5
SMU @ California Preview

General Information

Week: Week 14
Kick Off (at stadium): 05:00 PM PST
Stadium: California Memorial Stadium
Capacity: 52,428
Elevation: 427 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -13.5
Total (O/U) 62.5
Expected Score SMU 38.0 - 24.5 CAL
Power Rank Implied Line SMU +15.6
Prediction Markets SMU 83% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Patchy rain nearby

Patchy rain nearby

53.8°F

Wind Chill: 53.2°F
Wind: 3.8 mph SW
Gusts: 6.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.08"
Humidity: 75%
Rain Chance: 62%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

SMU (Away)

This Week: 1474.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 11861.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

California (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 60.9 miles
Season Total: 15777.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 17:00
Rest Days: 8

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line SMU -13.5
Total Points 62.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
SMU 14.3
California -1.3
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 1475 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: California Memorial Stadium
Capacity 52,428
Elevation 427 ft
🌤️ Weather: Patchy rain nearby
Temperature 53.8°F
Wind Speed 3.8 mph
Your Line California -15.6
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

SMU

Concerning Pattern of Late-Game Collapses

SMU dominated for 3.5 quarters, leading 38-24 with 8:38 remaining, but completely collapsed in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. This marks their third consecutive loss to FBS opponents (Clemson, Penn State, Baylor), suggesting a troubling inability to close out games when holding substantial leads.

Kicking Game Reliability Issues

Kicker Collin Rogers missed two crucial field goals - falling well short on a 57-yard attempt to end regulation and going wide right on a 38-yard try in the second overtime. These misses directly contributed to the loss and raise questions about the team's ability to convert in pressure situations.

Explosive Offensive Capability Remains Intact

Despite the loss, SMU's offense showed elite big-play ability with QB Kevin Jennings throwing for 296 yards and three TDs, including two 75-yard scoring strikes. Romello Brinson (4 catches, 126 yards) and the rushing attack (TJ Harden's 115 yards, 3 TDs) demonstrated the team can move the ball effectively against quality opponents.

Defensive Vulnerabilities in Crunch Time

SMU's defense allowed Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson to throw for 440 yards and completely broke down in the final 5:23 of regulation, surrendering two touchdown passes that erased a 14-point lead. The inability to get stops when protecting a lead is a major red flag for future close games.

Schedule Provides Bounce-Back Opportunity

SMU's next game is against Missouri State, a first-year FBS team in Conference USA, which should provide an opportunity to rebuild confidence and work on closing out games. However, the team needs to prove they can maintain focus against lesser competition after this devastating collapse.

California

Kendrick Raphael emerges as featured back

Transfer RB Kendrick Raphael had a breakout performance with 131 rushing yards and a TD on 7.3 YPC, a massive improvement from his 37-yard debut. This establishes him as the primary ground threat and gives Cal a reliable rushing attack heading into tougher competition.

Dominant defensive performance against overmatched opponent

Cal's defense shut out Texas Southern from touchdowns for the first time since 2021, limiting them to 194 total yards and 3-of-14 on third downs. However, this came against an FCS opponent, so the true test of defensive improvement will come against Minnesota.

Freshman QB Sagapolutele shows steady development

True freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 259 yards with one interception and added a rushing TD, building on his three-TD debut last week. His continued development will be crucial as Cal faces stronger competition in Big Ten play.

Perfect 2-0 start builds momentum but questions remain

Cal is 2-0 for the first time in recent memory, but coach Wilcox emphasized many areas need improvement despite the blowout win. The team's true capabilities will be tested against Minnesota, their first Power 4 opponent of the season.